Company valuation ยท Consumer Cyclical
MCD: Hold + Add with a $338.27 price target
McDonaldโs Corporation. Year-to-date profit has improved, but capital spending changes the cash picture.
- Model target ยท USD
- $338.27 For 2027-09-11
- Model rating
- Hold + Add Reviewed 2026-09-16
- Reference weekly close
- $252.53 2026-09-11 ยท USD

Investment view
Year-to-date profit has improved, but capital spending changes the cash picture.
Target and reference price
Target for 2027-09-11: $338.27 USD, +34.0% versus the $252.53 weekly close on 2026-09-11. Price return only; dividends, fees and tax excluded.
Price and earnings
Over 1 year (2025-09-12 to 2026-09-11), price changed -17.3% and trailing EPS changed +5.3%. A wider gap changes the earnings multiple; it does not establish fair value.
Supporting evidence
Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 4,345.0m versus 4,121.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Revenue changed +3.7% from the same quarter last year, through 2026-06-30. The previous quarterโs year-on-year change was +9.4%.
Risks to the case
Operating cash covers 1.29 times profit, but cash after capital spending covers 0.88 times. Cash generation is stronger before the investment bill is paid.
The latest quarterly operating margin was 47.0%, -0.2 percentage points from a year earlier. The full report separates sales growth from margin changes.
What to monitor
Watch whether cash after capital spending closes the gap with profit. It currently covers 0.88 times profit over four quarters.
The latest quarterly margin changed -0.2 percentage points from a year earlier. Check sales volumes, pricing and unusual gains in the next filing.
Recheck the valuation gap alongside profitability and growth after new results. A discount alone does not establish value.
Valuation assumptions
Starting annual sales growth: 6.58%.
Net profit margin: 31.78%.
About this assessment
Review recorded on 2026-09-16. This is a dated summary of an automated company valuation. The full report includes the financial evidence, alternative scenarios and review history. Consult the latest report before using an earlier target. Automated model research, not personal investment advice. Targets depend on assumptions; returns are not guaranteed.