NYSE ยท Industrials ยท US stocks

GGG Investment Case

Graco Inc

Weekly closeUnavailableDate unavailable
Quarterly results through2026-06-30Annual year-end 2025-12-31
Next results2026-10-28Check the company calendar
SM Virtual Analyst ยท Published assessment
Model ratingNot rated
Price targetNot published

A background review must record this assessment before a rating is published.

Automated model assessment. Assumptions and risks are shown below.

Investment view

The assessment, supporting evidence and main risks.

Publication status

Assessment withheld

A background review must record this assessment before a rating is published.

Outstanding checks and valuation methods โ†“

Lower valuation, stronger profitability.

Year-to-date profit has improved. Review the supporting comparisons before deciding what to pay.

Company observations use the financial and market dates shown in the evidence. They may be newer than the published assessment.

Review conditions
The business

Year-to-date profit has improved

Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 263.4m versus 251.7m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.

Source figures : Year-to-date profit has improved
All company findings
Peer comparison
Lower valuation, stronger profitability

Enterprise value / EBITDA is 16.4ร— for GGG, versus a peer median of 18.7ร—. Its operating margin is 27.4% versus 16.8%. Business mix and growth expectations can explain the difference.

Check the supporting chart
Peer comparison
Borrowing is lower relative to earnings

Net debt / EBITDA: -0.6ร— for GGG, against 1.7ร— across 12 comparable peers.

Check the supporting chart
Margins
More sales are becoming operating profit

The latest quarterly operating margin was 29.6%, +2.1 percentage points from a year earlier. Compare the sales and margin contributions below.

Check the supporting chart
Financial year so far
Year-to-date profit has improved

Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 263.4m versus 251.7m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.

Check the supporting chart
Sales
Quarterly sales are growing

Revenue changed +3.3% from the same quarter last year, through 2026-06-30. The previous quarterโ€™s year-on-year change was +2.2%.

Check the supporting chart
Cash quality
Operating cash covers reported profit

Over the latest four quarters, operating cash was 1.24 times net income. Review receivables, inventory and non-cash charges before judging the gap.

Check the supporting chart
Capital allocation
Cash after capital spending covers payouts

Dividends and buybacks totalled 582.1m versus 617.2m of cash after capital spending over four quarters. Existing cash or borrowing can fund a difference.

Check the supporting chart
Results versus estimates
Recent earnings surprises are mixed

Of the latest 4 comparable quarters, 2 beat the estimate and 2 missed it. Check how price responded; a beat alone is not a reason to buy.

Check the supporting chart

Valuation comments use the starting assumptions. Related findings can reflect the same underlying change; they are not separate votes or a probability of success.

SM Virtual Analyst is an automated review of stored company results and market data. The views below describe the available evidence and identify what to check next.

Business and operations

Revenue, profit, cash generation and the operating measures behind them.

Business assumptions

Follow the operating evidence, compare results with recorded forecasts, and check what funds growth.

Forecast progress โ†“
Assumptions behind the price
The published assessment changes through a formal review. The tests below show how different conditions could affect the business.
Reported results
Separate prices, volumes, costs and investment. A market price relationship alone does not establish a change in company value.
Next results ยท 2026-10-28
Compare what the company reports with the assumptions recorded beforehand. A temporary benefit needs an end date.
Company operations ยท Business drivers

Business drivers

Start with the measures that affect sales, profit and cash. Each chart shows whether the evidence comes from company disclosures or financial statements.

0 of 3 key company measures recorded
Financial measure

Sales growth

3.28%2026-06-30

Compare matching quarters to reduce seasonal effects.

Quarterly statements
Financial measure

Operating margin

29.65%2026-06-30

The part of sales left after operating costs. It does not identify the underlying cause of a change.

Quarterly statements
Financial measure

Cash left from sales

25.25%2026-06-30

Cash after capital spending as a share of revenue. Working capital and seasonal investment can affect one quarter.

