MEXA  โ€ข  NYSE  โ€ข  NPO US equities ยท completed weekly research
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ NYSE ยท Industrials ยท Specialty Industrial Machinery

NPO beta and relative strength

Enpro Industries

NPO is weakening, but still above benchmark with market-like sensitivity to SPY.

Week ending Latest completed weekly edition
Next update 15:40 UK ยท after Stage Analysis
One-year beta 1.06Market-like sensitivity ยท Stable
Movement explained 12%35% weekly correlation
Relative strength+7.18Weakening, but still above benchmark
Downside beta 0.94Upside beta 0.91
One-year excess return+18.1%38.1% stock ยท 20.0% benchmark
Directional participation

NPO in rising and falling SPY weeks

These percentages count what actually happened in completed weeks. They describe historical participation, not certainty about the next move.

Latest 52-week reading Usually moves with the benchmark both ways

Rising and falling benchmark weeks have both produced consistent directional participation.

69% of directional weeks moved the same way.
When SPY rose71%

NPO also rose in 71% of 31 rising benchmark weeks.

When SPY fell67%

NPO also fell in 67% of 21 falling benchmark weeks.

Market state now Range-bound market with normal movement
+3.0% over 13 weeks12.5% volatility

After 17 earlier matches by direction and movement level, more dependable when the benchmark rises.

Joined rising weeks91%
Joined falling weeks50%
Limited sample ยท 76% same-direction rate ยท 1.71 beta
Benchmark fit

NPO sensitivity to SPY

The benchmark relationship is weak and explains 12% of weekly movement over the latest year. Current beta is 1.06 and is stable.

Likely beta range0.28 to 1.83

A wider range means the beta estimate is less precise.

Beta stability75/100

How consistently rolling beta has held its level and direction.

Annualised alpha+18.9%

The weekly regression intercept annualised; it is historical, not expected return.

Tracking error34.1%

Annualised volatility of returns above or below the benchmark.

Relationship directionRelationship breaking down

-13.3 point change in movement explained across two distinct 26-week windows.

Beta and benchmark fitBeta is secondary evidence only
Weaker benchmark fitStronger benchmark fitLower sensitivityHigher sensitivity

The benchmark fit is too weak for the headline beta to be treated as a dependable description on its own.

Historical one-week sensitivity
If SPY rises 1%+0.91%historically associated NPO move
If SPY falls 1%-0.94%historically associated NPO move
Likely beta range 0.28 to 1.83 ยท width 1.55
Can the beta be trusted?Weak relationship
Movement explained12%
Stability75%
Directional agreement69%

Rolling beta

26-week estimates show whether market sensitivity is rising or falling.

Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Rolling betaMarket-like beta 1.00

Rolling relationship strength

Correlation shows direction; explained movement shows how useful the relationship has been.

Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
CorrelationMovement explained
PeriodBetaCorrelationMovement explainedAlphaExcess returnTracking error
6 months0.8329%9%+15.3%+2.4%38.7%
1 year1.0635%12%+18.9%+18.1%34.1%
2 years1.3156%31%+17.2%+57.9%30.3%
3 years1.2854%29%+8.9%+61.6%29.3%
5 years1.1353%28%+17.4%+191.9%29.7%
Relative strength

NPO relative strength against SPY

The score compares the stock/benchmark ratio with its trailing 52-week average. Above zero means the ratio is above trend; direction shows whether that advantage is building or fading.

Relative-strength trend

Current score 7.18 ยท 13-week change -10.52

Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Relative strengthZero baseline

Stock, benchmark and worthwhile peers

Each path starts at 100. Sector and industry appear only when their Market Structure indexes have enough constituents.

Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
Sector ยท Industrials+2.4 points

versus sector over 13 weeks ยท 633 constituents ยท 54% correlation

Industry ยท Specialty Industrial Machinery+3.7 points

versus industry over 13 weeks ยท 72 constituents ยท 72% correlation

Sensitivity to Industrials1.11 beta

29% of weekly movement explained by the sector over one year.

Sensitivity to Specialty Industrial Machinery1.23 beta

51% of weekly movement explained by the industry over one year.

