Ticker Options Intelligence

CMBT options intelligence

CMB.TECH NV options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 50 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 13:40 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CMBT currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 7.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.08

Call-side skew

Trend fit 9

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.8%

RS 25.8

Expected move 7.4%
Put-call volume 0.08
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.67
Max pain 15.00
Underlying 16.29
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 110

Research Brief

CMBT has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 15.09–17.49; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50.

Priced range15.09–17.49
Call concentration17.50
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference15.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 15.09 to 17.49. Max pain at 15.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
15.0916.29 ± 1.2017.49
Confirmation level

A close beyond 17.49 or below 15.09 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 50/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 93/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure93 × 42%
+39.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation4 × 22%
+0.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement9 × 26%
+2.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility77 × 10%
+7.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score50.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-84.7%
0
0
5.00-69.3%
1
110
7.50-54.0%
4
431
10.00-38.6%
7
1203
12.50-23.3%
259
824
15.00-7.9%
1635
34
17.507.4%
2155
0
20.0022.8%
135
0
22.5038.1%
0
0
25.0053.5%
0
0
30.0084.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 84% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$434,189Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak17.50+$306,154
Negative peak10.00-$3,357
Nearest balance10.32Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-84.7%
+$0
5.00-69.3%
-$4
7.50-54.0%
-$619
10.00-38.6%
-$3,357
12.50-23.3%
+$22,745
15.00-7.9%
+$72,057
17.507.4%
+$306,154
20.0022.8%
+$27,755
22.5038.1%
+$9,629
25.0053.5%
-$181
30.0084.2%
+$9
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.70× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.67 21 Aug 9d
0.42 18 Sep 37d
0.40 20 Nov 100d
0.46 15 Jan 156d
0.40 19 Feb 191d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

15
18
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
110 / 110
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

88/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $42,712 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+93
1W price+0.8%
Call premium77%
Put premium23%
Notional split C 77% / P 23% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 9/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 27 Aug Matched earnings event is 13 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 49 contracts traded, $16,680 estimated gross traded notional, and 39% of visible notional.
$16,680
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 500 contracts traded, $7,500 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$7,500
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 11 contracts traded, $4,290 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$4,290
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $3,525 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$3,525
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $2,995 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$2,995

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

87

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank90th
Volume/OI rank80th
IV rank90th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close16.29
1W+0.8%
RS25.8
Fair value+34.5%
Options pressure93
Speculation4
Volatility77
Trend fit9

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 7.4% muted
30d avg 9.8% · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.67 elevated
30d avg 0.51 · 10 sessions 90th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.08 muted
30d avg 0.44 · 10 sessions 10th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 elevated
30d avg 0.01 · 10 sessions 80th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:41 Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 9.2%
30 Jul 10:38 Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 9.4%
31 Jul 10:24 Volatility
Pressure 87
Move 10.3%
31 Jul 13:53 Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 11.1%
3 Aug 13:19 Volatility
Pressure 76
Move 10.8%
4 Aug 11:04 Bullish
Pressure 80
Move 10.5%
4 Aug 17:48 Mixed
Pressure -16
Move 8.7%
6 Aug 10:21 Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 9.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 110
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 431
Strike12.50
Calls · V 31 · OI 259
Puts · V 0 · OI 1203
Strike15.00
Calls · V 18 · OI 1635
Puts · V 0 · OI 824
Strike17.50
Calls · V 500 · OI 2155
Puts · V 10 · OI 34
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 135
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.67
Put-call0.02
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.39
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.06
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.46
Put-call1.89
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.38
Skew-0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.05
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.47
Skew0.07
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.64
Skew0.21
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.52
Skew0.20

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCMBT260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume500
OI2155
IV0.40
ContractCMBT260918C00017500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume42
OI306
IV0.41
ContractCMBT260821C00012500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume31
OI259
IV1.26
ContractCMBT260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume18
OI1635
IV0.35
ContractCMBT270115P00020000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume11
OI25
IV0.44
ContractCMBT261120C00017500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike17.50
Volume10
OI1525
IV0.37
ContractCMBT260918P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume10
OI265
IV0.45
ContractCMBT260821P00017500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume10
OI34
IV0.57

Evidence context