Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
NWE options intelligence
NorthWestern Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
28
Market data through 11 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 13:20 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
NWE currently carries mixed options pressure with a 28/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
4.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
-
Balanced tape
Trend fit
80
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+4.9%
RS -3.2
Expected move
4.7%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
-
Reference IV
0.28
Max pain
70.00
Underlying
72.09
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
94
Research Brief
NWE has a mixed chain read with 28/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 68.70–75.48; The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00.
Priced range68.70–75.48
Call concentration80.00
Put concentration70.00
Max pain reference70.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 68.70 to 75.48. Max pain at 70.00 sits inside that range, 2.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
68.7072.09 ± 3.3975.48
Confirmation level
A close beyond 75.48 or below 68.70 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 28/100
Pressure is 9/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure9 × 42%
+3.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation0 × 22%
+0.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement80 × 26%
+20.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility39 × 10%
+3.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
45.00-37.6%
0
0
50.00-30.6%
0
0
55.00-23.7%
0
0
60.00-16.8%
0
1
65.00-9.8%
0
7
70.00-2.9%
0
0
75.004.0%
2
0
80.0011.0%
3
0
85.0017.9%
0
0
90.0024.8%
0
0
95.0031.8%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$24,833Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak75.00+$18,438
Negative peak65.00-$797
Nearest balance65.59Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
45.00-37.6%
-$35
50.00-30.6%
-$5
55.00-23.7%
+$0
60.00-16.8%
-$76
65.00-9.8%
-$797
70.00-2.9%
+$5,975
75.004.0%
+$18,438
80.0011.0%
+$1,184
85.0017.9%
+$104
90.0024.8%
+$29
95.0031.8%
+$10
100.0038.7%
+$6
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.28
21 Aug
10d
0.22
18 Sep
38d
0.16
18 Dec
129d
0.22
19 Mar
220d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
60
65
70
75
80
85
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 11 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 94 / 94
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Likely noise
Visible options activity is too thin or mixed to support a strong intent classification.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $0 of estimated gross traded notional, no dominant cluster, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+9
1W price+4.9%
Call premium0%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 0% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
80/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
No high-conviction option cluster is visible in this snapshot.
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
9 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 9 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close72.09
1W+4.9%
RS-3.2
Fair value+34.1%
Options pressure9
Speculation0
Volatility39
Trend fit80
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:42
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 5.8%
30 Jul 10:39
Bearish
Pressure -91
Move 7.6%
31 Jul 10:24
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.5%
2 Aug 03:51
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.0%
4 Aug 10:16
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 6.0%
5 Aug 10:51
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 6.0%
6 Aug 11:01
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.9%
7 Aug 12:43
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 4.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.28
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.16
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.03
Skew-0.13
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.27
Skew0.08
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.08
Put IV0.24
Skew0.16
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.27
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNWE260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume-
OI53
IV0.19
ContractNWE260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI30
IV0.15
ContractNWE260918C00070000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI29
IV0.19
ContractNWE260918P00065000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI12
IV0.12
ContractNWE261218C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike75.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.03
ContractNWE261218C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI9
IV0.08
ContractNWE260918P00070000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.27
ContractNWE260821P00070000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.03
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.