NYSE ยท Consumer Cyclical ยท US stocks

LOW Investment Case

Lowe's Companies Inc

52-week price-27.6%
LOW 52-week priceWeekly closing prices from 2025-09-12 to 2026-09-11. Price change -27.6%, before dividends. Split-adjusted history.
2025-09-12Weekly close ยท USD2026-09-11
Weekly close$196.822026-09-11
Quarterly results through2026-07-31Annual year-end 2026-01-31
Next resultsNot announcedCheck the company calendar
SM Virtual Analyst ยท Published assessment
Model ratingHold + Add
Target ยท 2027-09-11$278.18

41.3% vs the weekly close ยท Price only, before dividends

The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.

Automated model assessment. Assumptions and risks are shown below.

Investment view

The assessment, supporting evidence and main risks.

Valuation basis

The central value is above the share price. A sufficiently complete, positive earnings record allows the stock's own P/E history to be used.

Valuation method
Earnings and historical valuation
Valuation uncertainty
Standard Evidence โ†“
Assessment date
2026-09-16 Review record โ†“

Lower valuation, stronger profitability.

Quarterly sales are growing, but year-to-date profit is lower.

Company observations use the financial and market dates shown in the evidence. They may be newer than the published assessment.

Review conditions
The business

Year-to-date profit is lower

Across 2 completed quarters since 2026-01-31, net income was 4,027.0m versus 4,039.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.

Source figures : Year-to-date profit is lower
All company findings
Peer comparison
Lower valuation, stronger profitability

Enterprise value / EBITDA is 11.7ร— for LOW, versus a peer median of 12.0ร—. Its operating margin is 11.4% versus 4.9%. Business mix and growth expectations can explain the difference.

Check the supporting chart
Peer comparison
Borrowing is higher relative to earnings

Net debt / EBITDA: 3.0ร— for LOW, against 2.8ร— across 4 comparable peers.

Check the supporting chart
Share price
Compare the stock with its market

Over one year, the stock changed -27.6% against +16.3% for US stocks (SPY). The gap is -43.9 percentage points. These are price returns, before dividends.

Check the supporting chart
Financial year so far
Year-to-date profit is lower

Across 2 completed quarters since 2026-01-31, net income was 4,027.0m versus 4,039.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.

Check the supporting chart
Sales
Quarterly sales are growing

Revenue changed +8.3% from the same quarter last year, through 2026-07-31. The previous quarterโ€™s year-on-year change was +10.3%.

Check the supporting chart
Cash quality
Operating cash covers reported profit

Over the latest four quarters, operating cash was 1.39 times net income. Review receivables, inventory and non-cash charges before judging the gap.

Check the supporting chart
Price and earnings
Earnings have outpaced price

Over 1 year (2025-09-12 to 2026-09-11), price changed -27.6% and trailing EPS changed +3.3%. A wider gap changes the earnings multiple; it does not establish fair value.

Check the supporting chart
Capital allocation
Cash after capital spending covers payouts

Dividends and buybacks totalled 3,156.0m versus 7,000.0m of cash after capital spending over four quarters. Existing cash or borrowing can fund a difference.

Check the supporting chart
Expectations
Earnings forecasts have fallen

The estimate for the period ending 2027-01-31 changed -1.3% over 30 days. Coverage is 32 analysts.

Check the supporting chart
Margins
The profit margin narrowed

The latest quarterly operating margin was 13.7%, -0.8 percentage points from a year earlier. Compare the sales and margin contributions below.

Check the supporting chart
Results versus estimates
Recent results beat most estimates

Of the latest 4 comparable quarters, 4 beat the estimate and 0 missed it. Check how price responded; a beat alone is not a reason to buy.

Check the supporting chart
Shares outstanding
The share count fell

Weighted diluted shares changed -1.4%. Compare this with buyback spending; splits and acquisitions can also change the count.

Check the supporting chart

Valuation comments use the starting assumptions. Related findings can reflect the same underlying change; they are not separate votes or a probability of success.

SM Virtual Analyst is an automated review of stored company results and market data. The views below describe the available evidence and identify what to check next.

Business and operations

Revenue, profit, cash generation and the operating measures behind them.

Business assumptions

Follow the operating evidence, compare results with recorded forecasts, and check what funds growth.

Forecast progress โ†“
Assumptions behind the price
The published assessment changes through a formal review. The tests below show how different conditions could affect the business.
Reported results
Separate prices, volumes, costs and investment. A market price relationship alone does not establish a change in company value.
Next results ยท Date not announced
Compare what the company reports with the assumptions recorded beforehand. A temporary benefit needs an end date.
Retail ยท Business drivers

Business drivers

Start with the measures that affect sales, profit and cash. Each chart shows whether the evidence comes from company disclosures or financial statements.

0 of 3 key company measures recorded
Financial measure

Sales growth

8.34%2026-07-31

Compare matching quarters to reduce seasonal effects.

Quarterly statements
Financial measure

Operating margin

13.67%2026-07-31

The part of sales left after operating costs. It does not identify the underlying cause of a change.

Quarterly statements
Financial measure

Cash left from sales

12.01%2026-07-31

Cash after capital spending as a share of revenue. Working capital and seasonal investment can affect one quarter.

Quarterly statements
Company-specific coverage

Not recorded in reviewed disclosures: Comparable-store sales, Units sold, Gross margin. The financial measures above provide context; they do not substitute for these operating measures or establish their cause.

Understand the business

Profit and cash generation

Sales, profitability and cash after investment, compared with the financial history.

Financial results through
2026-07-31
Business description

Lowe's Companies, Inc. is an American retail company specializing in home improvement. Headquartered in Mooresville, North Carolina, the company operates a chain of retail stores in the United States and Canada.

Sales over twelve months$90.43bnTotal sales over twelve months
Operating profit$10.29bn11.38% of sales ยท same twelve months
Net income$6.64bn7.35% of sales ยท same twelve months
Cash after capital spending$7.00bn7.74% of sales ยท same twelve months

Profit and cash flow

The same twelve-month reporting period. Cash after capital spending is before dividends, buybacks and debt repayments.

Operating margin history

Latest reported margin 11.4% ยท Annual-history median 12.5%

Compare annual results with the latest trailing period. The periods may overlap. The median describes the available history; it is not an assumed future margin.

Follow the result back to the accounts.Quarterly and annual financial evidence โ†“

Financial results

The latest reporting periods, earnings quality and the longer financial record.

The business

Company results and cash generation

Start with the latest quarters, then check whether the longer record supports the same view.

Annual results ยท 2026-01-31
Quarterly results

The current financial year

Compare completed quarters with the same periods a year earlier. Annual year-end: 2026-01-31.

Latest quarter ยท 2026-07-31
Reported 2026-08-27
Revenue9.2%2 matched quarters vs last year
Operating profit2.3%2 matched quarters vs last year
Net income-0.3%2 matched quarters vs last year
Operating cash-7.9%2 matched quarters vs last year
Cash after capital spending-9.9%2 matched quarters vs last year

Quarterly sales

Same-quarter comparison

Reported revenue in USD. Growth can include acquisitions, exchange-rate changes and price changes.

Quarterly profit

Operating profit shows the business before financing and tax. Net income can also reflect asset sales and other one-off items.

Operating profit changes

Latest quarter against the same quarter last year. The sales effect holds the old margin fixed; the remaining change comes from the margin. These two amounts add up to the change in operating profit.

Quarterly profit and cash

Cash can move sharply between quarters. Check the four-quarter comparison and working-capital changes before drawing a conclusion.

Cash coverage of shareholder payments

Latest four consecutive quarters. Payouts above cash generation need another source of funding, such as existing cash or borrowing.