Quarterly statements
Company-specific coverage

Not recorded in reviewed disclosures: Organic sales growth, Sales volume, Order backlog. The financial measures above provide context; they do not substitute for these operating measures or establish their cause.

Understand the business

Profit and cash generation

Sales, profitability and cash after investment, compared with the financial history.

Financial results through
2026-06-30
Business description

Graco Inc. designs, manufactures and markets systems and equipment used to move, measure, control, dispense and spray fluids and powders worldwide. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Sales over twelve months$2.27bnTotal sales over twelve months
Operating profit$622.11m27.44% of sales ยท same twelve months
Net income$533.55m23.53% of sales ยท same twelve months
Cash after capital spending$617.23m27.22% of sales ยท same twelve months

Profit and cash flow

The same twelve-month reporting period. Cash after capital spending is before dividends, buybacks and debt repayments.

Operating margin history

Latest reported margin 27.4% ยท Annual-history median 27.0%

Compare annual results with the latest trailing period. The periods may overlap. The median describes the available history; it is not an assumed future margin.

Follow the result back to the accounts.Quarterly and annual financial evidence โ†“

Financial results

The latest reporting periods, earnings quality and the longer financial record.

The business

Company results and cash generation

Start with the latest quarters, then check whether the longer record supports the same view.

Annual results ยท 2025-12-31
Quarterly results

The current financial year

Compare completed quarters with the same periods a year earlier. Annual year-end: 2025-12-31.

Latest quarter ยท 2026-06-30
Reported 2026-07-22
Revenue2.8%2 matched quarters vs last year
Operating profit3.8%2 matched quarters vs last year
Net income4.7%2 matched quarters vs last year
Operating cash-7.3%2 matched quarters vs last year
Cash after capital spending-7.4%2 matched quarters vs last year

Quarterly sales

Same-quarter comparison

Reported revenue in USD. Growth can include acquisitions, exchange-rate changes and price changes.

Quarterly profit

Operating profit shows the business before financing and tax. Net income can also reflect asset sales and other one-off items.

Operating profit changes

Latest quarter against the same quarter last year. The sales effect holds the old margin fixed; the remaining change comes from the margin. These two amounts add up to the change in operating profit.

Quarterly profit and cash

Cash can move sharply between quarters. Check the four-quarter comparison and working-capital changes before drawing a conclusion.

Cash coverage of shareholder payments

Latest four consecutive quarters. Payouts above cash generation need another source of funding, such as existing cash or borrowing.

Working capital and sales

Same quarter one year earlier. Receivables and inventory are balances at the reporting date; sales cover the quarter. Faster growth can tie up cash, but acquisitions and payment timing can also explain a change.

Quarterly results and year-to-date figures
2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31

Year-to-date comparisons require every completed quarter since the annual year-end and a matching prior-year period. Missing periods are not treated as zero. Figures may include subsequent restatements.

Annual results commentary

Cash covered reported profit

Operating cash flow was 1.31 times net income. Working capital and non-cash charges can explain the difference.

See the figures โ†“
Longer view

Annual financial history

Sales and operating profit

Reported financial years. Amounts in USD.

Profit and cash margins

The proportion of sales left as operating profit and cash after capital spending.

Profit compared with cash

Cash after capital spending still has to cover debt repayments and other commitments.

Buybacks, dividends and acquisitions

Cash spent, shown as positive amounts. Compare buybacks with changes in the diluted share count.

Working capital

Inventory and receivables as a percentage of annual sales. Increasing amounts can tie up cash; business seasonality also matters.