Return components

13-week and 52-week returns relative to SPY

This is a return bridge, not a claim of cause. It starts with the benchmark return, then shows the difference added at sector, industry and ticker level.

Last 13 weeks-1.4 points vs benchmark
Broad market+3.0%
Sector difference-3.9%
Industry difference-1.3%
Ticker difference+3.7%

The largest source of relative weakness was the sector difference. NPO returned 1.5%; SPY returned 3.0%.

Last 52 weeks+18.1 points vs benchmark
Broad market+20.0%
Sector difference-17.3%
Industry difference+7.2%
Ticker difference+28.3%

The largest source of relative strength was the ticker difference. NPO returned 38.1%; SPY returned 20.0%.

Market conditions

NPO in rising and falling benchmark weeks

Upside and downside beta are close, with no strong asymmetry in the current one-year window.

Upside beta0.91137% upside capture
Downside beta0.9488% downside capture
Current splitSimilar sensitivity up and down-0.03 beta gap
ConditionWeeksNPO averageSPY averageBetaBeat benchmark
Benchmark up31+2.00%+1.47%0.9155%
Benchmark down21-1.10%-1.26%0.9443%
Strongest benchmark weeks10+3.42%+2.85%0.5060%
Weakest benchmark weeks10-1.61%-1.99%-2.2850%
Quieter benchmark weeks26+0.78%+0.28%1.3250%
Historical extremes

Strongest and weakest 13-week relative periods

Distinct 13-week windows prevent one long move from filling the list with overlapping dates.

Strongest relative periods

2026-04-03 to 2026-06-26+38.2 pts

NPO 53.4% ยท SPY 15.3%

The return pattern shows that the industry added to the move, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.
2023-05-05 to 2023-07-28+35.0 pts

NPO 45.2% ยท SPY 10.3%

The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.
2022-08-12 to 2022-11-04+31.5 pts

NPO 22.9% ยท SPY -8.6%

The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.

Weakest relative periods

2024-04-12 to 2024-07-05-22.6 pts

NPO -15.3% ยท SPY 7.3%

The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.
2023-02-03 to 2023-04-28-20.9 pts

NPO -18.0% ยท SPY 2.9%

The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.
2021-06-18 to 2021-09-10-20.6 pts

NPO -15.2% ยท SPY 5.3%

The return pattern shows that the sector moved the same way, and the ticker moved beyond its peer backdrop.
Pressure and timing

Drawdowns and lead/lag relationship

The strongest link is in the same week. Lead/lag evidence is treated as secondary because timing relationships can change quickly.

Drawdown from each rolling high

Worst available drawdown: NPO -31.4% ยท SPY -23.9%

Move across the chart to inspect a completed week.
NPO drawdownSPY drawdown
Ticker leads 2w
0%
Ticker leads 1w
-5%
Same week
54%
Benchmark leads 1w
8%
Benchmark leads 2w
1%
Observable signals

Signals that would confirm or change the reading

These are conditions to monitor, not price targets or forecasts.

Relative strengthAbove the zero baseline

A fall through zero would show that the stock/benchmark ratio has moved below its trailing one-year average.

Up/down beta-0.03 upside-minus-downside gap

Upside and downside beta are close. A widening gap will show which side is taking control.

Exposure trendBeta is stable

Rising beta means broad-market moves are carrying more weight; falling beta means ticker-specific forces are carrying more weight.

Peer confirmation+3.7 points versus Specialty Industrial Machinery over 13 weeks

Strength shared by the peer group is broader; strength confined to the ticker is more company-specific and usually less stable.

Method and limits

Data and interpretation limits

Data
Completed weekly observations from 2020-09-04 to 2026-08-21 ยท 312 aligned weeks.
Current reading
52 weeks; rolling charts use 26 weeks.
Relative strength
Stock/benchmark ratio compared with its trailing 52-week average.
Peer evidence
At least 10 sector constituents and 5 industry constituents. Thin groups are excluded.
Boundary
Historical relationship analysis, not a forecast or a statement of cause. Historical relationships can break without warning.

Evidence context