Working capital and sales

Same quarter one year earlier. Receivables and inventory are balances at the reporting date; sales cover the quarter. Faster growth can tie up cash, but acquisitions and payment timing can also explain a change.

Quarterly results and year-to-date figures
2 completed quarters since 2026-01-31

Year-to-date comparisons require every completed quarter since the annual year-end and a matching prior-year period. Missing periods are not treated as zero. Figures may include subsequent restatements.

Annual results commentary

Cash covered reported profit

Operating cash flow was 1.48 times net income. Working capital and non-cash charges can explain the difference.

See the figures โ†“

The share count fell

Weighted diluted shares changed -1.4%. Compare this with buyback spending; splits and acquisitions can also change the count.

See the figures โ†“
Longer view

Annual financial history

Sales and operating profit

Reported financial years. Amounts in USD.

Profit and cash margins

The proportion of sales left as operating profit and cash after capital spending.

Profit compared with cash

Cash after capital spending still has to cover debt repayments and other commitments.

Buybacks, dividends and acquisitions

Cash spent, shown as positive amounts. Compare buybacks with changes in the diluted share count.

Diluted share count

Weighted diluted shares from the annual statements. Share splits, acquisitions and employee awards can also change the total.

Working capital

Inventory and receivables as a percentage of annual sales. Increasing amounts can tie up cash; business seasonality also matters.

Revenue by geography

Financial year ending 2026-01-30. Reported categories may overlap; they are not assumed to add up to total revenue.

CategoryRevenue (USD)
US โ†—86225000000
CA โ†—61000000
Financial statements and sources
Financial yearRevenueOperating profitNet incomeOperating cashCash after capital spendingDiluted sharesPublished
2019-01-3171309000000.04018000000.02314000000.06193000000.05019000000.0812000000.02021-03-22
2020-01-3172148000000.06314000000.04281000000.04296000000.02812000000.0778000000.02022-03-21
2021-01-3189597000000.09647000000.05835000000.011049000000.09258000000.0750000000.02024-03-25
2022-01-3196250000000.012093000000.08442000000.010113000000.08260000000.0699000000.02025-03-24
2023-01-3197059000000.010159000000.06437000000.08589000000.06760000000.0631000000.02026-03-23
2024-01-3186377000000.011557000000.07726000000.08140000000.06176000000.0584000000.02026-03-23
2025-01-3183674000000.010466000000.06957000000.09625000000.07698000000.0568000000.02026-03-23
2026-01-3186286000000.010153000000.06654000000.09864000000.07651000000.0560000000.02026-03-23

Amounts use each statementโ€™s reported currency. Historical figures can include later restatements. Weighted diluted shares are an annual earnings measure, not the current share count used for valuation.

Earnings quality

Earnings quality

Separate the operating result, financing, tax and share count. Compare the same quarter a year apart.

2025-07-31 โ†’ 2026-07-31

Operating profit explains the largest part of the profit change

Its contribution was $80.00m. The bridge reconciles the two quarters; it does not by itself establish whether the change will repeat.

See the figures โ†“

Separate earnings growth from the share count

At the old share count, current profit would produce EPS of $4.28. The changed share count contributes $+0.00 per share. This does not attribute all changes in shares to buybacks.

See the figures โ†“

Check profit against cash received

The latest quarter reported $2.40bn net income and $3.66bn operating cash. The difference includes non-cash expenses and working capital; one quarter can be seasonal.

See the figures โ†“

Change in quarterly profit

USD. Components add up to the total change. Non-operating items can include interest, investment income and other gains or charges.

Profit growth versus the share count

Reported diluted EPS is checked against profit divided by weighted diluted shares. Split periods are excluded. The share-count effect is measured after the profit change.

Cash conversion

USD. Cash timing can differ from profit recognition. Use several quarters to check whether a difference persists.

Recurring earnings and accounting checks

No reviewed schedule of unusual profit items is recorded. Reported profit is not assumed to be recurring profit.

Growth from pricing, volume, acquisitions and currency is identified only when the company provides a matching breakdown. A financial bridge explains the arithmetic, not the business cause. Gains are positive and charges negative in the unusual-item schedule.

Growth and capital

Investment and cash requirements

Compare the cash generated by the business with investment, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks.

Cash generated and cash used

Cash after capital spending

Cash after capital spending is before acquisitions, dividends and buybacks. A full remaining-cash figure is shown only when all those amounts are matched; missing payments are never zero. A shortfall may be met by cash balances, borrowing or asset sales. These figures do not establish the funding source or the return on new investment.

Investment returns and funding

These cash measures show funding needs. They do not calculate the return on new investment. That requires comparable invested capital, after-tax operating profit and a supported required return. Acquisitions, disposals and accounting changes need separate treatment. Check the return-on-capital comparison in Peers & sector where those inputs are available.

Results, guidance and assumptions

Results and expectations

A target is useful only when you can see the business assumptions behind it.

SM assumption

Annual sales growth

Result at review9.3%
Assumed9.3%

Recent median quarterly year-on-year growth; model starting growth. Published model assumptions; target date 2027-09-11.

SM assumption

Net profit margin

Result at review7.3%
Assumed7.8%

Trailing result; margin at the target date. Published model assumptions; target date 2027-09-11.

How these comparisons are matched

Company guidance and consensus are compared only when the fiscal period, measure, currency and earnings basis match. Target assumptions below use their own stated horizon; they are not relabelled as fiscal-year consensus.

No verified, like-for-like management and consensus comparison is available yet. It is omitted rather than combining different periods or earnings definitions.

Share price and peers

Performance, earnings and valuation compared with the market and other companies.

Understand the share price

Share-price performance

Separate the companyโ€™s move from the wider market. Then examine the change in earnings and the price paid for them.

LOW against its market

Both series start at 100 on the same date. Completed weekly prices; dividends are excluded. A sector fund represents its own holdings and weighting, which differ from the equally weighted sector statistics above.

Earnings and valuation contributions

At the old earnings multiple, the latest trailing EPS would imply $280.84. The actual close was $196.82.

2025-09-12 to 2026-09-11. The earnings contribution holds the starting P/E fixed; the remaining change comes from the P/E. This is an accounting comparison, not a fair-value estimate or proof of why investors traded.

The last 52 weeks

Current price range

Lowest weekly closeUSD 196.82LatestUSD 196.82Highest weekly closeUSD 287.39

-31.5% from the highest weekly close; 0.0% above the lowest.

Position in the range is useful context. It does not establish whether the business is cheap or expensive.

Test what the business could be worth โ†“
Earnings and price

Earnings and share price

Compare reported earnings, the marketโ€™s response and changes in expectations.

Price and trailing earnings

Both start at 100 on the same date

Weekly prices are matched only after a recorded results date. A reporting-week move includes other news. EPS from earnings releases may differ from statutory diluted EPS. Historical revisions can change this comparison; it is not a trading backtest.

Reported earnings and estimates

4 beats and 0 misses across the last 4 comparable quarters. Earnings-release figures may use an adjusted basis and differ from the financial statements.

How price moved after results

From the weekly close before the announcement to the first weekly close after it, and to approximately four weeks later. These are weekly-window returns, not a one-day reaction. Other news also affects price.

Price paid for earnings

P/E is available for 157 of 157 weekly observations. There are no missing earnings observations in this displayed period. Select Trailing EPS to inspect the earnings behind the ratio.

P/E at 2026-09-11: 15.8ร— ยท Median across positive-earnings weeks: 19.0ร—. Loss-making weeks are excluded from this median.

Uses earnings-release EPS, which can differ from the statement EPS used in peer factors. A low multiple can reflect weaker expected earnings.

