Unclear · avg analogue -0.25%
Low convictionPattern Intelligence · ASX
MTO quant read
The nearest historical setups lean lower, but the live chart evidence is not confirming that read yet.
Likely lower · avg analogue -1.07%
Moderate conviction5 of the core evidence blocks are supportive.
Not confirmed yet; needs price losing trend support and relative strength breaking down before treating the downside read as live.
Current weekly tape
Price, trend line, and fair value
Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.
- Close
- 3.07
- Trend Line
- 2.46
- Fair value
- 2.10
Hover chart for weekly context.
Signal stack
What changed underneath price?
Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.
Hover for standardized signal values.
Historical memory
Nearest 4-week analogue returns
Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.
Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.
Outcome frame
Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues
This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.
What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.
The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.
What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.
Evidence stack
Why the model sees this setup
These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.
Price is comfortably above its medium-term trend.
Price is stretched above the current Fair Value estimate.
Market Dynamics are neutral.
The stock is showing relative leadership.
This component is supportive.
This component is supportive.
Historical rhymes
Closest resolved setups
The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.
| Ticker | Week | Similarity | Outcome | 4W return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERD NZE |
2026-06-12 | 0.741 | lower | -2.83% |
| VGL NZE |
2026-06-12 | 0.693 | higher | +8.14% |
| PAX STO |
2026-06-12 | 0.6846 | lower | -4.71% |
| MCOV-B STO |
2026-06-12 | 0.6804 | higher | +7.48% |
| 9595 SAU |
2026-06-12 | 0.6707 | lower | -13.41% |
| 2270 SAU |
2026-06-12 | 0.6701 | lower | -0.90% |
| 2084 SAU |
2026-06-12 | 0.6617 | lower | -5.92% |
| 4160 SAU |
2026-06-12 | 0.6607 | higher | +7.61% |
| 4070 SAU |
2026-06-12 | 0.65 | higher | +7.26% |
| WDCN3 SAO |
2026-06-12 | 0.6491 | lower | -5.20% |
| 4008 SAU |
2026-06-12 | 0.6482 | lower | -3.02% |
| 4031 SAU |
2026-06-12 | 0.6461 | lower | -5.32% |
Distinctive drivers
What made this setup unusual
These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.
- Volume pressure -0.86566
- Momentum context 0.73265
- Sector structure 0.59877
- Close location -0.53483
This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.