Pattern Intelligence · TLV

ELCRE quant read

The nearest historical setups point to downside risk, and the live chart evidence supports that caution.

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Next week 33.1%

Likely lower · avg analogue -1.23%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 41.8%

Unclear · avg analogue -13.55%

Low conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence challenges the read

5 of the core evidence blocks are acting as headwinds.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

Downside risk is confirmed while price remains below trend and relative strength keeps lagging.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 214,600.00
Trend Line: 458,320.00
Fair value: 433,127.84

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: downside risk Downside risk is confirmed while price remains below trend and relative strength keeps lagging.

Supportive

No core support block is clearly positive.

Headwinds

Price vs Trend Line: -53.18%
Price vs Fair Value: -50.45%
Relative Strength: -0.59
Market Activity: -0.35
Price Cycle: -0.50

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -2.73%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue -0.21%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +5.72%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line -53.18%

Price is below trend, which keeps pressure on the setup.

Price vs Fair Value -50.45%

Price is trading below Fair Value, which can create recovery potential if pressure improves.

Market Dynamics -0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength -0.59

The stock is lagging relative strength.

Market Activity -0.35

This component is a drag.

Price Cycle -0.50

This component is a drag.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
069620 KSC	2026-06-05	0.5352	higher	+9.41%
3659 JPX	2026-06-05	0.5249	higher	+3.18%
600053 SHH	2026-06-05	0.519	lower	-2.29%
9416 JPX	2026-06-05	0.515	lower	-0.02%
WEST3 SAO	2026-06-05	0.51	higher	+12.81%
TMCO34 SAO	2026-06-05	0.507	higher	+0.02%
006280 KSC	2026-06-05	0.506	lower	-3.23%
KEPL3 SAO	2026-06-05	0.5047	higher	+3.48%
600965 SHH	2026-06-05	0.4958	lower	-6.98%
3649 JPX	2026-06-05	0.4877	lower	-0.41%
170900 KSC	2026-06-05	0.4865	lower	-8.08%
352820 KSC	2026-06-05	0.4853	lower	-2.15%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure 1.17106
Price Cycle -1.10656
Price vs Fair Value -1.08863
Price vs Trend Line -0.97816

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.