Earnings forecasts

Forecast observations

Compare the pace over different periods

Price return excludes dividends. Earnings growth and multiple changes require positive EPS at both ends of the comparison.

Share-price history

Weekly closing prices

View price values
Earnings announcements and price comparisons

Weekly prices are matched only after a recorded results date. A reporting-week move includes other news. EPS from earnings releases may differ from statutory diluted EPS. Historical revisions can change this comparison; it is not a trading backtest.

Peers and sector

Peer and sector comparison

Compare the price of the business with what it earns. Then check whether the wider sector is helping.

Same published week
2026-09-11

Lower valuation, stronger profitability

Enterprise value / EBITDA is 11.7ร— for LOW, versus a peer median of 12.0ร—. Its operating margin is 11.4% versus 4.9%. Business mix and growth expectations can explain the difference.

Profitability and valuation, together

LOW is the larger teal dot. Each other dot is a named peer. Move right for greater profitability; move up for a higher valuation multiple.

Compare the actual figures

LOW is shown in teal. The comparison uses 4 selected peers out of 4 other covered listings in Home Improvement Retail.

Peer comparison table and financial dates

Active US common listings in the same industry; up to 12 peers nearest in market value. Identified preferred shares, warrants, rights and units are excluded. Matching company names and labelled share classes count once, using the listing with the largest stored market value; the target's other identified classes are excluded. This metadata screen is not a complete issuer-identity check. Medians require at least three companies per measure. All use the same published week and factor universe. Financial periods can differ and are shown below. This is a comparison of current constituents, not a backtest.

The wider Consumer Cyclical sector

Sector performance

These figures cover other active US listings in the same sector and publication week. Sector membership is broader than the selected industry peers.

40%Higher over one year404 listings with adjusted-price changes
69%Reported a profit395 listings with net income
-9.2%Median adjusted-price changeEach listing has equal weight

Company versus sector

Percentage measures from the same published week. Profitability, growth and price performance describe different things; they are not added together.

Sector comparison

Operating marginLOW 11.4% ยท Sector median 6.2%394 other listings with this measure

Adjusted-price change over one yearLOW -26.6% ยท Sector median -9.2%404 other listings with this measure

What the peer measures mean
Price / earnings
The share price divided by trailing statement earnings per share. Lower can mean cheaper earnings, weaker growth or greater risk. Loss-making companies have no meaningful P/E.
Enterprise value / EBITDA
Enterprise value includes equity and net debt. EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. This multiple does not account for the capital spending needed to keep the business running.
Operating margin
The percentage of revenue left as operating profit, before interest and tax. Product mix and accounting policies affect comparisons.
Cash after capital spending / enterprise value
Cash after capital spending divided by enterprise value. Check whether cash flow is repeatable and how much must cover debt and other commitments.
Cash after capital spending / profit
Cash after capital spending divided by net income over the same trailing period. A value of 1 means one dollar of cash remains for each dollar of profit. Growth investment and working capital can change this ratio.
Net debt / EBITDA
Debt less cash divided by trailing EBITDA. A negative value means cash exceeds debt. Debt maturities and interest costs still need separate checks.
Adjusted-price change over one year
Change across the stored one-year adjusted-price window. These factor histories include dividend adjustments; they are separate from the quoted-price comparisons. Current constituents are used.

Comparisons use stored statement-based factors. Earnings-release EPS can use a different basis from these financial statements. Missing measures and unprofitable earnings multiples are omitted. Financial periods differ across issuers; matching publication weeks does not make their businesses identical.

Consider the alternatives

Alternative companies

Compare the trade-offs across closely sized businesses in the same industry. This list is not an investment ranking.

Same price week. Financial periods no more than 110 days apart.

LOW and HD

HD compares more favourably on operating margin, net debt / ebitda.

The trade-off is less favourable ev / ebitda.

HD financial period 2026-07-31. Published prices 2026-09-11. Differences in product mix, geography and accounting can limit comparability.

Read HD's case โ†—
Available comparisons; lower multiples alone do not establish value
MeasureLOWHD
EV / EBITDA11.70ร—14.55ร—
Operating margin11.38%12.43%
Net debt / EBITDA3.05ร—2.39ร—

Valuation and target

The published target, its assumptions and alternative valuation methods.

Target & rating

Published target and rating

Lower valuation, stronger profitability. Quarterly sales are growing, but year-to-date profit is lower.

Method and rating rules โ†“
Valuation methodEarnings and historical valuation

A sufficiently complete, positive earnings record allows the stock's own P/E history to be used.

Valuation range

By 2027-09-11

The weaker case combines slower sales, lower margins and a lower P/E. The range uses business-specific sensitivity assumptions. Severe stress is shown separately. These are not probabilities or limits on possible losses.

Earnings

$12.47 โ†’ $14.68

Trailing release EPS to the central estimate. Assumes the share count and the relationship between release earnings and statement profit stay unchanged.

See the evidence โ†“
Valuation

15.8ร— โ†’ 19.0ร—

Current P/E compared with the median of the usable weekly record. The unchanged-P/E comparison separates earnings growth from a change in valuation. History alone does not establish a justified future multiple.

See the evidence โ†“
Cash and debt

Moderate borrowing

The business-specific cash and borrowing assessment is shown with the rating evidence.

See the evidence โ†“
Weaker$213.878.7% vs price

4.3% annual sales growth ยท 7.0% net margin ยท 17.1ร— earnings

Central$278.1841.3% vs price

9.3% annual sales growth ยท 7.8% net margin ยท 19.0ร— earnings

Stronger$353.8079.8% vs price

14.3% annual sales growth ยท 8.6% net margin ยท 20.8ร— earnings

Target calculation: earnings per share

Target price components

First change earnings at today's P/E, then change the P/E. The contributions add up to the difference between the latest close and the target.

Historical and assumed profit margins

Net income divided by revenue. The central assumption moves halfway from the latest margin towards the median of 5 annual results, including loss years.

Inputs for each scenario
ScenarioSales growth / yearNet marginEstimated EPSP/EPrice
Weaker4.3%7.0%$12.5417.1ร—$213.87
Central9.3%7.8%$14.6819.0ร—$278.18
Stronger14.3%8.6%$16.9720.8ร—$353.80
Method, rating rules and data checks

Methods are considered by business suitability and completeness of evidence. The model does not select whichever produces the highest target.

Valuation methods checked
MethodInput checksOutstanding requirements
Earnings and historical valuation ยท SelectedPassedRequired inputs are available. Publication safeguards apply separately.
Cash flow across the cycleIncompleteRecorded cash-flow, investment, debt, cash, preferred stock, minority interests and share-count inputs are required; missing amounts are not assumed to be zero. Missing: minority interest.

Earnings and historical valuation

The model estimates earnings for the 12-month period ending on the target date, then applies a P/E from this stock's own weekly history. It uses the same earnings-release EPS basis for both. Other valuation methods below remain separate comparisons.

Sales growth starts at the median of the latest four quarterly year-on-year changes, limited to โˆ’20% to +30%. The central net margin moves halfway towards the median of up to five annual results. Projected statement profit changes are applied proportionally to trailing release EPS, assuming a constant share count and earnings basis. Reporting lag is included in the projection period.

The central multiple is the median usable historical P/E. Ordinary weaker and stronger cases vary growth, margin and P/E around the central assumptions using observed dispersion and the stated business-specific minimum bands. The combined sales contraction and multiple shock is a separate severe stress. These are explicit SM assumptions, not analyst consensus.

Historical profits may contain unusual items. Neither a historical median nor the reconciliation thresholds establish recurring earnings. Changes in the business, dilution, acquisitions or accounting treatment can invalidate the assumptions.

