MEXA • NASDAQ • UFCS
US equities · completed weekly research
🇺🇸 NASDAQ · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
UFCS beta and relative strength
United Fire Group Inc
UFCS is strengthening above benchmark with lower sensitivity to QQQ.
Directional participation
UFCS in rising and falling QQQ weeks
These percentages count what actually happened in completed weeks. They describe historical participation, not certainty about the next move.
The stock sometimes follows the benchmark, but neither direction has been consistently dependable.
48% of directional weeks moved the same way.UFCS also rose in 45% of 29 rising benchmark weeks.
UFCS also fell in 52% of 23 falling benchmark weeks.
-0.5% over 13 weeks21.8% volatility
After 17 earlier matches by direction and movement level, usually moves with the benchmark both ways.
Joined rising weeks69%
Joined falling weeks100%
Benchmark fit
UFCS sensitivity to QQQ
The benchmark relationship is weak and explains 0% of weekly movement over the latest year. Current beta is 0.12 and is stable.
A wider range means the beta estimate is less precise.
How consistently rolling beta has held its level and direction.
The weekly regression intercept annualised; it is historical, not expected return.
Annualised volatility of returns above or below the benchmark.
-7.6 point change in movement explained across two distinct 26-week windows.
Weaker benchmark fitStronger benchmark fitLower sensitivityHigher sensitivity
The benchmark fit is too weak for the headline beta to be treated as a dependable description on its own.
If QQQ rises 1%+1.66%historically associated UFCS move
If QQQ falls 1%+0.84%historically associated UFCS move
Movement explained0%
Stability46%
Directional agreement48%
Rolling beta
26-week estimates show whether market sensitivity is rising or falling.
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Rolling betaMarket-like beta 1.00
Rolling relationship strength
Correlation shows direction; explained movement shows how useful the relationship has been.
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CorrelationMovement explained
PeriodBetaCorrelationMovement explainedAlphaExcess returnTracking error
6 months0.5331%10%+54.3%+21.6%36.5%
1 year0.127%0%+55.8%+45.1%37.4%
2 years0.4525%6%+46.5%+120.6%38.3%
3 years0.2112%1%+34.9%+80.1%38.1%
5 years0.2313%2%+18.9%+22.5%40.9%
Relative strength
UFCS relative strength against QQQ
The score compares the stock/benchmark ratio with its trailing 52-week average. Above zero means the ratio is above trend; direction shows whether that advantage is building or fading.
Relative-strength trend
Current score 20.69 · 13-week change +4.65
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Relative strengthZero baseline
Stock, benchmark and worthwhile peers
Each path starts at 100. Sector and industry appear only when their Market Structure indexes have enough constituents.
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
versus sector over 13 weeks · 992 constituents · 27% correlation
versus industry over 13 weeks · 45 constituents · 46% correlation
8% of weekly movement explained by the sector over one year.
22% of weekly movement explained by the industry over one year.
Return components
13-week and 52-week returns relative to QQQ
This is a return bridge, not a claim of cause. It starts with the benchmark return, then shows the difference added at sector, industry and ticker level.
Broad market-0.5%
Sector difference+5.6%
Industry difference+10.8%
Ticker difference-3.0%
The largest source of relative strength was the industry difference. UFCS returned 12.9%; QQQ returned -0.5%.
Broad market+25.2%
Sector difference-20.2%
Industry difference+11.9%
Ticker difference+53.4%
The largest source of relative strength was the ticker difference. UFCS returned 70.3%; QQQ returned 25.2%.
Market conditions
UFCS in rising and falling benchmark weeks
Upside beta is higher than downside beta, a historically favourable split.
ConditionWeeksUFCS averageQQQ averageBetaBeat benchmark
Benchmark up29+0.79%+2.29%1.6621%
Benchmark down23+1.56%-1.84%-0.8474%
Strongest benchmark weeks10+3.72%+4.05%2.2030%
Weakest benchmark weeks10+2.54%-3.12%-1.60100%
Quieter benchmark weeks26-0.24%+0.23%-0.3631%
Historical extremes
Strongest and weakest 13-week relative periods
Distinct 13-week windows prevent one long move from filling the list with overlapping dates.
Strongest relative periods
UFCS 35.2% · QQQ -15.4%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.UFCS 47.7% · QQQ 2.2%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.UFCS 50.3% · QQQ 7.2%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.Weakest relative periods
UFCS -21.4% · QQQ 19.6%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.UFCS -23.4% · QQQ 10.7%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.UFCS -18.3% · QQQ 10.0%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.Pressure and timing
Drawdowns and lead/lag relationship
The strongest link is in the same week. Lead/lag evidence is treated as secondary because timing relationships can change quickly.
Drawdown from each rolling high
Worst available drawdown: UFCS -48.0% · QQQ -35.1%
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
UFCS drawdownQQQ drawdown
5%
-10%
12%
-1%
9%
Observable signals
Signals that would confirm or change the reading
These are conditions to monitor, not price targets or forecasts.
A fall through zero would show that the stock/benchmark ratio has moved below its trailing one-year average.
Upside beta is higher than downside beta. The favourable split remains intact while that gap stays positive.
Rising beta means broad-market moves are carrying more weight; falling beta means ticker-specific forces are carrying more weight.
Strength shared by the peer group is broader; strength confined to the ticker is more company-specific and usually less stable.
Method and limits
Data and interpretation limits
- Data
- Completed weekly observations from 2020-09-04 to 2026-08-21 · 312 aligned weeks.
- Current reading
- 52 weeks; rolling charts use 26 weeks.
- Relative strength
- Stock/benchmark ratio compared with its trailing 52-week average.
- Peer evidence
- At least 10 sector constituents and 5 industry constituents. Thin groups are excluded.
- Boundary
- Historical relationship analysis, not a forecast or a statement of cause. Historical relationships can break without warning.