Financial statements and sources
Financial yearRevenueOperating profitNet incomeOperating cashCash after capital spendingDiluted sharesPublished
2018-12-311653292000.0436427000.0341054000.0367985000.0314131000.0โ€”2019-01-28
2019-12-311646045000.0424456000.0343853000.0418734000.0290781000.0โ€”2020-01-27
2020-12-311650115000.0391718000.0330456000.0394035000.0322697000.0โ€”2021-01-25
2021-12-311987608000.0531323000.0439866000.0456896000.0323330000.0โ€”2022-01-31
2022-12-312143521000.0572700000.0460645000.0377394000.0176233000.0โ€”2023-01-30
2023-12-312195606000.0646843000.0506511000.0651017000.0466242000.0โ€”2024-01-29
2024-12-312113316000.0570098000.0486084000.0621700000.0514963000.0โ€”2025-01-27
2025-12-312236604000.0610736000.0521839000.0683591000.0637922000.0โ€”2026-01-26

Amounts use each statementโ€™s reported currency. Historical figures can include later restatements. Weighted diluted shares are an annual earnings measure, not the current share count used for valuation.

Earnings quality

Earnings quality

Separate the operating result, financing, tax and share count. Compare the same quarter a year apart.

2025-06-30 โ†’ 2026-06-30

Operating profit explains the largest part of the profit change

Its contribution was $17.61m. The bridge reconciles the two quarters; it does not by itself establish whether the change will repeat.

See the figures โ†“

Check profit against cash received

The latest quarter reported $144.93m net income and $165.49m operating cash. The difference includes non-cash expenses and working capital; one quarter can be seasonal.

See the figures โ†“

Change in quarterly profit

USD. Components add up to the total change. Non-operating items can include interest, investment income and other gains or charges.

Cash conversion

USD. Cash timing can differ from profit recognition. Use several quarters to check whether a difference persists.

Recurring earnings and accounting checks

No reviewed schedule of unusual profit items is recorded. Reported profit is not assumed to be recurring profit.

Growth from pricing, volume, acquisitions and currency is identified only when the company provides a matching breakdown. A financial bridge explains the arithmetic, not the business cause. Gains are positive and charges negative in the unusual-item schedule.

Growth and capital

Investment and cash requirements

Compare the cash generated by the business with investment, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks.

Cash generated and cash used

Cash after capital spending

Cash after capital spending is before acquisitions, dividends and buybacks. A full remaining-cash figure is shown only when all those amounts are matched; missing payments are never zero. A shortfall may be met by cash balances, borrowing or asset sales. These figures do not establish the funding source or the return on new investment.

Investment returns and funding

These cash measures show funding needs. They do not calculate the return on new investment. That requires comparable invested capital, after-tax operating profit and a supported required return. Acquisitions, disposals and accounting changes need separate treatment. Check the return-on-capital comparison in Peers & sector where those inputs are available.

Share price and peers

Performance, earnings and valuation compared with the market and other companies.

Earnings and price

Earnings and share price

Compare reported earnings, the marketโ€™s response and changes in expectations.

Reported earnings and estimates

2 beats and 2 misses across the last 4 comparable quarters. Earnings-release figures may use an adjusted basis and differ from the financial statements.

Earnings announcements and price comparisons

Weekly prices are matched only after a recorded results date. A reporting-week move includes other news. EPS from earnings releases may differ from statutory diluted EPS. Historical revisions can change this comparison; it is not a trading backtest.

Peers and sector

Peer and sector comparison

Compare the price of the business with what it earns. Then check whether the wider sector is helping.

Same published week
2026-09-11

Lower valuation, stronger profitability

Enterprise value / EBITDA is 16.4ร— for GGG, versus a peer median of 18.7ร—. Its operating margin is 27.4% versus 16.8%. Business mix and growth expectations can explain the difference.

Profitability and valuation, together

GGG is the larger teal dot. Each other dot is a named peer. Move right for greater profitability; move up for a higher valuation multiple.

Compare the actual figures

GGG is shown in teal. The comparison uses 12 selected peers out of 63 other covered listings in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

Peer comparison table and financial dates

Active US common listings in the same industry; up to 12 peers nearest in market value. Identified preferred shares, warrants, rights and units are excluded. Matching company names and labelled share classes count once, using the listing with the largest stored market value; the target's other identified classes are excluded. This metadata screen is not a complete issuer-identity check. Medians require at least three companies per measure. All use the same published week and factor universe. Financial periods can differ and are shown below. This is a comparison of current constituents, not a backtest.