Rating criteria

Buy requires the disclosed return hurdle, at least equal upside to the weaker-case decline, sound cash and borrowing, and evidence of profitable growth, cash value or operating recovery. Hold + Add requires at least three quarters of the Buy hurdle (minimum 10%), upside of at least three quarters of the weaker-case decline, positive cash and acceptable borrowing, without declining growth evidence. Hold + Reduce means at least 10% central price downside without meeting Sell. Sell requires at least 25% downside, or at least 15% with declining growth or both losses and negative cash after investment; central downside must also cover any upside in the stronger ordinary scenario. Hold covers the remaining rated cases. The qualified Hold ratings express direction and do not specify a position size. Moderate borrowing up to 1.0 times above the business limit can support Hold + Add only with interest cover of at least 6 times and cash after investment of at least 10% of net debt. High valuation uncertainty adds five percentage points to the Buy hurdle. Severe stress is separate. Returns are price only; unverified dividends are not added.

Publication safeguards. Model estimates below one quarter or above four times the current price require a separate valuation review. Cash-flow estimates also require review when more than 90% of their absolute present value comes from after year five. These are SM review thresholds; they do not cap the calculated value or move it towards the market price.

This is an automated research assessment. The policy has not yet been validated against subsequent stock returns. It does not account for your portfolio, tax position or investment needs.

New data refreshes the evidence. A formal review determines whether the published assessment changes. Editing the valuation controls below changes your scenario only. Saving your case preserves this dated assessment alongside your assumptions.

Data checks ยท reviewed 2026-09-16
CheckStatusEvidence
Recent pricePassedWeekly close dated 2026-09-11.
Suitable business modelPassedValue operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.
Four quartersPassedFour quarters ending 2026-07-31. Open evidence โ†“
Current financialsPassedStatements through 2026-07-31; factor prices dated 2026-09-11.
Annual recordPassed5 consecutive annual profit margins, including loss years. Open evidence โ†“
Comparable earnings historyPassedP/E is usable in 157 of 157 weeks. At least 52 usable weeks and 70% coverage are required; excluding too many loss or missing weeks would bias the target. Open evidence โ†“
Earnings and price datesPassedEarnings-release EPS $12.47, for four quarters ending 2026-07-31.
Price riskPassedRisk uses the latest 52 weekly price changes.
Comparable sales growthPassedGrowth uses the median of four quarterly year-on-year comparisons.
Positive statement earningsPassedTrailing statement profit is positive.
Earnings reconciliationPassedRelease EPS is $12.47; statement-derived EPS is $11.85. The difference is within the 5% review threshold; this does not prove there are no unusual items. Open evidence โ†“
Statement totalsPassedThe latest four quarters agree with the trailing snapshot within 5%.
Cash and borrowingPassedCash generation, debt and interest-cover figures are available. Open evidence โ†“
Target publication reviewPassedThe model estimate is within SM's automatic publication range of one quarter to four times the current price. This is a review threshold, not evidence that the market price is correct.

Financial period: 2026-07-31. P/E history: 2023-09-15 to 2026-09-11; 157 usable weeks out of 157. Model version: sm-assessment-14-operating-capital. Published price: $196.82 on 2026-09-11. The upside above uses the latest close. Review policy and original record โ†“

Price and valuation assumptions

The central value is above the share price. Hold + Add ยท Earnings and historical valuation

41.3%price return to our target2026-09-11 close โ†’ 2027-09-11 target

Classification sensitivity. The classification is unchanged across the completed assumption tests. View the comparisons โ†“

Price requirements

Assumptions required by the price

Weekly close $196.82. The figures below make the model's value at 2027-09-11 equal this price.

One assumption changes in each row
AssumptionOur modelTo match price
Multiple on model EPSHolds projected annual EPS at $14.68.18.95ร—13.41ร—
Annual EPS at model multipleHolds the earnings multiple at 18.95ร—.14.68 USD10.38 USD

These are alternative ways for the target-date value to equal the latest weekly close, before dividends. They imply zero price appreciation to that date, not an investor's required total return. Each changes one assumption while holding the others fixed. Many combinations could fit the price; this does not establish market consensus or the likelihood of an outcome.

Valuation assumptions

Our valuation assumptions

Target $278.18 for 2027-09-11. Assessment 2026-09-16; financial period through 2026-07-31.

Recorded evidence and the selected model
MeasureEvidenceAssumption
Sales growth9.30%9.30%
Net profit margin7.35%7.83%
Earnings multiple18.95ร— historical reference18.95ร—

These inputs use the reporting period, profit adjustments and share basis recorded at assessment. Historical averages do not establish sustainable growth or margins.

Assumption definitions

Sales growth. Median of 4 recorded year-on-year comparisons. Assumed annual growth through the target date, including the reporting lag.

Net profit margin. Historical reference: 8.31%. Margin assumed at the target date.

Earnings multiple. Applied to projected annual EPS of $14.68. This is a model forecast.

Target calculation and rating evidence โ†“
Evidence and uncertainty

Evidence behind the difference

Company evidence recorded with the assessment on 2026-09-16. The detailed financial tables may contain newer results.

Company strengths

Quarterly sales are growing. Revenue changed +8.3% from the same quarter last year, through 2026-07-31. The previous quarterโ€™s year-on-year change was +10.3%.

Company risks

Year-to-date profit is lower. Across 2 completed quarters since 2026-01-31, net income was 4,027.0m versus 4,039.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.

Strength in the business and an attractive share price are separate judgments. These findings do not independently verify the target.

Assumptions with the largest effect on value

The two assumptions with the largest effect in the sensitivity tests, measured relative to our target. The table shows both ends of each range. Other assumptions stay fixed; these are conditional values, not forecasts or probabilities.

MeasureChanged assumptionTarget-date value
Net marginProfit margin: 7.05%Use the ordinary scenario margin assumptions with other central assumptions fixed.$250.36
Net marginProfit margin: 8.61%Use the ordinary scenario margin assumptions with other central assumptions fixed.$306.00
Historical earnings multipleEarnings multiple: 17.06ร—Use the ordinary scenario multiples without changing the earnings forecast.$250.36
Historical earnings multipleEarnings multiple: 20.85ร—Use the ordinary scenario multiples without changing the earnings forecast.$306.00
Target calculation and assumptions โ†‘
Review conditions

Conditions for a review

Rating basis recorded 2026-09-16. The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.

Thresholds saved at publication ยท crossing a threshold requires review
MeasureAt publicationLatestImprovement thresholdDeterioration thresholdStatus
Quarterly sales growth8.34%8.34%โ‰ฅ 13.34%โ‰ค 3.34%Within starting range
Quarterly operating margin13.67%13.67%โ‰ฅ 15.67%โ‰ค 11.67%Within starting range
Operating cash / profit1.39ร—1.39ร—โ‰ฅ 1.59ร—โ‰ค 1.19ร—Within starting range
Net debt / EBITDA3.05ร—3.05ร—โ‰ค 2.55ร—โ‰ฅ 3.55ร—Within starting range
Company review priorities
  • Annual acquisition payments are at least 5% of sales. Separate acquired growth from organic growth and check the cost of repeating that expansion. Five per cent is a review convention, not an accounting classification.
  • The latest quarterly margin changed -0.8 percentage points from a year earlier. Check sales volumes, pricing and unusual gains in the next filing.
  • Recheck the valuation gap alongside profitability and growth after new results. A discount alone does not establish value.
  • Compare the stock and the market fund over the same dates. Look for a change in relative performance as results arrive.

These observations use the stated periods and reporting bases. Reported margins and the valuation's adjusted margin history can differ; reconcile the basis before comparing a new result with the model.

