Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
AIFC options intelligence
AI Financial Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
46
Market data through 13 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 19:07 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
AIFC currently carries volatility options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 34.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
34.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.36
Call-side skew
Trend fit
43
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+6.4%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
34.2%
Put-call volume
0.36
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
6.30
Max pain
1.00
Underlying
0.44
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
55
Research Brief
AIFC has a volatility chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 0.29–0.59; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.00; the largest put concentration is 1.50. The most active strike by current volume is 0.50.
Priced range0.29–0.59
Call concentration2.00
Put concentration1.50
Max pain reference1.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 0.29 to 0.59. Max pain at 1.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
0.290.44 ± 0.150.59
Confirmation level
A close beyond 0.59 or below 0.29 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 46/100
Pressure is 57/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure57 × 42%
+23.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation8 × 22%
+1.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement43 × 26%
+11.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.00; the largest put concentration is 1.50. The most active strike by current volume is 0.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1046
0.5014.1%
571
664
1.00128.2%
1004
1091
1.50242.3%
1114
0
2.00356.4%
1841
13
3.00584.6%
0
0
4.00812.8%
568
0
5.001041.0%
38
0
6.001269.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$1,433Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak2.00+$407
Negative peak0.50-$165
Nearest balance0.67Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
0.5014.1%
-$165
1.00128.2%
+$333
1.50242.3%
+$181
2.00356.4%
+$407
2.50470.5%
+$0
3.00584.6%
+$326
4.00812.8%
+$168
5.001041.0%
+$76
7.001497.4%
+$107
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
6.30
21 Aug
8d
5.28
18 Sep
36d
2.65
20 Nov
99d
1.42
15 Jan
155d
0.92
21 Jan
526d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
1
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes95%
Open interest95%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 13 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 55 / 55
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $25,064 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+57
1W price+6.4%
Call premium10%
Put premium90%
Notional split
C 10% / P 90%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
43/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 92 contracts traded, $15,313 estimated gross traded notional, and 61% of visible notional.
$15,313
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 32 contracts traded, $7,200 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$7,200
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 267 contracts traded, $2,192 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2,192
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 75 contracts traded, $353 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$353
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $6 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$6
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank73th
Volume/OI rank73th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close0.44
1W+6.4%
RS-
Fair value-27.1%
Options pressure57
Speculation8
Volatility96
Trend fit43
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 39.5% · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 2.58 · 11 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.13 · 11 sessions
91th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.01 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:44
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 39.2%
30 Jul 11:23
Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 34.6%
31 Jul 10:54
Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 51.9%
3 Aug 10:00
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 42.5%
4 Aug 11:00
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 40.1%
5 Aug 11:24
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 40.1%
6 Aug 11:35
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 37.6%
8 Aug 23:01
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 28.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike0.50
Calls · V 54 · OI 571
Puts · V 1 · OI 1046
Strike1.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1004
Puts · V 2 · OI 664
Strike1.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 1114
Puts · V 1 · OI 1091
Strike2.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1841
Puts · V 19 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike4.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 568
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 38
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike6.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 0
Puts · V 9 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV6.30
Put-call0.43
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts1
Avg IV5.28
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV2.65
Put-call0.24
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV1.42
Put-call0.51
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts15
Avg IV0.92
Put-call0.32
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV2.00
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV5.28
Put IV-
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.19
Put IV-
Skew-
15 Jan 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV1.92
Put IV-
Skew-
21 Jan 2028Incomplete skew
Call IV1.34
Put IV-
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAIFC280121P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractAIFC270115P00001500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike1.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractAIFC270115P00007000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractAIFC270115P00004000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike4.00
Volume-
OI43
IV1.84
ContractAIFC270115P00003000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike3.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.00
ContractAIFC260821P00003000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike3.00
Volume-
OI13
IV7.00
ContractAIFC280121P00004000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike4.00
Volume-
OI3
IV-
ContractAIFC261120C00000500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike0.50
Volume100
OI530
IV1.19
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.