The wider Industrials sector

Sector performance

These figures cover other active US listings in the same sector and publication week. Sector membership is broader than the selected industry peers.

56%Higher over one year530 listings with adjusted-price changes
65%Reported a profit531 listings with net income
6.7%Median adjusted-price changeEach listing has equal weight

Company versus sector

Percentage measures from the same published week. Profitability, growth and price performance describe different things; they are not added together.

Sector comparison

Operating marginGGG 27.4% ยท Sector median 7.0%521 other listings with this measure

Revenue growth over one yearGGG 4.6% ยท Sector median 7.0%526 other listings with this measure

Adjusted-price change over one yearGGG -8.3% ยท Sector median 6.7%530 other listings with this measure

What the peer measures mean
Price / earnings
The share price divided by trailing statement earnings per share. Lower can mean cheaper earnings, weaker growth or greater risk. Loss-making companies have no meaningful P/E.
Enterprise value / EBITDA
Enterprise value includes equity and net debt. EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. This multiple does not account for the capital spending needed to keep the business running.
Operating margin
The percentage of revenue left as operating profit, before interest and tax. Product mix and accounting policies affect comparisons.
Return on invested capital
After-tax operating profit relative to capital invested in the business. A higher return can reflect a stronger business or a smaller recorded capital base.
Cash after capital spending / enterprise value
Cash after capital spending divided by enterprise value. Check whether cash flow is repeatable and how much must cover debt and other commitments.
Cash after capital spending / profit
Cash after capital spending divided by net income over the same trailing period. A value of 1 means one dollar of cash remains for each dollar of profit. Growth investment and working capital can change this ratio.
Net debt / EBITDA
Debt less cash divided by trailing EBITDA. A negative value means cash exceeds debt. Debt maturities and interest costs still need separate checks.
Revenue growth over one year
The change in revenue over one year. Acquisitions, disposals, exchange rates and changes in pricing can affect the result.
Annual revenue growth over three years
The annual rate of revenue growth across three years. Compare it with the latest year to see whether growth has accelerated or slowed.
Adjusted-price change over one year
Change across the stored one-year adjusted-price window. These factor histories include dividend adjustments; they are separate from the quoted-price comparisons. Current constituents are used.

Comparisons use stored statement-based factors. Earnings-release EPS can use a different basis from these financial statements. Missing measures and unprofitable earnings multiples are omitted. Financial periods differ across issuers; matching publication weeks does not make their businesses identical.

Consider the alternatives

Alternative companies

Compare the trade-offs across closely sized businesses in the same industry. This list is not an investment ranking.

Same price week. Financial periods no more than 110 days apart.

GGG and WTS

WTS compares more favourably on sales growth.

The trade-off is less favourable ev / ebitda, operating margin, net debt / ebitda.

WTS financial period 2026-06-30. Published prices 2026-09-11. Differences in product mix, geography and accounting can limit comparability.

Read WTS's case โ†—
Available comparisons; lower multiples alone do not establish value
MeasureGGGWTS
EV / EBITDA16.40ร—19.96ร—
Operating margin27.44%19.24%
Net debt / EBITDA-0.63ร—-0.41ร—
Sales growth4.58%17.13%

Valuation and target

The published target, its assumptions and alternative valuation methods.

Target & rating

Target publication requirements

Lower valuation, stronger profitability. Year-to-date profit has improved. Review the supporting comparisons before deciding what to pay.

Method and rating rules โ†“
Valuation methodCash flow across the cycle

Loss periods, gaps or differences in the earnings basis make P/E less useful here. This assessment uses operating profit, capital spending and the balance sheet instead. Loss years remain in the margin history.

No investment rating is assigned.

The assessment checks earnings and, where suitable, an alternative cash-flow approach. It still needs current financials, complete inputs and a model suitable for automatic publication. โ€œNot ratedโ€ means those requirements are not met; it does not mean Hold.

  • A background review must record this assessment before a rating is published.
Supporting evidence

Year-to-date profit has improved

Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 263.4m versus 251.7m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.