New results, restatements, material disclosures and unresolved share changes require review. A sustained price change can change the rating comparison without changing the target. Company evidence, risk and uncertainty must still support the classification. Dividends are assessed separately where verified.

Classification and financial evidence

Growth, cash generation, borrowing and uncertainty behind the rating.

Business modelOperating company

Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.

Growth evidenceSupported

Annual earnings growth -5.2% per diluted share over two years. Cash after investment changed 13.7% per diluted share per year.

Valuation uncertaintyStandard

The scenario range and valuation dependence are within the standard review bands. This does not measure the probability of reaching the target.

Investment basis

Profitable growth

The published recommendation is Hold + Add. The checks below compare its recorded company assumptions with the latest weekly close. A formal review is required before the recommendation changes.

Using the model's projected EPS and today's P/E gives $231.65, compared with the $278.18 target. The difference requires a change in the earnings multiple. Projected EPS changes 17.7% between the financial-period end and the target date.

Classification at this price

The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.

Valuation uncertainty is standard. The scenario balance does not measure the probability of reaching either value. A Sell can reflect a high price for a sound company; Hold can reflect insufficient support for a positive view despite a higher target.

Rating evidence at the latest close
ClassificationCurrent comparisonMeaning and requirements
BuyDoes not applyPositive value with sufficient business and financial support.
At least 15.0% central upside, covering the 0.0% weaker-case decline; cash, borrowing and a supported business route must pass.
Hold + AddAppliesQualified positive value; full Buy requirements are not met.
At least 11.2% upside and three quarters of the weaker-case decline, positive cash, acceptable borrowing and no declining growth evidence.
HoldDoes not applyNo directional classification meets its requirements.
This can reflect a price near the target, an insufficient return margin or financial evidence that does not support a positive view. It is not a substitute for missing valuation data.
Hold + ReduceDoes not applyQualified negative value; full Sell requirements are not met.
At least 10% central downside, without both the 25% Sell threshold and its stronger-case balance.
SellDoes not applySubstantial negative value, with the stronger scenario checked.
At least 25% central downside and at least as much downside as the 79.8% stronger-case upside. Declining evidence: not established.
Business and financial checks for a positive classification
Positive-rating evidence at the latest close
AssessmentBuy requirementEvidence
Price and returnMet41.3% price upside against a 15.0% Buy requirement.
Downside balanceMetThe weaker operating case is 0.0% below the price. Severe stress is shown separately.
Cash generationMetPositive cash after capital spending and at least 80% cash conversion of positive reported profit are required.
BorrowingNot metModerate borrowing. The operating company policy uses net debt / EBITDA up to 3.0 and interest cover of at least 4.0, unless cash covers debt.
Business evidenceMetProfitable growth. Growth evidence: supported.
Earnings supportMetThe earnings-growth or cash-value requirement is met. Any assumed P/E change remains explicit in the target bridge.

Price return relative to the requirement: 2.76ร—. A value of 1 meets the return hurdle; it does not establish a Buy on its own. The comparison excludes dividends, fees and taxes. Hold + Add means a measured positive research view with less support than Buy. Hold + Reduce means a qualified negative view where the full Sell requirements are not met. These labels do not specify a holding size or assume you already own the stock.

Earnings and cash relative to price

EPS divided by price is earnings yield: $5 of earnings at a $100 price is 5%. Earnings are not a promised distribution. Cash after capital spending is before debt principal repayments. Neither yield is added to earnings growth to calculate a return.

Measurement basis

MeasureYieldPeriod
Reported earnings yieldReported annual earnings / listed share price6.3%2026-07-31
Cash after capital spending / priceOperating cash less capital spending; before debt principal payments and distributions6.7%2026-07-31
Model earnings yield at today's priceModel EPS at target date; not consensus or reviewed recurring earnings7.5%2027-09-11
Historical earnings yieldInverse of the median usable historical P/E; not a required investment return5.3%2026-09-11

A recurring-earnings yield needs a reviewed adjustment schedule. Consensus is included only with verified currency, annual period, earnings definition and listed-share basis. Unknown inputs remain excluded.

Capital and growth

Profit relative to the capital employed

A comparable after-tax operating return on current capital is unavailable. Returns on new investment and organic growth are not inferred from revenue growth.

Growth, borrowing and scenario assumptions

Sales growth uses comparable reported periods. Earnings and cash growth use two years per diluted share, where complete; a comparison spanning a split is excluded until a common basis is verified. Periods with conflicting earnings and share units are excluded from both per-share comparisons. These observations do not establish organic growth or returns on new investment. Projected EPS change covers the financial-period end to the target date.

Growth must be funded. The cash-flow model charges for investment and working capital; an earnings target holds shares constant and is checked against cash generation. Organic growth, acquisition effects and the return on new investment are not inferred from sales growth alone. Missing evidence does not receive a positive score.

Reported per-share history ยท source statement share basis
Year endDiluted EPSCash after capital spending / diluted share
2022-01-3112.0411.82
2023-01-3110.1710.71
2024-01-3113.2010.58
2025-01-3112.2313.55
2026-01-3111.8513.66

Cash coverage: 1.39ร— (reported net profit). Net debt / EBITDA: 3.05ร—. Interest cover: 6.47ร—. Cash covering debt outright also meets the borrowing requirement. Otherwise the business policy uses a leverage limit of 3.0ร— and interest cover of 4.0ร—. Borrowing up to 1.0ร— above the limit may support Hold + Add only when interest cover is at least 6ร— and annual cash after capital spending covers at least 10% of net debt.

The reported debt amount is retained. Lease obligations are not silently removed. Separately identified operating lease liabilities: $4,467,000,000. Filing source

The ordinary scenarios widen with observed growth and margin dispersion. The minimum sales-growth band is 5 percentage points for this business. The minimum margin band is 10% of the central margin. Earnings cases also use at least a 10% P/E band. Cash-flow cases use a half-point discount-rate band, keeping 2% continuing growth and spending-floor assumptions consistent. These are disclosed sensitivity assumptions, not statistical confidence intervals.

Growing businesses can qualify through persistent reported growth and improving per-share earnings or cash. Established businesses can qualify through cash value. A cash-flow recovery needs supportive operations without additional forecast borrowing. A growth Buy requires at least 5% annual model EPS growth. The target bridge shows the separate effect of any change in P/E.

Severe stress ยท separate from the ordinary valuation range

This combines a sales contraction, weaker profit margins and a reduction of at least 25% in today's P/E. The original severe downside assumptions remain available for assessing vulnerability.

Model value: $105.01 ยท -46.6% relative to the weekly close.

Sales growth -10.0% ยท margin 5.9% ยท P/E 11.8ร—. This scenario has no assigned probability and is not a limit on possible losses.

Price and income

Return including declared dividends

The target and classification use price returns. This separate comparison adds only reviewed regular cash dividends with an eligible ex-date and payment by the target date.

Dividend evidence incomplete. No dividend-inclusive figure is shown. Missing or ineligible payments are not treated as zero income, and a historical dividend yield is not used as a forecast.

Assumptions and value

Valuation sensitivity

Smaller changes in the tested assumptions. These tests use the assessment recorded on 2026-09-16.

Business assumptions โ†“

Each test changes only the stated assumptions. These are conditional values, not a confidence interval or the probability of reaching a target. A change above 25% of the central target is flagged for review. The central earnings and multiple assumptions are retained.

Classification under different assumptions

The classification is unchanged across the completed assumption tests.

Main valuation dependencies ยท conditional comparisons
AssumptionCentral valueRating
Net margin ยท lower input$250.36Hold + Add
Historical earnings multiple ยท lower input$250.36Hold + Add
Net margin ยท higher input$306.00Hold + Add

Each alternative includes its own weaker and stronger cases. These are conditional comparisons, not probabilities or new recommendations.

