+1.2 points over the latest measured period.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 13?
Crypto expectations are rising at 99.8% on a high-quality market. Crypto expectation is steady at 99.8%. 24h move +1.2 pts. 7d move +2.8 pts. Data quality 54/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.
SignalHigh ConvictionCurrent classification
Signal score46/100Priority across the tape
Market quality54/100Confidence in the read
Volume92.8KParticipation to date
Liquidity29.7KAvailable market depth
Observed range2.9 pts327 snapshots
Market angles
The current setup
Position between the observed low and high.
Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.
Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.
Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.
Time until the listed market resolution deadline.
Probability history
Probability through time
Implied probability across the selected period.
Period low 97.1%
Period high 99.9%
Direction Rising
Spread 0.0 pts
Repricing episodes
The moves that changed the market
Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.
Probability journey
How the market reached today’s price
Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.
Market profile
Signal strength versus theme peers
Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Crypto markets.
Current signal
Crypto expectation is steady at 99.8%. 24h move +1.2 pts. 7d move +2.8 pts. Data quality 54/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.
Participation
Where participation changed
Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.
Volume92.8KCumulative participation
Liquidity29.7KCurrent available depth
Liquidity / volume32.0%Current depth ratio
Largest volume burst+83026Between recorded observations
Volume accumulation
Largest participation bursts
Liquidity checkpoints
How available depth changed
Market structure
Depth, open interest and spread
Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.
Crypto context
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Compare related probabilities
Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.
Important context
A probability is a market price, not a promise.
Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.