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🇺🇸 NASDAQ · Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates

TREE beta and relative strength

Lendingtree Inc

TREE is weakening below benchmark with higher sensitivity to QQQ.

Week ending Latest completed weekly edition
Next update 15:40 UK · after Stage Analysis
One-year beta 1.30Higher sensitivity · Falling
Movement explained 14%37% weekly correlation
Relative strength-44.31Weakening below benchmark
Downside beta -0.78Upside beta 2.18
One-year excess return-80.8%-55.6% stock · 25.2% benchmark
Directional participation

TREE in rising and falling QQQ weeks

These percentages count what actually happened in completed weeks. They describe historical participation, not certainty about the next move.

Latest 52-week reading Usually moves with the benchmark both ways

Rising and falling benchmark weeks have both produced consistent directional participation.

71% of directional weeks moved the same way.
When QQQ rose72%

TREE also rose in 72% of 29 rising benchmark weeks.

When QQQ fell70%

TREE also fell in 70% of 23 falling benchmark weeks.

Market state now Range-bound market with active movement
-0.5% over 13 weeks21.8% volatility

After 17 earlier matches by direction and movement level, directional participation is mixed.

Joined rising weeks62%
Joined falling weeks75%
Limited sample · 65% same-direction rate · 3.05 beta
Benchmark fit

TREE sensitivity to QQQ

The benchmark relationship is weak and explains 14% of weekly movement over the latest year. Current beta is 1.30 and is falling.

Likely beta range0.40 to 2.20

A wider range means the beta estimate is less precise.

Beta stability42/100

How consistently rolling beta has held its level and direction.

Annualised alpha-91.3%

The weekly regression intercept annualised; it is historical, not expected return.

Tracking error59.4%

Annualised volatility of returns above or below the benchmark.

Relationship directionRelationship breaking down

-35.0 point change in movement explained across two distinct 26-week windows.

Beta and benchmark fitBeta is secondary evidence only
Weaker benchmark fitStronger benchmark fitLower sensitivityHigher sensitivity

The benchmark fit is too weak for the headline beta to be treated as a dependable description on its own.

Historical one-week sensitivity
If QQQ rises 1%+2.18%historically associated TREE move
If QQQ falls 1%+0.78%historically associated TREE move
Likely beta range 0.40 to 2.20 · width 1.80
Can the beta be trusted?Weak relationship
Movement explained14%
Stability42%
Directional agreement71%

Rolling beta

26-week estimates show whether market sensitivity is rising or falling.

Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Rolling betaMarket-like beta 1.00

Rolling relationship strength

Correlation shows direction; explained movement shows how useful the relationship has been.

Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
CorrelationMovement explained
PeriodBetaCorrelationMovement explainedAlphaExcess returnTracking error
6 months0.6021%5%-47.9%-38.2%60.3%
1 year1.3037%14%-91.3%-80.8%59.4%
2 years0.9028%8%-30.1%-96.2%62.1%
3 years1.2833%11%+11.9%-33.7%71.7%
5 years1.5244%19%-31.1%-177.1%68.1%
Relative strength

TREE relative strength against QQQ

The score compares the stock/benchmark ratio with its trailing 52-week average. Above zero means the ratio is above trend; direction shows whether that advantage is building or fading.

Relative-strength trend

Current score -44.31 · 13-week change -4.51

Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Relative strengthZero baseline

Stock, benchmark and worthwhile peers

Each path starts at 100. Sector and industry appear only when their Market Structure indexes have enough constituents.

Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Sector · Financial Services-20.5 points

versus sector over 13 weeks · 992 constituents · 43% correlation

Industry · Financial Conglomerates-10.6 points

versus industry over 13 weeks · 7 constituents · 60% correlation

Sensitivity to Financial Services2.54 beta

18% of weekly movement explained by the sector over one year.

Sensitivity to Financial Conglomerates1.41 beta

36% of weekly movement explained by the industry over one year.

