MEXA • NYSE • CTOS
US equities · completed weekly research
🇺🇸 NYSE · Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
CTOS beta and relative strength
Custom Truck One Source Inc
CTOS is weakening, but still above benchmark with market-like sensitivity to SPY.
Directional participation
CTOS in rising and falling SPY weeks
These percentages count what actually happened in completed weeks. They describe historical participation, not certainty about the next move.
The stock has joined rising benchmark weeks more consistently than falling ones.
58% of directional weeks moved the same way.CTOS also rose in 68% of 31 rising benchmark weeks.
CTOS also fell in 43% of 21 falling benchmark weeks.
+3.0% over 13 weeks12.5% volatility
After 20 earlier matches by market direction, directional participation is mixed.
Joined rising weeks85%
Joined falling weeks57%
Benchmark fit
CTOS sensitivity to SPY
The benchmark relationship is weak and explains 7% of weekly movement over the latest year. Current beta is 1.08 and is falling.
A wider range means the beta estimate is less precise.
How consistently rolling beta has held its level and direction.
The weekly regression intercept annualised; it is historical, not expected return.
Annualised volatility of returns above or below the benchmark.
-22.8 point change in movement explained across two distinct 26-week windows.
Weaker benchmark fitStronger benchmark fitLower sensitivityHigher sensitivity
The benchmark fit is too weak for the headline beta to be treated as a dependable description on its own.
If SPY rises 1%+1.38%historically associated CTOS move
If SPY falls 1%-1.93%historically associated CTOS move
Movement explained7%
Stability53%
Directional agreement58%
Rolling beta
26-week estimates show whether market sensitivity is rising or falling.
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Rolling betaMarket-like beta 1.00
Rolling relationship strength
Correlation shows direction; explained movement shows how useful the relationship has been.
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CorrelationMovement explained
PeriodBetaCorrelationMovement explainedAlphaExcess returnTracking error
6 months0.5815%2%+53.5%+17.9%53.9%
1 year1.0827%7%+39.7%+42.1%46.8%
2 years1.3839%15%+28.7%+77.7%50.3%
Relative strength
CTOS relative strength against SPY
The score compares the stock/benchmark ratio with its trailing 52-week average. Above zero means the ratio is above trend; direction shows whether that advantage is building or fading.
Relative-strength trend
Current score 16.90 · 13-week change -12.48
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Relative strengthZero baseline
Stock, benchmark and worthwhile peers
Each path starts at 100. Sector and industry appear only when their Market Structure indexes have enough constituents.
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
versus sector over 13 weeks · 633 constituents · 49% correlation
versus industry over 13 weeks · 19 constituents · 71% correlation
24% of weekly movement explained by the sector over one year.
50% of weekly movement explained by the industry over one year.
Return components
13-week and 52-week returns relative to SPY
This is a return bridge, not a claim of cause. It starts with the benchmark return, then shows the difference added at sector, industry and ticker level.
Broad market+3.0%
Sector difference-3.9%
Industry difference+5.6%
Ticker difference+1.1%
The largest source of relative strength was the industry difference. CTOS returned 5.9%; SPY returned 3.0%.
Broad market+20.0%
Sector difference-17.3%
Industry difference+3.4%
Ticker difference+56.0%
The largest source of relative strength was the ticker difference. CTOS returned 62.0%; SPY returned 20.0%.
Market conditions
CTOS in rising and falling benchmark weeks
Downside beta is higher than upside beta, so weak benchmark weeks have carried more sensitivity.
ConditionWeeksCTOS averageSPY averageBetaBeat benchmark
Benchmark up31+2.06%+1.47%1.3855%
Benchmark down21-0.18%-1.26%1.9357%
Strongest benchmark weeks10+3.33%+2.85%3.2760%
Weakest benchmark weeks10-1.90%-1.99%-6.0240%
Quieter benchmark weeks26+1.72%+0.28%0.9762%
Historical extremes
Strongest and weakest 13-week relative periods
Distinct 13-week windows prevent one long move from filling the list with overlapping dates.
Strongest relative periods
CTOS 82.2% · SPY 12.3%
The return pattern shows that the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.CTOS 62.0% · SPY 5.3%
The return pattern shows that the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.CTOS 50.2% · SPY 10.0%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.Weakest relative periods
CTOS -37.3% · SPY 6.7%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.CTOS -27.8% · SPY 7.3%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.CTOS -25.9% · SPY -1.1%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.Pressure and timing
Drawdowns and lead/lag relationship
The strongest link is in the same week. Lead/lag evidence is treated as secondary because timing relationships can change quickly.
Drawdown from each rolling high
Worst available drawdown: CTOS -44.3% · SPY -16.9%
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
CTOS drawdownSPY drawdown
-6%
4%
38%
2%
5%
Observable signals
Signals that would confirm or change the reading
These are conditions to monitor, not price targets or forecasts.
A fall through zero would show that the stock/benchmark ratio has moved below its trailing one-year average.
Downside beta is higher than upside beta. A narrowing gap would be the first sign of better asymmetry.
Rising beta means broad-market moves are carrying more weight; falling beta means ticker-specific forces are carrying more weight.
Strength shared by the peer group is broader; strength confined to the ticker is more company-specific and usually less stable.
Method and limits
Data and interpretation limits
- Data
- Completed weekly observations from 2024-03-29 to 2026-08-21 · 126 aligned weeks.
- Current reading
- 52 weeks; rolling charts use 26 weeks.
- Relative strength
- Stock/benchmark ratio compared with its trailing 52-week average.
- Peer evidence
- At least 10 sector constituents and 5 industry constituents. Thin groups are excluded.
- Boundary
- Historical relationship analysis, not a forecast or a statement of cause. Historical relationships can break without warning.