Financial Services ยท Credit Services ยท Completed evidence
UPST relative to OPRT
Upstart Holdingsย Inc is the relatively depressed leg. Oportun Financial Corp is the relatively extended leg.
Specific pair strategy
What is the play in UPST / OPRT?
This is a relative trade. The result depends on which security performs better, not on whether the whole market rises or falls.
Convergence condition active
Long UPST / short OPRT
Treat the two legs as one relative trade. The idea works when UPST outperforms OPRT, not simply when UPST rises or OPRT falls.
This is the relatively depressed leg. The case needs it to recover or at least hold up better than the other leg.
This is the relatively extended leg. The case needs it to lag or weaken relative to the long leg.
A favourable relative move means UPST rises more than OPRT, falls less than OPRT, or rises while OPRT falls. If OPRT outperforms UPST, the pair moves against the case.
The research trigger is active because the completed daily gap is narrowing while UPST improves relative to OPRT. For a fresh position, require the next completed daily update to continue that move toward normal.
Maintain the case only while UPST continues to gain on OPRT, relationship quality remains usable and the wider evidence does not reverse.
The case fails if the completed gap widens again while UPST weakens relative to OPRT, or if the publication moves into a relationship-break state.
Look for continued repair in the weaker leg and a turn lower in the absolute spread before treating convergence as established.
Evidence now
- UPST Market Dynamics is improving.
What would invalidate it?
A renewed deterioration in the weaker leg would turn repair into continued divergence.
Possible setup paths
How the relative-value idea could be expressed
These are research structures, not recommendations or position-size instructions. The current course above determines whether any structure is ready to study now.
Long UPST / short OPRT
Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for UPST to outperform OPRT; UPST can rise faster, fall less, or rise while OPRT falls. The pair loses ground when OPRT outperforms UPST.
When it becomes relevantThis is the clearest expression to study now because both the weekly evidence and completed daily timing agree. Look for UPST to keep gaining relative to OPRT while relationship quality and evidence alignment hold.Principal riskRequires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.Study UPST alone if its own evidence confirms
This simpler expression focuses on recovery in UPST. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and UPST-specific news.
When it becomes relevantA stronger case needs improving UPST price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.Principal riskCarries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.Study OPRT alone if its support continues to weaken
This expression focuses on weakness in OPRT. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.
When it becomes relevantWeakening in OPRT must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.Principal riskShort selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.Any practical expression needs an independent review of suitability, portfolio risk, liquidity, current news and earnings, borrow availability and cost, transaction costs and tax.
Relationship gap ยท technical name: standardised residual
How far apart are they compared with normal?
Zero is the pair's historical centre. The outer guides show increasingly unusual departures from it.
This is the relationship gap after allowing for the pair's usual co-movement. Zero is its historical centre; the distance is measured in standard deviations, so different pairs can be compared on the same scale.
The latest gap is 1.79 standard deviations from normal. UPST is the relatively depressed leg and OPRT is the relatively extended leg. That is unusual separation, not proof that either security is cheap or expensive.
A move toward zero means convergence. A move farther from zero means the separation is extending and raises the risk that the old relationship is changing.
Common-base price paths
Which security created the gap?
Both paths begin at 100 so their relative movement is visible without mixing different share prices.
Both securities are reset to 100 at the first date. This removes the distraction of different share prices and shows how their completed weekly price paths diverged. It is not a valuation chart.
Since the common starting point, OPRT is +3.2% and UPST is -8.0%. The chart shows which price path contributed to the separation; the fitted relationship measure is more precise than the raw visual distance.
For convergence, watch for UPST to catch up, OPRT to lose ground, or both. The relationship can close even if both securities rise or both fall.
OPRTUPST
Completed daily timing
Is the gap closing yet?
The daily relationship adds timing context inside the slower weekly case. It does not replace the weekly validity checks.
This applies the same relationship to completed daily bars. It is the timing layer inside the weekly case, not a separate trading signal.
Gap narrowing: The completed daily gap is narrowing. That supports the weekly convergence case, although it still needs to persist.
Further movement toward zero would strengthen confirmation; a turn away from zero would weaken it.
UPST ยท Upstart Holdingsย Inc
22/100 evidence score- Market Dynamics
- 0.417 ยท change 0.131
- Trend
- Negative
- Stage
- Stage 4 ยท Declining
- Smart Money
- Neutral
- News sentiment
- Neutral
- Options
- Mixed
OPRT ยท Oportun Financial Corp
90/100 evidence score- Market Dynamics
- 1.136 ยท change 0.118
- Trend
- Positive
- Stage
- Stage 2 ยท Advancing
- Smart Money
- Neutral
- Short interest
- Crowded
- Options
- Volatility
Relationship diagnostics
Why this pair is on the map
How closely completed weekly returns moved together across the measurement window.
How consistent the fitted relationship remained across earlier and later parts of the sample.
An observed mean-reversion clock, not a deadline or a forecast.
How often the residual crossed its historical centre; repeated crossings matter more than a single fit.
The latest residual's location inside its own completed history.
Stored price, volume and size context only. It does not include a live short locate or cost.
State history
What changed and when
Daily timing changed
Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-21.
Research state changed
Changed from Leader rollover to Early repair.
Daily timing changed
Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-20.
Daily timing changed
Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-08-19.
Daily timing changed
Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-17.
Relationship discovered
Published as Leader rollover after the completed 2026-08-14 observation.
Same-industry map