Return components

13-week and 52-week returns relative to QQQ

This is a return bridge, not a claim of cause. It starts with the benchmark return, then shows the difference added at sector, industry and ticker level.

Last 13 weeks-14.9 points vs benchmark
Broad market-0.5%
Sector difference+5.6%
Industry difference-9.9%
Ticker difference-10.6%

The largest source of relative weakness was the ticker difference. TREE returned -15.4%; QQQ returned -0.5%.

Last 52 weeks-80.8 points vs benchmark
Broad market+25.2%
Sector difference-20.2%
Industry difference+6.8%
Ticker difference-67.4%

The largest source of relative weakness was the ticker difference. TREE returned -55.6%; QQQ returned 25.2%.

Market conditions

TREE in rising and falling benchmark weeks

Upside beta is higher than downside beta, a historically favourable split.

Upside beta2.1863% upside capture
Downside beta-0.78240% downside capture
Current splitMore responsive in rising markets+2.96 beta gap
ConditionWeeksTREE averageQQQ averageBetaBeat benchmark
Benchmark up29+1.43%+2.29%2.1841%
Benchmark down23-4.41%-1.84%-0.7830%
Strongest benchmark weeks10+4.34%+4.05%1.6340%
Weakest benchmark weeks10-4.29%-3.12%-3.4050%
Quieter benchmark weeks26-3.70%+0.23%1.0627%
Historical extremes

Strongest and weakest 13-week relative periods

Distinct 13-week windows prevent one long move from filling the list with overlapping dates.

Strongest relative periods

2023-11-03 to 2024-01-26+195.3 pts

TREE 218.4% · QQQ 23.0%

The return pattern shows that the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.
2025-06-27 to 2025-09-19+99.8 pts

TREE 113.7% · QQQ 13.9%

The return pattern shows that the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.
2022-11-25 to 2023-02-17+76.9 pts

TREE 82.9% · QQQ 6.0%

The return pattern shows that the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.

Weakest relative periods

2023-03-03 to 2023-05-26-68.9 pts

TREE -49.3% · QQQ 19.6%

The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.
2022-05-27 to 2022-08-19-51.9 pts

TREE -39.9% · QQQ 12.0%

The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.
2023-07-28 to 2023-10-20-51.0 pts

TREE -56.5% · QQQ -5.5%

The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.
Pressure and timing

Drawdowns and lead/lag relationship

The strongest link is in the same week. Lead/lag evidence is treated as secondary because timing relationships can change quickly.

Drawdown from each rolling high

Worst available drawdown: TREE -93.6% · QQQ -35.1%

Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
TREE drawdownQQQ drawdown
Ticker leads 2w
-4%
Ticker leads 1w
-10%
Same week
33%
Benchmark leads 1w
-1%
Benchmark leads 2w
-11%
Observable signals

Signals that would confirm or change the reading

These are conditions to monitor, not price targets or forecasts.

Relative strengthBelow the zero baseline

A sustained move above zero would mark a meaningful repair in the stock/benchmark ratio.

Up/down beta+2.96 upside-minus-downside gap

Upside beta is higher than downside beta. The favourable split remains intact while that gap stays positive.

Exposure trendBeta is falling

Rising beta means broad-market moves are carrying more weight; falling beta means ticker-specific forces are carrying more weight.

Peer confirmation-10.6 points versus Financial Conglomerates over 13 weeks

Strength shared by the peer group is broader; strength confined to the ticker is more company-specific and usually less stable.

Method and limits

Data and interpretation limits

Data
Completed weekly observations from 2020-09-04 to 2026-08-21 · 312 aligned weeks.
Current reading
52 weeks; rolling charts use 26 weeks.
Relative strength
Stock/benchmark ratio compared with its trailing 52-week average.
Peer evidence
At least 10 sector constituents and 5 industry constituents. Thin groups are excluded.
Boundary
Historical relationship analysis, not a forecast or a statement of cause. Historical relationships can break without warning.

Evidence context