Review the evidence โ†“

Capital earns more than at peers

Return on invested capital: 24.7% for GGG, against 11.5% across 12 comparable peers.

Review the evidence โ†“
Method, rating rules and data checks

Methods are considered by business suitability and completeness of evidence. The model does not select whichever produces the highest target.

Valuation methods checked
MethodInput checksOutstanding requirements
Earnings and historical valuationIncompleteA positive weekly close from the last 14 days is required. P/E is usable in 0 of 0 weeks. At least 52 usable weeks and 70% coverage are required; excluding too many loss or missing weeks would bias the target. Positive trailing earnings-release EPS must cover the same four quarters as the statements and be available at the latest weekly close. 52 consecutive weekly price changes are required.
Cash flow across the cycle ยท SelectedIncompleteA positive weekly close from the last 14 days is required. 52 consecutive weekly price changes are required. Recorded cash-flow, investment, debt, cash, preferred stock, minority interests and share-count inputs are required; missing amounts are not assumed to be zero. Missing: preferred stock, minority interest.

Cash flow across the cycle

This method keeps both weak and strong years in view. It values cash from the operations after tax, capital spending and working capital, then deducts net debt and other ownership claims.

The central operating margin is the median of up to five annual margins plus the latest four-quarter margin, including losses. It is reached over three years. Sales growth starts at the median of four quarterly year-on-year changes.

Starting sales growth is limited to โˆ’10% to +15% and moves towards 2% by year five. Depreciation must have a matching reported period and exclude impairment charges. An unrelated EBITDA-minus-EBIT difference is not used. The spending floor moves towards the median recorded capital-spending ratio, with a floor at depreciation. This historical total does not identify maintenance separately from expansion spending. Total capital spending must also cover depreciation plus the assets needed for extra sales. Working capital is funded in proportion to extra sales; falling sales do not automatically release cash.

The central required return is 12%, an SM assumption rather than a measured cost of capital. The weaker case uses 14% with no continuing growth; the stronger case uses 10% with 2.5% continuing growth. Recovery margins, growth and spending also change in each scenario.

Cash after the target date is discounted to that date. Earlier positive cash is assumed distributed, so it is not added to the target. Any earlier deficit after debt interest increases net debt. The model holds the share count and other ownership claims constant. It does not assume future buybacks, asset sales or a refinancing.

This is a going-concern cash-flow model. It cannot establish asset sale proceeds or restructuring recoveries. A negative equity result is shown as zero, reflecting limited liability rather than a liquidation estimate.

Rating criteria

Buy requires at least 15% upside, a higher threshold for volatile stocks, and satisfactory cash, debt and weaker-case checks. Sell requires at least 15% central price downside. Hold covers the remaining rated cases. Failed data checks produce โ€œNot ratedโ€.

For Buy, operating cash must cover at least 80% of statement profit and cash after capital spending must be positive. Debt must be covered by cash, or net debt / EBITDA must be no more than 3 with interest cover of at least 3. The cash-flow method uses the central longer-run operating margin for these debt tests. A loss-making company must still have positive operating cash and cash after capital spending for Buy eligibility.

Publication safeguards. Model estimates below one quarter or above four times the current price require a separate valuation review. Cash-flow estimates also require review when more than 90% of their absolute present value comes from after year five. These are SM review thresholds; they do not cap the calculated value or move it towards the market price.

This is an automated research assessment. The policy has not yet been validated against subsequent stock returns. It does not account for your portfolio, tax position or investment needs.

New data refreshes the evidence. A formal review determines whether the published assessment changes. Editing the valuation controls below changes your scenario only. Saving your case preserves this dated assessment alongside your assumptions.

