Ticker Options Intelligence

CMS options intelligence

CMS Energy Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 46 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 11:26 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

CMS currently carries bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 2.5%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.03

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.5%

RS -13.1

Expected move 2.5%
Put-call volume 0.03
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.31
Max pain 70.00
Underlying 71.03
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 124

Research Brief

CMS has a bullish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 69.28–72.78; The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00.

Priced range69.28–72.78
Call concentration80.00
Put concentration70.00
Max pain reference70.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 69.28 to 72.78. Max pain at 70.00 sits inside that range, 1.5% below spot.

Spot Max pain
69.2871.03 ± 1.7572.78
Confirmation level

A close beyond 72.78 or below 69.28 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 46/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation4 × 22%
+0.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility32 × 10%
+3.2

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score46.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
40.00-43.7%
0
0
45.00-36.6%
0
0
50.00-29.6%
0
0
55.00-22.6%
0
91
60.00-15.5%
0
4
65.00-8.5%
0
108
70.00-1.5%
250
0
75.005.6%
299
2
80.0012.6%
305
0
85.0019.7%
10
0
90.0026.7%
0
0
95.0033.7%
0
0
100.0040.8%
0
0
105.0047.8%
0
0
110.0054.9%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$243,556Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak70.00+$145,546
Negative peak65.00-$13,815
Nearest balance65.43Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
50.00-29.6%
-$15
55.00-22.6%
-$791
60.00-15.5%
-$4,081
65.00-8.5%
-$13,815
70.00-1.5%
+$145,546
75.005.6%
+$70,422
80.0012.6%
+$35,187
85.0019.7%
+$9,518
90.0026.7%
+$825
95.0033.7%
+$760
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.54× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.31 21 Aug 9d
0.22 18 Sep 37d
0.21 18 Dec 128d
0.20 19 Mar 219d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

60
65
70
75
80
85
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
124 / 124
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

66/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $6,772 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price-0.5%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split C 99% / P 1% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $3,080 estimated gross traded notional, and 45% of visible notional.
$3,080
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $2,932 estimated gross traded notional, and 43% of visible notional.
$2,932
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $388 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$388
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $275 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$275
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $98 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$98

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

45

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 11 completed sessions

Volume rank18th
Volume/OI rank18th
IV rank100th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close71.03
1W-0.5%
RS-13.1
Fair value+9.7%
Options pressure100
Speculation4
Volatility32
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 2.5% muted
30d avg 4.0% · 11 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
IV 0.31 elevated
30d avg 0.26 · 11 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.03 muted
30d avg 3.29 · 11 sessions 9th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 muted
30d avg 0.04 · 11 sessions 18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:16 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 4.6%
30 Jul 10:12 Bearish
Pressure -32
Move 3.9%
31 Jul 10:05 Bearish
Pressure -84
Move 5.2%
3 Aug 08:26 Bullish
Pressure 89
Move 4.3%
4 Aug 10:11 Bearish
Pressure -38
Move 4.8%
4 Aug 18:04 Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 3.9%
4 Aug 19:48 Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 4.2%
5 Aug 06:09 Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 4.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 91
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike70.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 250
Puts · V 1 · OI 108
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 299
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.20
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.21
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts30
Avg IV0.20
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.41
Skew0.22
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.09
Put IV0.26
Skew0.17
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.24
Skew0.02
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.25
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCMS260918C00070000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume17
OI176
IV0.18
ContractCMS260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume12
OI864
IV0.17
ContractCMS260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume5
OI250
IV0.17
ContractCMS270319C00065000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike65.00
Volume3
OI9
IV0.18
ContractCMS260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume1
OI180
IV0.09
ContractCMS260821P00070000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume1
OI108
IV0.23
ContractCMS261218C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike65.00
Volume1
OI2
IV0.24
ContractCMS260918C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume-
OI447
IV0.24

Evidence context