Pattern Intelligence · STO

GPX quant read

The nearest historical setups point to downside risk, and the live chart evidence supports that caution.

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Next week 29.7%

Likely lower · avg analogue -1.67%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 38.8%

Likely lower · avg analogue -2.74%

Moderate conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence challenges the read

5 of the core evidence blocks are acting as headwinds.

Quant agreement Clean alignment

Downside risk is confirmed while price remains below trend and relative strength keeps lagging.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 6.00
Trend Line: 7.18
Fair value: 9.08

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: downside risk Downside risk is confirmed while price remains below trend and relative strength keeps lagging.

Supportive

No core support block is clearly positive.

Headwinds

Price vs Trend Line: -16.41%
Price vs Fair Value: -33.90%
Relative Strength: -0.23
Market Activity: -0.35
Price Cycle: -0.34

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -9.77%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue -2.76%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +4.85%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line -16.41%

Price is below trend, which keeps pressure on the setup.

Price vs Fair Value -33.90%

Price is trading below Fair Value, which can create recovery potential if pressure improves.

Market Dynamics -0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength -0.23

The stock is lagging relative strength.

Market Activity -0.35

This component is a drag.

Price Cycle -0.34

This component is a drag.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
MNTC STO	2024-03-08	0.7171	lower	-7.22%
MSKY JKT	2024-11-08	0.6537	lower	-8.86%
HPOW LSE	2025-08-22	0.6464	higher	+2.58%
MAGI STO	2025-03-07	0.6415	lower	-14.35%
688005 SHH	2025-01-24	0.6353	higher	+16.97%
TPIS3 SAO	2022-12-09	0.6307	lower	-18.80%
AAU LSE	2024-06-28	0.6297	lower	-4.26%
3835 JPX	2022-10-14	0.6248	higher	+8.03%
ENRO STO	2023-01-13	0.6247	lower	-11.73%
688021 SHH	2025-01-24	0.6233	higher	+9.38%
603217 SHH	2025-01-10	0.6214	higher	+4.85%
ROKU NASDAQ	2024-11-29	0.6188	higher	+11.59%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure -1.76596
Trend Signal -0.42302
Volume pressure -0.42058
Price Cycle -0.35901

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.