MEXA • NYSE • GPK
US equities · completed weekly research
🇺🇸 NYSE · Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
GPK beta and relative strength
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
GPK is recovering from below benchmark with higher sensitivity to SPY.
Directional participation
GPK in rising and falling SPY weeks
These percentages count what actually happened in completed weeks. They describe historical participation, not certainty about the next move.
The stock has joined falling benchmark weeks more consistently than rising ones.
52% of directional weeks moved the same way.GPK also rose in 42% of 31 rising benchmark weeks.
GPK also fell in 67% of 21 falling benchmark weeks.
+3.0% over 13 weeks12.5% volatility
After 17 earlier matches by direction and movement level, directional participation is mixed.
Joined rising weeks55%
Joined falling weeks50%
Benchmark fit
GPK sensitivity to SPY
The benchmark relationship is partial and explains 17% of weekly movement over the latest year. Current beta is 1.27 and is falling.
A wider range means the beta estimate is less precise.
How consistently rolling beta has held its level and direction.
The weekly regression intercept annualised; it is historical, not expected return.
Annualised volatility of returns above or below the benchmark.
-0.1 point change in movement explained across two distinct 26-week windows.
Weaker benchmark fitStronger benchmark fitLower sensitivityHigher sensitivity
The estimate carries information, but direction, stability or the likely range should be checked before relying on it.
If SPY rises 1%+2.25%historically associated GPK move
If SPY falls 1%-0.38%historically associated GPK move
Movement explained17%
Stability73%
Directional agreement52%
Rolling beta
26-week estimates show whether market sensitivity is rising or falling.
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Rolling betaMarket-like beta 1.00
Rolling relationship strength
Correlation shows direction; explained movement shows how useful the relationship has been.
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CorrelationMovement explained
PeriodBetaCorrelationMovement explainedAlphaExcess returnTracking error
6 months1.3041%17%-24.5%-14.1%41.8%
1 year1.2741%17%-78.7%-66.3%35.0%
2 years0.7937%14%-51.3%-97.1%31.1%
3 years0.7234%12%-28.1%-122.0%29.0%
5 years0.7542%17%-14.5%-117.7%26.8%
Relative strength
GPK relative strength against SPY
The score compares the stock/benchmark ratio with its trailing 52-week average. Above zero means the ratio is above trend; direction shows whether that advantage is building or fading.
Relative-strength trend
Current score -19.30 · 13-week change +25.25
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Relative strengthZero baseline
Stock, benchmark and worthwhile peers
Each path starts at 100. Sector and industry appear only when their Market Structure indexes have enough constituents.
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
versus sector over 13 weeks · 494 constituents · 60% correlation
versus industry over 13 weeks · 22 constituents · 66% correlation
36% of weekly movement explained by the sector over one year.
43% of weekly movement explained by the industry over one year.
Return components
13-week and 52-week returns relative to SPY
This is a return bridge, not a claim of cause. It starts with the benchmark return, then shows the difference added at sector, industry and ticker level.
Broad market+3.0%
Sector difference+0.6%
Industry difference+16.2%
Ticker difference-1.0%
The largest source of relative strength was the industry difference. GPK returned 18.8%; SPY returned 3.0%.
Broad market+20.0%
Sector difference-27.0%
Industry difference+11.8%
Ticker difference-51.1%
The largest source of relative weakness was the ticker difference. GPK returned -46.3%; SPY returned 20.0%.
Market conditions
GPK in rising and falling benchmark weeks
Upside beta is higher than downside beta, a historically favourable split.
ConditionWeeksGPK averageSPY averageBetaBeat benchmark
Benchmark up31+0.01%+1.47%2.2532%
Benchmark down21-2.61%-1.26%0.3838%
Strongest benchmark weeks10+3.54%+2.85%0.9050%
Weakest benchmark weeks10-3.36%-1.99%0.7040%
Quieter benchmark weeks26-2.12%+0.28%0.5627%
Historical extremes
Strongest and weakest 13-week relative periods
Distinct 13-week windows prevent one long move from filling the list with overlapping dates.
Strongest relative periods
GPK 17.6% · SPY -8.0%
The return pattern shows that the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.GPK 19.8% · SPY 3.3%
The return pattern shows that the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.GPK 18.8% · SPY 3.0%
The return pattern shows that the industry added to the move.Weakest relative periods
GPK -38.8% · SPY 3.9%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.GPK -12.0% · SPY 24.1%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.GPK -25.2% · SPY 10.0%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.Pressure and timing
Drawdowns and lead/lag relationship
The strongest link is in the same week. Lead/lag evidence is treated as secondary because timing relationships can change quickly.
Drawdown from each rolling high
Worst available drawdown: GPK -69.3% · SPY -23.9%
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
GPK drawdownSPY drawdown
-4%
-3%
34%
-10%
14%
Observable signals
Signals that would confirm or change the reading
These are conditions to monitor, not price targets or forecasts.
A sustained move above zero would mark a meaningful repair in the stock/benchmark ratio.
Upside beta is higher than downside beta. The favourable split remains intact while that gap stays positive.
Rising beta means broad-market moves are carrying more weight; falling beta means ticker-specific forces are carrying more weight.
Strength shared by the peer group is broader; strength confined to the ticker is more company-specific and usually less stable.
Method and limits
Data and interpretation limits
- Data
- Completed weekly observations from 2020-09-04 to 2026-08-21 · 312 aligned weeks.
- Current reading
- 52 weeks; rolling charts use 26 weeks.
- Relative strength
- Stock/benchmark ratio compared with its trailing 52-week average.
- Peer evidence
- At least 10 sector constituents and 5 industry constituents. Thin groups are excluded.
- Boundary
- Historical relationship analysis, not a forecast or a statement of cause. Historical relationships can break without warning.