Unclear · avg analogue -0.01%
Moderate convictionPattern Intelligence · SHZ
300592 quant read
The pattern is not clean enough for a strong directional call. The chart needs confirmation.
Unclear · avg analogue +2.23%
Low conviction5 of the core evidence blocks are supportive.
A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.
Current weekly tape
Price, trend line, and fair value
Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.
- Close
- 18.74
- Trend Line
- 13.23
- Fair value
- 13.43
Signal stack
What changed underneath price?
Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.
Historical memory
Nearest 4-week analogue returns
Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.
Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues
This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.
What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.
The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.
What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.
Why the model sees this setup
These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.
Price is comfortably above its medium-term trend.
Price is stretched above the current Fair Value estimate.
Market Dynamics are neutral.
The stock is showing relative leadership.
This component is supportive.
This component is supportive.
Closest resolved setups
The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.
| Ticker | Week | Similarity | Outcome | 4W return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 002982 SHZ |
2025-04-18 | 0.5892 | lower | -3.00% |
| 135A JPX |
2025-10-31 | 0.5734 | higher | +31.11% |
| 1571 HKG |
2024-09-06 | 0.5718 | higher | +17.74% |
| 688665 SHH |
2025-08-01 | 0.5688 | higher | +8.13% |
| 3661 JPX |
2024-11-15 | 0.5685 | higher | +7.48% |
| 000831 SHZ |
2025-04-25 | 0.5656 | higher | +7.07% |
| 600195 SHH |
2026-01-02 | 0.5591 | higher | +3.81% |
| COIN NASDAQ |
2023-12-08 | 0.5579 | higher | +5.02% |
| SYNT STO |
2021-02-26 | 0.557 | lower | -3.18% |
| 688358 SHH |
2025-08-01 | 0.5546 | lower | -5.46% |
| 7919 JPX |
2023-08-18 | 0.5544 | higher | +11.03% |
| PRIM JKT |
2026-01-30 | 0.5496 | lower | -1.20% |
What made this setup unusual
These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.
- Sector structure -5.05664
- Volume pressure 0.82048
- Market Activity 0.61861
- Trend Signal 0.57698