Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
MESO options intelligence
Mesoblast Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
52
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 06:34 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
MESO currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 32.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
32.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.04
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+12.5%
RS -13.5
Expected move
32.5%
Put-call volume
0.04
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
1.55
Max pain
16.00
Underlying
15.94
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
196
Research Brief
MESO has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 10.76–21.12; The largest call open-interest concentration is 18.00; the largest put concentration is 14.00. The most active strike by current volume is 18.00.
Priced range10.76–21.12
Call concentration18.00
Put concentration14.00
Max pain reference16.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 10.76 to 21.12. Max pain at 16.00 sits inside that range, 0.4% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
10.7615.94 ± 5.1821.12
Confirmation level
A close beyond 21.12 or below 10.76 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 52/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation3 × 22%
+0.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 18.00; the largest put concentration is 14.00. The most active strike by current volume is 18.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
8.00-49.8%
0
0
9.00-43.5%
0
0
10.00-37.3%
0
0
11.00-31.0%
0
8
12.00-24.7%
25
165
13.00-18.4%
0
1386
14.00-12.2%
1
1151
15.00-5.9%
300
364
16.000.4%
240
0
17.006.6%
414
68
18.0012.9%
1448
0
19.0019.2%
972
10
20.0025.5%
627
0
21.0031.7%
5
0
22.0038.0%
0
0
23.0044.3%
0
0
24.0050.6%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$292,113Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak17.00+$140,040
Negative peak14.00-$32,594
Nearest balance16.01Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
3.00-81.2%
+$38
5.00-68.6%
-$1
8.00-49.8%
+$6,676
10.00-37.3%
+$3,560
12.00-24.7%
+$2,846
13.00-18.4%
-$951
14.00-12.2%
-$32,594
15.00-5.9%
-$2,003
16.000.4%
-$1,906
17.006.6%
+$140,040
18.0012.9%
+$58,821
19.0019.2%
+$17,236
20.0025.5%
+$29,573
21.0031.7%
+$44
22.0038.0%
+$17,930
25.0056.8%
+$20,703
27.0069.4%
+$17,443
30.0088.2%
+$6,577
35.00119.6%
+$8,081
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.55
21 Aug
9d
0.71
18 Sep
37d
0.91
16 Oct
65d
0.91
15 Jan
156d
0.86
21 Jan
527d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 196 / 196
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $888,680 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+12.5%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 611 contracts traded, $487,015 estimated gross traded notional, and 55% of visible notional.
$487,015
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 824 contracts traded, $390,275 estimated gross traded notional, and 44% of visible notional.
$390,275
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 191 contracts traded, $8,845 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$8,845
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 63 contracts traded, $2,048 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$2,048
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $497 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$497
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
9 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 9 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close15.94
1W+12.5%
RS-13.5
Fair value+47.9%
Options pressure100
Speculation3
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:02
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 28.7%
30 Jul 10:50
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 18.9%
31 Jul 05:06
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 26.5%
2 Aug 10:51
Volatility
Pressure 80
Move 23.6%
4 Aug 10:24
Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 36.1%
5 Aug 10:55
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 28.2%
6 Aug 11:04
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 21.5%
8 Aug 04:29
Volatility
Pressure 88
Move 28.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 25
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 165
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 63 · OI 1386
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 300
Puts · V 0 · OI 1151
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV1.55
Put-call0.33
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.71
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.91
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts40
Avg IV0.91
Put-call-
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts26
Avg IV0.86
Put-call0.00
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.85
Put IV2.75
Skew1.89
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.22
Put IV0.19
Skew-1.03
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.46
Put IV1.29
Skew-0.17
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.16
Put IV1.03
Skew-0.13
21 Jan 2028Put IV premium
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.95
Skew0.21
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMESO280121C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike15.00
Volume362
OI2108
IV0.79
ContractMESO280121C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike30.00
Volume268
OI1122
IV0.84
ContractMESO280121C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike25.00
Volume245
OI3640
IV0.87
ContractMESO280121C00022000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike22.00
Volume165
OI3202
IV0.89
ContractMESO280121C00027000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike27.00
Volume146
OI2414
IV0.85
ContractMESO260821C00018000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume141
OI1448
IV0.85
ContractMESO280121C00008000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike8.00
Volume99
OI2467
IV0.80
ContractMESO280121C00012000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike12.00
Volume77
OI685
IV0.84
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.