Pattern Intelligence · ASX

TER quant read

The nearest historical setups point to downside risk, and the live chart evidence supports that caution.

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Next week 32.6%

Unclear · avg analogue +0.14%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 25.5%

Likely lower · avg analogue -6.21%

High conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence challenges the read

2 of the core evidence blocks are acting as headwinds.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

Downside risk is confirmed while price remains below trend and relative strength keeps lagging.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 0.07
Trend Line: 0.08
Fair value: 0.16

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: downside risk Downside risk is confirmed while price remains below trend and relative strength keeps lagging.

Supportive

No core support block is clearly positive.

Headwinds

Price vs Fair Value: -52.60%
Price Cycle: -0.53

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -9.83%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue -3.27%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +2.76%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line -1.32%

Price is close to trend, so direction still needs confirmation.

Price vs Fair Value -52.60%

Price is trading below Fair Value, which can create recovery potential if pressure improves.

Market Dynamics +0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength -0.01

Relative strength is not giving a clear edge.

Market Activity +0.02

This component is neutral.

Price Cycle -0.53

This component is a drag.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
603882 SHH	2026-05-29	0.6549	lower	-13.44%
GNCL TLV	2026-05-29	0.6148	lower	-8.55%
0928 HKG	2026-06-05	0.5894	higher	+20.69%
NWM ASX	2026-06-05	0.5806	lower	-10.00%
DII-B TOR	2026-05-29	0.5789	flat	0.00%
EV1 ASX	2026-06-05	0.5771	higher	+37.50%
TCSA3 SAO	2026-06-05	0.5649	lower	-22.94%
EMN ASX	2026-06-05	0.5531	lower	-20.91%
AB PAR	2026-05-29	0.5501	lower	-9.34%
CEA GER	2026-06-05	0.5488	higher	+2.88%
DII-B TOR	2026-06-05	0.5433	higher	+7.59%
ALM STO	2026-05-29	0.5419	lower	-5.45%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure 1.17234
Quality context 0.99
Growth context 0.93
Momentum context 0.88

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.