MEXA • NASDAQ • USAR
US equities · completed weekly research
🇺🇸 NASDAQ · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
USAR beta and relative strength
USA Rare Earth, Inc.
USAR is weakening below benchmark with very high sensitivity to QQQ.
Directional participation
USAR in rising and falling QQQ weeks
These percentages count what actually happened in completed weeks. They describe historical participation, not certainty about the next move.
Rising and falling benchmark weeks have both produced consistent directional participation.
69% of directional weeks moved the same way.USAR also rose in 66% of 29 rising benchmark weeks.
USAR also fell in 74% of 23 falling benchmark weeks.
-0.5% over 13 weeks21.8% volatility
After 27 earlier matches by market direction, usually moves with the benchmark both ways.
Joined rising weeks76%
Joined falling weeks83%
Benchmark fit
USAR sensitivity to QQQ
The benchmark relationship is partial and explains 17% of weekly movement over the latest year. Current beta is 2.51 and is rising.
A wider range means the beta estimate is less precise.
How consistently rolling beta has held its level and direction.
The weekly regression intercept annualised; it is historical, not expected return.
Annualised volatility of returns above or below the benchmark.
+53.0 point change in movement explained across two distinct 26-week windows.
Weaker benchmark fitStronger benchmark fitLower sensitivityHigher sensitivity
The estimate carries information, but direction, stability or the likely range should be checked before relying on it.
If QQQ rises 1%+1.25%historically associated USAR move
If QQQ falls 1%-2.87%historically associated USAR move
Movement explained17%
Stability0%
Directional agreement69%
Rolling beta
26-week estimates show whether market sensitivity is rising or falling.
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Rolling betaMarket-like beta 1.00
Rolling relationship strength
Correlation shows direction; explained movement shows how useful the relationship has been.
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
CorrelationMovement explained
PeriodBetaCorrelationMovement explainedAlphaExcess returnTracking error
6 months3.0374%55%-43.1%-5.6%74.5%
1 year2.5141%17%+16.2%-4.0%105.7%
2 years0.397%0%+88.7%+30.3%120.1%
3 years0.286%0%+59.7%-9.8%98.8%
Relative strength
USAR relative strength against QQQ
The score compares the stock/benchmark ratio with its trailing 52-week average. Above zero means the ratio is above trend; direction shows whether that advantage is building or fading.
Relative-strength trend
Current score -10.28 · 13-week change -32.01
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Relative strengthZero baseline
Stock, benchmark and worthwhile peers
Each path starts at 100. Sector and industry appear only when their Market Structure indexes have enough constituents.
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
versus sector over 13 weeks · 224 constituents · 53% correlation
versus industry over 13 weeks · 40 constituents · 72% correlation
28% of weekly movement explained by the sector over one year.
52% of weekly movement explained by the industry over one year.
Return components
13-week and 52-week returns relative to QQQ
This is a return bridge, not a claim of cause. It starts with the benchmark return, then shows the difference added at sector, industry and ticker level.
Broad market-0.5%
Sector difference+0.1%
Industry difference-11.5%
Ticker difference-12.0%
The largest source of relative weakness was the ticker difference. USAR returned -23.9%; QQQ returned -0.5%.
Broad market+25.2%
Sector difference+0.5%
Industry difference-3.8%
Ticker difference-0.7%
The largest source of relative weakness was the industry difference. USAR returned 21.2%; QQQ returned 25.2%.
Market conditions
USAR in rising and falling benchmark weeks
Downside beta is higher than upside beta, so weak benchmark weeks have carried more sensitivity.
ConditionWeeksUSAR averageQQQ averageBetaBeat benchmark
Benchmark up29+6.67%+2.29%1.2552%
Benchmark down23-5.08%-1.84%2.8730%
Strongest benchmark weeks10+7.55%+4.05%5.2650%
Weakest benchmark weeks10-8.06%-3.12%7.2210%
Quieter benchmark weeks26+2.62%+0.23%3.5546%
Historical extremes
Strongest and weakest 13-week relative periods
Distinct 13-week windows prevent one long move from filling the list with overlapping dates.
Strongest relative periods
USAR 204.5% · QQQ 6.5%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.USAR 88.0% · QQQ 17.0%
The return pattern shows that the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.USAR 47.2% · QQQ -9.4%
The return pattern shows that the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.Weakest relative periods
USAR -47.0% · QQQ 6.4%
The return pattern shows that the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.USAR -43.2% · QQQ 2.2%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.USAR -28.6% · QQQ 10.0%
The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.Pressure and timing
Drawdowns and lead/lag relationship
The strongest link is in the same week. Lead/lag evidence is treated as secondary because timing relationships can change quickly.
Drawdown from each rolling high
Worst available drawdown: USAR -67.9% · QQQ -21.3%
Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
USAR drawdownQQQ drawdown
-2%
17%
6%
7%
-12%
Observable signals
Signals that would confirm or change the reading
These are conditions to monitor, not price targets or forecasts.
A sustained move above zero would mark a meaningful repair in the stock/benchmark ratio.
Downside beta is higher than upside beta. A narrowing gap would be the first sign of better asymmetry.
Rising beta means broad-market moves are carrying more weight; falling beta means ticker-specific forces are carrying more weight.
Strength shared by the peer group is broader; strength confined to the ticker is more company-specific and usually less stable.
Method and limits
Data and interpretation limits
- Data
- Completed weekly observations from 2023-07-28 to 2026-08-21 · 161 aligned weeks.
- Current reading
- 52 weeks; rolling charts use 26 weeks.
- Relative strength
- Stock/benchmark ratio compared with its trailing 52-week average.
- Peer evidence
- At least 10 sector constituents and 5 industry constituents. Thin groups are excluded.
- Boundary
- Historical relationship analysis, not a forecast or a statement of cause. Historical relationships can break without warning.