Effect of each assumption on value per share

The vertical marker is the central target of $278.18. Each range changes one input or the stated pair of capital ratios. All other assumptions stay fixed.

Net margin $250.36โ€“$306.00
Historical earnings multiple $250.36โ€“$306.00
Sales growth $264.04โ€“$292.40
Comparison of valuation methods
Separate estimates for 2027-09-11
MethodValue / share
Earnings and historical valuationSelected method$278.18
Cash flow across the cycleNot comparable

A second method has not passed all the requirements. Agreement between valuation methods has not been established.

Same target date, separate methods. Earnings history uses a historical P/E; operating cash flow models investment and financing. They share company data and are not independent appraisals. No average is used and no method is selected because it gives a higher value.

Method requirements

Earnings and historical valuation ยท Checks passed

Cash flow across the cycle ยท Not comparable

Recorded cash-flow, investment, debt, cash, preferred stock, minority interests and share-count inputs are required; missing amounts are not assumed to be zero. Missing: minority interest.

Review price: $196.82. These comparisons do not replace the published target or rating.

Assumption tests and values
Conditional values at the same target date ยท USD per share
TestAssumptionValueChange vs target
Sales growth ยท lower inputUse the ordinary scenario growth assumptions while holding the other central assumptions fixed.Sales growth: 4.30%$264.04-5.1%
Sales growth ยท higher inputUse the ordinary scenario growth assumptions while holding the other central assumptions fixed.Sales growth: 14.30%$292.405.1%
Net margin ยท lower inputUse the ordinary scenario margin assumptions with other central assumptions fixed.Profit margin: 7.05%$250.36-10.0%
Net margin ยท higher inputUse the ordinary scenario margin assumptions with other central assumptions fixed.Profit margin: 8.61%$306.0010.0%
Historical earnings multiple ยท lower inputUse the ordinary scenario multiples without changing the earnings forecast.Earnings multiple: 17.06ร—$250.36-10.0%
Historical earnings multiple ยท higher inputUse the ordinary scenario multiples without changing the earnings forecast.Earnings multiple: 20.85ร—$306.0010.0%
Latest margin persistsRetain the latest net margin instead of moving halfway to the historical reference.Profit margin: 7.35%$260.98-6.2%
Historical marginUse the full historical median margin. A non-positive margin cannot be valued by P/E.Profit margin: 8.31%$295.396.2%
Business economics

Evidence behind the assumptions

Recorded amounts, model assumptions and unresolved economic questions are shown separately. This inventory does not certify recurring earnings or a competitive advantage.

Priority checks for this company
  • Annual acquisition payments are at least 5% of sales. Separate acquired growth from organic growth and check the cost of repeating that expansion. Five per cent is a review convention, not an accounting classification.
Growth duration

4 of 4 measured sales comparisons are positive. The median is 9.3%.

Model treatment. Starting sales growth is 9.3%. It is applied through the target date, including the reporting lag.

Reported growth can include acquisitions, price changes and currency effects. It does not establish organic growth or the duration of a competitive advantage.

Profit margin

Latest margin 7.3%; historical reference 8.3%.

Model treatment. The central net margin is 7.8%.

Historical results retain losses and unusually strong years. A median does not establish recurring profit; acquisitions and changes in business mix can make earlier years less comparable.

Leases and ownership

The valuation retains the recorded debt and ownership-claim basis.

Model treatment. No lease liability is removed and no corresponding expense is added back by this review.

Any lease adjustment must change profit, assets and debt consistently. Acquired intangibles, minority interests and convertible securities can need company-specific treatment.

Future share count

Current ownership and earnings share bases are reconciled by the publication checks.

Model treatment. The forecast holds the share count constant. It does not assume future buybacks or issue proceeds.

Unvested awards and future capital raising can change value per share. A share-compensation expense and a separate dilution charge must not count the same cost twice.

Research, acquisitions and share compensation
Latest usable annual evidence through 2026-01-31
ItemAnnual amount ยท USD% of salesTreatment and limitations
Share compensation$247,000,0000.3%The operating-profit model does not add back share compensation separately. Reported operating cash can include an add-back. A fixed future share count is an assumption; awards and repurchases need separate review.
Acquisitions$10,088,000,00011.7%Acquisitions are shown separately from capital spending. Reported sales growth is not assumed organic. The central forecast does not establish funding for future acquisitions.
Research spendingNot establishedโ€”Reported research expense is retained in profit. It is not capitalised or added back without an explicit asset life and amortisation schedule.
Research excluding acquired projectsNot establishedโ€”This excludes acquired research. It is shown separately and is not substituted for total research spending.
Acquired research expenseNot establishedโ€”This is the reported expense for acquired research, not necessarily the cash paid in this period. It is not added back to profit.

An annual amount is not a trailing-quarter total. Missing amounts are not treated as zero, and no adjustment to reported profit is made by this table.

Check the valuation

Valuation differences

The effect of changing growth, margins and valuation assumptions.

Test your own assumptions โ†“
Test the price

Margin needed to support the price

Net margin at review7.3%
Published assumption7.8%
Required in this test5.5%

Change the margin alone until the model value at 2027-09-11 equals the latest close of $196.82. Financial period 2026-07-31. All other published assumptions remain fixed. This is a conditional test, not a claim about what the market expects.

Sensitivity to assumptions

USD per share at the published target date. Each test changes one assumption, holding the others fixed. Dots mark the published target; the dashed line marks the latest close. Ranges are not probabilities.

Sensitivity of the published target

P/E ยฑ20%

P/E ยฑ20% creates the largest change in this one-assumption test. 0 of 3 tests cross the latest share price. These ranges are sensitivity checks, not probabilities.

Lower result$222.54
Higher result$333.82

A large range means the conclusion depends heavily on the selected inputs. More methods agreeing does not prove those shared inputs are correct.

Inspect the target assumptions โ†“
Valuation methods and their basis

Peer price / earnings

Uses current positive statement earnings and peer P/E. Different earnings definitions or growth prospects can explain the gap.

$257.25

Current-value references using the starting inputs. The published target has a future date and its own assumptions. These references are not averaged into it. User edits in the valuation section remain separate.

Price and value

Valuation methods

Use different methods to test the price. Compare their assumptions and results before drawing a conclusion.

Compare all 1 methods โ†“

Each method answers a different question. There is no combined target price.

Compare the methods

Valuation comparison

Latest close ยท $196.82

MethodStarting valueBasis
Peer price / earnings$257.25Trailing statement EPS of $11.8475 ร— the selected P/E. The starting multiple is the median of 3 same-industry peers.

Dots mark the selected values; bars show the lower and higher illustrations. The dashed line marks the latest close. These ranges are not confidence intervals. Several methods use the same financial inputs and peers; agreement is not independent confirmation. All are shown per common share in USD.

Unavailable methods
Discounted cash flow
Revenue, operating profit, debt, cash and ownership claims are needed for this model.
Peer enterprise value / EBITDA
Comparable peer multiples, positive trailing figures and a complete enterprise-to-equity bridge are needed. This method is omitted for banks and REITs.
Peer enterprise value / sales
Comparable peer multiples, positive trailing figures and a complete enterprise-to-equity bridge are needed. This method is omitted for banks and REITs.
Steady operating profit
At least three reported operating margins and the enterprise-to-equity inputs are needed. This method is omitted for financial firms, property owners and extractive businesses.
Cash-yield reference
Positive cash after capital spending, a current share count and reported zero preferred/minority claims are required. Industrial cash measures are omitted for banks and REITs.
Peer price / common book
Positive equity, recorded preferred stock, a current share count and at least three peers with the same common-equity inputs are needed.