Data checks ยท reviewed 2026-09-17
CheckStatusEvidence
Recent priceReview neededA positive weekly close from the last 14 days is required.
Current financialsPassedStatements through 2026-06-30; factor prices dated 2026-09-11.
Price riskReview needed52 consecutive weekly price changes are required.
Operating historyPassed5 annual results, retaining operating losses and unusually strong years.
Quarterly operating resultsPassedFour quarters through 2026-06-30.
Cash-flow and ownership inputsReview neededRecorded cash-flow, investment, debt, cash, preferred stock, minority interests and share-count inputs are required; missing amounts are not assumed to be zero. Missing: preferred stock, minority interest.
Depreciation basisPassedFour matching quarters of operating income and reported depreciation are required. An unrelated EBITDA-minus-EBIT difference is not treated as depreciation.
Matching currencyPassedUSD statements and share price.
Price observationsReview neededPrices must be positive, finite, in date order and have no duplicate weeks.
Price dateReview neededThe latest completed close must be no more than 14 days old.

Model version: sm-assessment-14-operating-capital. Published price: $ on . The upside above uses the latest close. Review policy and original record โ†“

Price and valuation assumptions

A current target is not published. The outstanding checks must be resolved before a price disagreement can be assessed.

Required before a comparison

  • A background review must record this assessment before a rating is published.
Outstanding checks and valuation method โ†“
Review conditions

Conditions for a review

Numerical review thresholds have not been recorded for this assessment.

New results, restatements, material disclosures and unresolved share changes require review. A sustained price change can change the rating comparison without changing the target. Company evidence, risk and uncertainty must still support the classification. Dividends are assessed separately where verified.

Risk and portfolio

Funding needs, adverse conditions and the effect of a holding on your portfolio.

Business risks

Business and financing risks

Review borrowing and company disclosures alongside interest rates and commodity markets.

Debt and cash

Balance-sheet figures from 2026-09-11. Cash may be needed to run the business.

If borrowing costs rise

Illustration: interest rates rise by 1 percentage point on the stated portion of debt. Existing fixed rates and hedges may delay or reduce the effect. This is not a debt-maturity schedule.

Portfolio fit

Portfolio comparison

Compare your current mix with a proposed holding in GGG. Holdings entered here are used for this calculation and are not saved.

Current weights must total 100%. The purchase reduces all existing weights proportionally. Up to 15 US stocks; at least 52 shared weeks of prices are required.

Review and sources

Results against forecasts, your saved research, review decisions and data checks.

Awaiting first reviewFirst review pending

A background review must record this assessment before a rating is published.

Next scheduled reviewPendingEarlier if material company evidence changes
Last data checkPendingReview rules & record โ†“
Report guide

Understand the business. Review sales, profit and cash generation. Open the evidence link beneath each conclusion.

Test the assumptions. A valuation is a scenario. Change growth, margins and the discount rate to see how much the result depends on them.

Keep track. Save your own reasons and conditions. Revisit them after results. Figures show their observation dates. Data notes explain unavailable information.

Data notes ยท 3 to review
  • Preferred stock or minority-interest amounts are missing. Enterprise-to-common-equity valuations are withheld until these claims are known.
  • A required data check failed. Review the data and model checks before using a valuation.
  • Analyst forecast history is not yet available. Earnings-release history and reported financial results are shown where recorded.
Forecasts and results

Forecasts and reported results

Follow the forecasts behind the current assessment. Earlier versions remain in the full record. Price movements alone do not settle the business case.

Full forecast record โ†“

No forecast matching the current assessment has been recorded. Earlier forecasts, if any, remain in the full record. The published assessment and its review conditions remain available below.

Forecasts are frozen when recorded. Actuals use the matching full financial year or four reported quarters, on the forecast's stated profit basis. Dated results are retained; restatements are recorded separately. Forecasts made after the period began are identified. Revisions, overlapping periods and preview records are not independent evidence of forecasting skill.

Next results

Next results and saved research

Set measurable conditions for your investment case, then compare them with new company data.

Expected 2026-10-28
Check 1

Repeatability of profit growth

The latest quarterly margin changed +2.1 percentage points from a year earlier. Check sales volumes, pricing and unusual gains in the next filing.

Review the starting point โ†“
Check 2

Valuation relative to peers

Recheck the valuation gap alongside profitability and growth after new results. A discount alone does not establish value.

