Pattern Intelligence · PAR

PRC quant read

The pattern is not clean enough for a strong directional call. The chart needs confirmation.

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Next week 46.7%

Unclear · avg analogue -1.97%

Low conviction

Next 4 weeks 44.5%

Unclear · avg analogue -0.28%

Low conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence supports the read

3 of the core evidence blocks are supportive.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 3.81
Trend Line: 2.90
Fair value: 4.07

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: wait for confirmation A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Supportive

Price vs Trend Line: +31.21%
Relative Strength: +0.16
Market Activity: +0.86

Headwinds

Price Cycle: -0.06

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -6.52%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue -1.05%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +7.90%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line +31.21%

Price is comfortably above its medium-term trend.

Price vs Fair Value -6.43%

Price is close to Fair Value.

Market Dynamics +0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength +0.16

The stock is showing relative leadership.

Market Activity +0.86

This component is supportive.

Price Cycle -0.06

This component is a drag.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
0097 HKG	2024-02-09	0.8604	higher	+9.40%
3669 HKG	2023-12-29	0.8476	lower	-25.26%
CPNREIT SET	2023-08-18	0.8353	lower	-0.11%
ALGRO PAR	2025-04-04	0.8343	lower	-6.78%
0178 HKG	2024-02-02	0.8334	higher	+14.29%
6537 JPX	2022-06-17	0.833	lower	-4.59%
SCGD SET	2025-07-04	0.8328	higher	+26.06%
9923 HKG	2024-02-09	0.8327	lower	-4.78%
9470 JPX	2022-04-29	0.8321	lower	-6.78%
ASCN EBS	2022-10-07	0.8296	higher	+9.35%
2281 SAU	2025-12-05	0.8237	lower	-4.38%
LEADD HEL	2022-08-19	0.8224	lower	-41.88%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure -0.96958
Market Activity -0.78878
Price Cycle -0.57611
Price vs Fair Value -0.5696

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.