Risk and portfolio

Funding needs, adverse conditions and the effect of a holding on your portfolio.

Business risks

Business and financing risks

Review borrowing and company disclosures alongside interest rates and commodity markets.

Debt and cash

Balance-sheet figures from 2026-09-11. Cash may be needed to run the business.

If borrowing costs rise

Illustration: interest rates rise by 1 percentage point on the stated portion of debt. Existing fixed rates and hedges may delay or reduce the effect. This is not a debt-maturity schedule.

Observed market relationships

Each dot is one shared week. Bond and commodity funds are price proxies; their returns also reflect fund construction and expenses.

Relationship summary

Correlation ranges from โˆ’1 to +1. A relationship can change and may reflect broader market movements. It does not prove a customer, currency or commodity exposure.

Company disclosure ยท 2026-03-23

Currencies

Foreign currency translation adjustments โ€“ net of tax โ€” โ€” โ€” โ€” 5 0.01
Read in the filing โ†—
Company disclosure ยท 2026-03-23

Borrowing

We rely on cash flows from operations, as well as continued access to capital markets on both a short-term and long-term basis, as needed, to fund our operations, make strategic investments to support long-term growth, such as the acquisitions of FBM and ADG, return excess cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases, and repay debt maturities as they become due. Our access to capital markets depends on our strong credit ratings, the overall condition of such capital markets, our operating performance and reputation with potential lenders. If rating agencies lower or plaโ€ฆ
Read in the filing โ†—
Portfolio fit

Portfolio comparison

Compare your current mix with a proposed holding in LOW. Holdings entered here are used for this calculation and are not saved.

Current weights must total 100%. The purchase reduces all existing weights proportionally. Up to 15 US stocks; at least 52 shared weeks of prices are required.

Review and sources

Results against forecasts, your saved research, review decisions and data checks.

Published assessmentReviewed 2026-09-16

No material change requires a new assessment.

Next scheduled review2026-12-15Earlier if material company evidence changes
Last data check2026-09-16Review rules & record โ†“
Report guide

Understand the business. Review sales, profit and cash generation. Open the evidence link beneath each conclusion.

Test the assumptions. A valuation is a scenario. Change growth, margins and the discount rate to see how much the result depends on them.

Keep track. Save your own reasons and conditions. Revisit them after results. Figures show their observation dates. Data notes explain unavailable information.

Data notes ยท 3 to review
  • Financial totals have been checked against their reporting periods. Only matching twelve-month figures are used; unsupported measures remain blank.
  • Preferred stock or minority-interest amounts are missing. Enterprise-to-common-equity valuations are withheld until these claims are known.
  • Revenue, operating profit, debt, cash and ownership claims are needed for this model.
Forecasts and results

Forecasts and reported results

Follow the forecasts behind the current assessment. Earlier versions remain in the full record. Price movements alone do not settle the business case.

Full forecast record โ†“
Forecasts behind the current assessment ยท USD
Measure / periodForecastReportedDifferenceStatus / recorded
Sales2027-07-31$98,841,205,264Awaiting full-year resultโ€”Waiting for resultsRecorded 2026-09-16 ยท Live ยท Reporting period had begun
Net income2027-07-31$7,739,395,713Awaiting full-year resultโ€”Waiting for resultsRecorded 2026-09-16 ยท Live ยท Reporting period had begun
Sales2028-07-31$108,032,376,349Awaiting full-year resultโ€”Waiting for resultsRecorded 2026-09-16 ยท Live
Net income2028-07-31$8,459,076,437Awaiting full-year resultโ€”Waiting for resultsRecorded 2026-09-16 ยท Live

Forecasts are frozen when recorded. Actuals use the matching full financial year or four reported quarters, on the forecast's stated profit basis. Dated results are retained; restatements are recorded separately. Forecasts made after the period began are identified. Revisions, overlapping periods and preview records are not independent evidence of forecasting skill.

Next results

Next results and saved research

Set measurable conditions for your investment case, then compare them with new company data.

Reporting date not available
Check 1

Profitability recovery

The latest quarterly margin changed -0.8 percentage points from a year earlier. Check sales volumes, pricing and unusual gains in the next filing.

Review the starting point โ†“
Check 2

Valuation relative to peers

Recheck the valuation gap alongside profitability and growth after new results. A discount alone does not establish value.

Review the starting point โ†“
Check 3

Performance relative to the market

Compare the stock and the market fund over the same dates. Look for a change in relative performance as results arrive.

Review the starting point โ†“

Margin and cash conditions use the latest trailing statements where available. Revenue growth compares reported annual years. Factor figures through 2026-09-11.

Quarterly sales growth+8.3%

Through 2026-07-31. Compare the next quarter with the same period a year earlier. Check whether growth speeds up or slows down.

Quarterly operating margin+13.7%

Through 2026-07-31. Check whether the next results retain the latest margin. Separate recurring improvements from one-off gains.

Sales growth this financial year+9.2%

Through 2026-07-31. Check the cumulative result as each new quarter is added. Compare the same number of quarters last year.

Revenue+3.1%

Compare growth with the previous year and the current forecast.

Operating margin+11.4%

Check whether operating profit keeps pace with sales.

Cash generation1.39ร—

Check whether profit is turning into operating cash.

Borrowing3.05ร—

Check whether debt is falling relative to earnings.

Earnings forecasts-1.3%

Check whether analysts raised or lowered the same fiscal-period estimate.

Save your investment case

Keep a dated copy of your reasoning, valuation assumptions and conditions. New saves preserve earlier versions.

Conditions to follow
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Your saved versions

Conditions are checked against the latest available figures when you open this report. This does not place trades or send email alerts.

Sign in to keep your research and review changes over time.

Recent company filings
A dated investment case

Assessment changes

Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged. The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.

View analyst record โ†—
Published conditions and latest results
Conditions saved with the published assessment. Thresholds are review prompts, not forecasts.
MeasureAt publicationLatestChange
Quarterly sales growth8.34%8.34%Within starting range
Quarterly operating margin13.67%13.67%Within starting range
Operating cash / profit1.39ร—1.39ร—Within starting range
Net debt / EBITDA3.05ร—3.05ร—Within starting range
When we review a rating
Regular review

Every 90 days

Recheck the business, assumptions and valuation. The target keeps its original end date until that horizon expires. A routine data refresh does not issue a new rating.

Earlier review

When the evidence changes

New results, revised financial statements, a material company disclosure, a change in the valuation method or failing cash and debt checks trigger a review. Same-period guidance revisions require at least 5% for EPS or 10% for other measures. Consensus EPS revisions require 10% and at least three analysts.

Price movements

Wait for a sustained change

A price-only signal must persist for 14 days across separate completed weeks. Rating changes normally wait at least 30 days and must clear five-percentage-point entry and exit bands. A direct Buy-to-Sell or Sell-to-Buy change requires material company evidence.

Data and events

Suspend an unreliable call

Missing essential data, an unresolved material event or a share-basis change can suspend a call immediately. An expired target or data check more than three days overdue is not shown as an active rating. Original assessments remain in the record.

A reviewed target normally changes only by 5% or more; a rating change or an expired horizon can also require a new assessment. These are explicit research-policy thresholds, not statistically proven trading rules. Policy sm-review-2-research.

Published assessments ยท 5 versions
PublishedRatingTargetTarget dateReason
2026-09-16 ยท 5 โ†—Hold + Add$278.182027-09-11Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged. The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.
2026-09-16 ยท 4 โ†—Hold + Add$278.182027-09-11The model version changed. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged. The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.
2026-09-15 ยท 3 โ†—Hold + Add$278.182027-09-11Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged. The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.
2026-09-11 ยท 2 โ†—Hold + Add$278.182027-09-11Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged. The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.
2026-09-11 ยท 1 โ†—Hold$278.182027-09-11First recorded assessment.
Recent reviews, including unchanged decisions
  1. Published

    Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking.