Review the starting point โ†“

Margin and cash conditions use the latest trailing statements where available. Revenue growth compares reported annual years. Factor figures through 2026-09-11.

Quarterly sales growth+3.3%

Through 2026-06-30. Compare the next quarter with the same period a year earlier. Check whether growth speeds up or slows down.

Quarterly operating margin+29.6%

Through 2026-06-30. Check whether the next results retain the latest margin. Separate recurring improvements from one-off gains.

Sales growth this financial year+2.8%

Through 2026-06-30. Check the cumulative result as each new quarter is added. Compare the same number of quarters last year.

Revenue+5.8%

Compare growth with the previous year and the current forecast.

Operating margin+27.4%

Check whether operating profit keeps pace with sales.

Cash generation1.24ร—

Check whether profit is turning into operating cash.

Borrowing-0.63ร—

Check whether debt is falling relative to earnings.

Save your investment case

Keep a dated copy of your reasoning, valuation assumptions and conditions. New saves preserve earlier versions.

Conditions to follow
Sign in to save

Your saved versions

Conditions are checked against the latest available figures when you open this report. This does not place trades or send email alerts.

Sign in to keep your research and review changes over time.

A dated investment case

Assessment changes

The report can be explored now. A formal background review records the first rating and its reasons.

View analyst record โ†—
When we review a rating
Regular review

Every 90 days

Recheck the business, assumptions and valuation. The target keeps its original end date until that horizon expires. A routine data refresh does not issue a new rating.

Earlier review

When the evidence changes

New results, revised financial statements, a material company disclosure, a change in the valuation method or failing cash and debt checks trigger a review. Same-period guidance revisions require at least 5% for EPS or 10% for other measures. Consensus EPS revisions require 10% and at least three analysts.

Price movements

Wait for a sustained change

A price-only signal must persist for 14 days across separate completed weeks. Rating changes normally wait at least 30 days and must clear five-percentage-point entry and exit bands. A direct Buy-to-Sell or Sell-to-Buy change requires material company evidence.

Data and events

Suspend an unreliable call

Missing essential data, an unresolved material event or a share-basis change can suspend a call immediately. An expired target or data check more than three days overdue is not shown as an active rating. Original assessments remain in the record.

A reviewed target normally changes only by 5% or more; a rating change or an expired horizon can also require a new assessment. These are explicit research-policy thresholds, not statistically proven trading rules. Policy sm-review-2-research.

Forecast record

Forecast accuracy

Forecast errors in sales, operating profit and cash are recorded separately from share-price outcomes. Preview records never enter live accuracy figures.

There are no completed live operating forecasts to assess yet. A useful record takes time; historical fits and preview scenarios are not substituted for it.

Forecasts are frozen when recorded. Actuals use the matching full financial year or four reported quarters, on the forecast's stated profit basis. Dated results are retained; restatements are recorded separately. Forecasts made after the period began are identified. Revisions, overlapping periods and preview records are not independent evidence of forecasting skill. Read the share-price assessment record โ†—

Data and model checks

Data validation

Automated checks cover dates, units and accounting relationships. A matched filing fact confirms that reported amount and basis; it does not establish recurring earnings or validate a forecast.

Operating company

Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.

16 of 18 checks passed. 0 financial cells have a matched filing basis; 100 other recorded cells have not been matched to a standard filing fact here. Missing company-specific measures and forecast coverage are explained in their sections.

