Pattern Intelligence · IST

AGHOL quant read

The nearest historical setups point to a better-than-even chance of higher prices, and the live chart evidence supports it.

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Next week 73.3%

Likely higher · avg analogue +1.66%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 54.0%

Unclear · avg analogue +2.17%

Low conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence supports the read

3 of the core evidence blocks are supportive.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

Confirmation is present while price holds above trend and relative strength remains firm.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 34.20
Trend Line: 32.47
Fair value: 29.48

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: upside follow-through Confirmation is present while price holds above trend and relative strength remains firm.

Supportive

Price vs Trend Line: +5.34%
Price vs Fair Value: +16.02%
Price Cycle: +0.16

Headwinds

No core headwind block is clearly negative.

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -4.37%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue +1.83%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +6.03%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line +5.34%

Price is comfortably above its medium-term trend.

Price vs Fair Value +16.02%

Price is stretched above the current Fair Value estimate.

Market Dynamics -0.00

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength -0.01

Relative strength is not giving a clear edge.

Market Activity -0.04

This component is neutral.

Price Cycle +0.16

This component is supportive.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
BX NYSE	2024-02-23	0.7476	higher	+2.20%
MCO NYSE	2025-02-07	0.7414	lower	-8.13%
3116 JPX	2026-02-13	0.7268	lower	-16.76%
5262 JPX	2024-02-23	0.71	lower	-0.88%
EMA TOR	2022-01-21	0.7087	lower	-0.53%
BBSE3 SAO	2025-01-24	0.7074	higher	+3.94%
6457 JPX	2026-01-16	0.7063	lower	-4.95%
SREN EBS	2025-10-10	0.7063	lower	-2.61%
2429 JPX	2026-02-20	0.7049	lower	-5.31%
BANF NASDAQ	2025-01-10	0.7047	higher	+9.19%
VER VIE	2022-03-04	0.7029	higher	+8.65%
4526 JPX	2026-01-30	0.7003	lower	-0.16%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure -3.3128
Next-week expectancy 0.61744
Trend Signal 0.57698
Close location 0.3388

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.