    The model version changed.

    The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged.

    The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.

  2. Published

    The model version changed.

    The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged.

    The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.

  3. Retained

    Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking.

    The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.

  4. Published

    Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking.

    The model version changed.

    The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged.

    The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.

  5. Retained

    Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking.

    The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.

  6. Published

    Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking.

    The model version changed.

    The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged.

    The valuation supports a measured positive view, but the full Buy requirements are not met. Review borrowing.

  7. Published

    First recorded assessment.

Forecast record

Forecast accuracy

Forecast errors in sales, operating profit and cash are recorded separately from share-price outcomes. Preview records never enter live accuracy figures.

There are no completed live operating forecasts to assess yet. A useful record takes time; historical fits and preview scenarios are not substituted for it.

Every recorded forecast and available outcome
Recorded / modelPeriod endingMeasureForecast (USD)Actual (USD)Status
2026-09-11business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2027-07-31Sales98,841,205,264โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-11business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2027-07-31Net income7,739,395,713โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-11business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2028-07-31Sales108,032,376,349โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-11business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2028-07-31Net income8,459,076,437โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-11business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2027-07-31Sales98,841,205,264โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-11business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2027-07-31Net income7,739,395,713โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-11business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2028-07-31Sales108,032,376,349โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-11business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2028-07-31Net income8,459,076,437โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-15business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2027-07-31Sales98,841,205,264โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-15business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2027-07-31Net income7,739,395,713โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-15business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2028-07-31Sales108,032,376,349โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-15business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2028-07-31Net income8,459,076,437โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2027-07-31Sales98,841,205,264โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2027-07-31Net income7,739,395,713โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2028-07-31Sales108,032,376,349โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2028-07-31Net income8,459,076,437โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2027-07-31Sales98,841,205,264โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2027-07-31Net income7,739,395,713โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2028-07-31Sales108,032,376,349โ€”Waiting for results
2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis ยท live2028-07-31Net income8,459,076,437โ€”Waiting for results

Forecasts are frozen when recorded. Actuals use the matching full financial year or four reported quarters, on the forecast's stated profit basis. Dated results are retained; restatements are recorded separately. Forecasts made after the period began are identified. Revisions, overlapping periods and preview records are not independent evidence of forecasting skill. Read the share-price assessment record โ†—

Data and model checks

Data validation

Automated checks cover dates, units and accounting relationships. A matched filing fact confirms that reported amount and basis; it does not establish recurring earnings or validate a forecast.

Operating company

Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.

16 of 18 checks passed. 117 financial cells have a matched filing basis; 0 other recorded cells have not been matched to a standard filing fact here. Missing company-specific measures and forecast coverage are explained in their sections.

Dates, accounting checks and input reconciliation
CheckStatusWhat it checks
Price observationsPassedPrices must be positive, finite, in date order and have no duplicate weeks.
Historical price basisPassedNo material split or distribution discontinuity was found between the two price histories.
Price datePassedThe latest completed close must be no more than 14 days old.
Business modelPassedValue operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.
Earnings and share unitsPassedEarnings, profit and weighted shares are reconciled before per-share growth is used. No conflicting per-share comparisons were found.
Balance-sheet totalsPassedAssets must reconcile to liabilities and equity, allowing separately reported minority interests and 1% rounding tolerance. No conflicting complete balance sheets were found.
Consolidated depreciationReview neededDepreciation from a cash-flow reconciliation is distinguished from expense components. Conflicting amounts are excluded until the statement establishes their scope. Check 2019-01-31, 2020-01-31, 2021-01-31, 2022-01-31, 2023-01-31, 2024-01-31, 2024-04-30.
Statement currencyPassedValuation cash flows and the share price must use the same currency; amounts are not silently converted.
Publication datesPassedFuture financial periods and future filing dates cannot enter the assessment.
Known reporting datesPassed0 of the latest four quarters have no stored publication date. These cannot support a point-in-time claim.
Cash-flow identitiesPassedOperating cash plus negative capital spending must equal cash after capital spending. All comparable stored periods reconcile within 1%.
Operating-profit basisPassed4 of the latest four quarters have an explicit reported operating-income basis. EBIT may include non-operating items; it is not automatically treated as operating income.
Filed and stored totalsReview needed1 trailing input totals differ from the stored snapshot. The matched filed totals are used in this report; original figures remain in the reconciliation table.
Ownership source reconciliationPassedNo unresolved ownership source conflicts were found.
Financial periodPassedThe valuation needs a financial period no more than 150 days old.
Corporate-action basisPassedA split after the financial period needs a reviewed reconciliation of shares, earnings per share and the quoted price.
Share countPassedPer-share enterprise and book values require a positive current share count.
Ownership and debt amountsPassedDebt, cash, preferred stock and minority interests cannot be negative.
Trailing totals used in this report ยท USD
InputStored snapshotMatched filed quarters
Dividends paid ttm2692000000-2692000000
Sources and dates

Financial statements, completed weekly prices, analyst estimates and SEC filings where available. Forecast collection dates and fiscal periods are shown beside the figures.

Financial history may include restatements. This report describes current evidence; it is not a historical backtest. Estimates and model values can change.

Important information

SM Virtual Analyst is an automated research report for general information. Its model ratings and price targets are not personal investment advice, an offer to trade, or a guarantee of value or return. The report does not consider your financial circumstances, objectives, tax position or capacity for loss.

Reported figures can be delayed, incomplete, corrected or restated. Source checks confirm specific reported amounts and accounting relationships; they do not audit a company, establish recurring earnings or prove that a forecast is accurate. Missing information is not assumed to be zero unless a particular illustration expressly says so.

Valuations depend on the stated business model, assumptions and available data. Scenario ranges are illustrations, not probabilities, confidence intervals or limits on loss. Ratings use the disclosed review policy; they are not an independently validated prediction of future returns. Past performance and historical comparisons do not predict future results. An investment can lose its entire value.

Prices, financial periods, publication dates, model versions and review dates are shown in the report. The dated published assessment is separate from editable valuation illustrations. Unless expressly stated otherwise, price comparisons exclude dividends, fees and taxes. Check the latest company filings and subsequent events before making a decision, and seek qualified advice when needed.

Price & value

How the valuation works

For operating companies, the model estimates five years of after-tax operating profit, deducts the investment needed for growth and discounts the resulting cash. It adds a value for later years, deducts net debt and other ownership claims, then divides by the current share count.

For banks and insurers, it uses common equity and the earnings above the assumed cost of equity. Retained earnings fund growth; negative growth does not automatically release capital.

The discount rate expresses the annual return required for the risk. Higher rates reduce present value. Growth and margins move independently in the grid, so some combinations may be unrealistic. Check capital requirements and company guidance.

The starting scenario is an illustration based on recent results. A share price can be consistent with many combinations of assumptions. Values below zero are shown as zero equity value.

What changed

How to read the estimates

Each line follows the estimate for one financial year or quarter. Changing the selected period changes the earnings being forecast.

The analyst range shows the lowest and highest available estimates. It is not a probability interval. The analyst count shows coverage, not certainty.

Recent historical estimates supplied with a new collection are labelled separately from observations we recorded ourselves. Neither is treated as management guidance. Percentage revisions are left blank when the earlier estimate was zero or negative.

Forecasts more than seven days old are marked for review. A rising estimate does not guarantee that the share price will rise.

Evidence context