Dates, accounting checks and input reconciliation
CheckStatusWhat it checks
Price observationsReview neededPrices must be positive, finite, in date order and have no duplicate weeks.
Historical price basisPassedNo material split or distribution discontinuity was found between the two price histories.
Price dateReview neededThe latest completed close must be no more than 14 days old.
Business modelPassedValue operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.
Earnings and share unitsPassedEarnings, profit and weighted shares are reconciled before per-share growth is used. No conflicting per-share comparisons were found.
Balance-sheet totalsPassedAssets must reconcile to liabilities and equity, allowing separately reported minority interests and 1% rounding tolerance. No conflicting complete balance sheets were found.
Consolidated depreciationPassedDepreciation from a cash-flow reconciliation is distinguished from expense components. Conflicting amounts are excluded until the statement establishes their scope. No unresolved component-versus-total conflict was found.
Statement currencyPassedValuation cash flows and the share price must use the same currency; amounts are not silently converted.
Publication datesPassedFuture financial periods and future filing dates cannot enter the assessment.
Known reporting datesPassed0 of the latest four quarters have no stored publication date. These cannot support a point-in-time claim.
Cash-flow identitiesPassedOperating cash plus negative capital spending must equal cash after capital spending. All comparable stored periods reconcile within 1%.
Operating-profit basisPassed4 of the latest four quarters have an explicit reported operating-income basis. EBIT may include non-operating items; it is not automatically treated as operating income.
Filed and stored totalsPassed0 trailing input totals differ from the stored snapshot. The matched filed totals are used in this report; original figures remain in the reconciliation table.
Ownership source reconciliationPassedNo unresolved ownership source conflicts were found.
Financial periodPassedThe valuation needs a financial period no more than 150 days old.
Corporate-action basisPassedA split after the financial period needs a reviewed reconciliation of shares, earnings per share and the quoted price.
Share countPassedPer-share enterprise and book values require a positive current share count.
Ownership and debt amountsPassedDebt, cash, preferred stock and minority interests cannot be negative.
Sources and dates

Financial statements, completed weekly prices, analyst estimates and SEC filings where available. Forecast collection dates and fiscal periods are shown beside the figures.

Financial history may include restatements. This report describes current evidence; it is not a historical backtest. Estimates and model values can change.

Important information

SM Virtual Analyst is an automated research report for general information. Its model ratings and price targets are not personal investment advice, an offer to trade, or a guarantee of value or return. The report does not consider your financial circumstances, objectives, tax position or capacity for loss.

Reported figures can be delayed, incomplete, corrected or restated. Source checks confirm specific reported amounts and accounting relationships; they do not audit a company, establish recurring earnings or prove that a forecast is accurate. Missing information is not assumed to be zero unless a particular illustration expressly says so.

Valuations depend on the stated business model, assumptions and available data. Scenario ranges are illustrations, not probabilities, confidence intervals or limits on loss. Ratings use the disclosed review policy; they are not an independently validated prediction of future returns. Past performance and historical comparisons do not predict future results. An investment can lose its entire value.

Prices, financial periods, publication dates, model versions and review dates are shown in the report. The dated published assessment is separate from editable valuation illustrations. Unless expressly stated otherwise, price comparisons exclude dividends, fees and taxes. Check the latest company filings and subsequent events before making a decision, and seek qualified advice when needed.

Price & value

How the valuation works

For operating companies, the model estimates five years of after-tax operating profit, deducts the investment needed for growth and discounts the resulting cash. It adds a value for later years, deducts net debt and other ownership claims, then divides by the current share count.

For banks and insurers, it uses common equity and the earnings above the assumed cost of equity. Retained earnings fund growth; negative growth does not automatically release capital.

The discount rate expresses the annual return required for the risk. Higher rates reduce present value. Growth and margins move independently in the grid, so some combinations may be unrealistic. Check capital requirements and company guidance.

The starting scenario is an illustration based on recent results. A share price can be consistent with many combinations of assumptions. Values below zero are shown as zero equity value.

What changed

How to read the estimates

Each line follows the estimate for one financial year or quarter. Changing the selected period changes the earnings being forecast.

The analyst range shows the lowest and highest available estimates. It is not a probability interval. The analyst count shows coverage, not certainty.

Recent historical estimates supplied with a new collection are labelled separately from observations we recorded ourselves. Neither is treated as management guidance. Percentage revisions are left blank when the earlier estimate was zero or negative.

Forecasts more than seven days old are marked for review. A rising estimate does not guarantee that the share price will rise.

Evidence context