Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

PBR relative to PBR-A

Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR / Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

PBR is relatively depressed; PBR-A is relatively extended against their shared history.

PBR chart ↗PBR-A chart ↗More PBR pairs ↗

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 · Daily 8 Oct 2026 · 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation -0.04σHistorical percentile 44
Relationship quality 83/100
Evidence alignment 53/100
Stability 93/10019 centre crossings
Break risk 13/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap narrowing-0.19σ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

PBR / PBR-A gap -0.04σ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this edition’s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, PBR is extended relative to PBR-A; below zero, PBR is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0σ0.0σ2.0σ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this edition’s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, PBR is extended relative to PBR-A; below zero, PBR is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values · 156 observations
DatePBR / PBR-A gap
29 Sep 20231.43σ
6 Oct 20231.12σ
13 Oct 20231.01σ
20 Oct 20230.57σ
27 Oct 20231.09σ
3 Nov 20230.81σ
10 Nov 20230.56σ
17 Nov 20230.29σ
24 Nov 20230.00σ
1 Dec 2023-0.91σ
8 Dec 2023-0.13σ
15 Dec 2023-0.84σ
22 Dec 2023-0.94σ
29 Dec 2023-1.10σ
5 Jan 2024-1.31σ
12 Jan 2024-1.49σ
19 Jan 2024-1.44σ
26 Jan 2024-1.16σ
2 Feb 2024-1.87σ
9 Feb 2024-1.91σ
16 Feb 2024-2.04σ
23 Feb 2024-1.82σ
1 Mar 2024-2.07σ
8 Mar 2024-2.13σ
15 Mar 2024-2.79σ
22 Mar 2024-2.25σ
29 Mar 2024-2.19σ
5 Apr 2024-1.91σ
12 Apr 2024-1.50σ
19 Apr 2024-0.62σ
26 Apr 2024-0.82σ
3 May 2024-1.12σ
10 May 2024-0.54σ
17 May 2024-0.87σ
24 May 2024-0.92σ
31 May 2024-0.96σ
7 Jun 2024-0.83σ
14 Jun 2024-0.66σ
21 Jun 2024-0.99σ
28 Jun 2024-0.34σ
5 Jul 2024-0.06σ
12 Jul 20240.17σ
19 Jul 20240.71σ
26 Jul 20240.84σ
2 Aug 20241.06σ
9 Aug 20240.42σ
16 Aug 20240.29σ
23 Aug 2024-0.04σ
30 Aug 20240.91σ
6 Sep 20241.24σ
13 Sep 20241.39σ
20 Sep 20241.45σ
27 Sep 20241.29σ
4 Oct 20240.92σ
11 Oct 20241.55σ
18 Oct 20241.42σ
25 Oct 20241.13σ
1 Nov 20241.14σ
8 Nov 20240.53σ
15 Nov 20240.85σ
22 Nov 20241.13σ
29 Nov 20241.16σ
6 Dec 20240.49σ
13 Dec 20240.33σ
20 Dec 20240.22σ
27 Dec 20240.91σ
3 Jan 20251.34σ
10 Jan 20251.80σ
17 Jan 20252.03σ
24 Jan 20251.57σ
31 Jan 20251.11σ
7 Feb 20250.68σ
14 Feb 20250.51σ
21 Feb 20250.92σ
28 Feb 20250.87σ
7 Mar 20250.30σ
14 Mar 20250.17σ
21 Mar 20250.74σ
28 Mar 20251.10σ
4 Apr 20251.49σ
11 Apr 2025-0.19σ
18 Apr 20250.21σ
25 Apr 2025-0.12σ
2 May 2025-0.23σ
9 May 20250.23σ
16 May 2025-0.33σ
23 May 2025-0.11σ
30 May 2025-0.15σ
6 Jun 2025-0.32σ
13 Jun 20250.01σ
20 Jun 20250.64σ
27 Jun 20250.52σ
4 Jul 20250.86σ
11 Jul 20250.69σ
18 Jul 20250.31σ
25 Jul 20250.76σ
1 Aug 20250.80σ
8 Aug 20250.25σ
15 Aug 20250.46σ
22 Aug 20250.19σ
29 Aug 20250.15σ
5 Sep 20250.16σ
12 Sep 20250.17σ
19 Sep 20250.08σ
26 Sep 20250.11σ
3 Oct 2025-0.47σ
10 Oct 2025-0.46σ
17 Oct 2025-0.66σ
24 Oct 2025-0.76σ
31 Oct 2025-1.03σ
7 Nov 2025-0.63σ
14 Nov 2025-0.88σ
21 Nov 2025-0.88σ
28 Nov 2025-1.13σ
5 Dec 2025-1.01σ
12 Dec 2025-1.51σ
19 Dec 2025-1.17σ
26 Dec 2025-1.23σ
2 Jan 2026-1.25σ
9 Jan 2026-1.45σ
16 Jan 2026-0.91σ
23 Jan 2026-0.67σ
30 Jan 2026-1.01σ
6 Feb 2026-1.56σ
13 Feb 2026-0.74σ
20 Feb 2026-0.76σ
27 Feb 2026-0.63σ
6 Mar 2026-0.19σ
13 Mar 20260.38σ
20 Mar 20260.14σ
27 Mar 20260.05σ
3 Apr 2026-0.06σ
10 Apr 2026-0.23σ
17 Apr 2026-0.13σ
24 Apr 20260.08σ
1 May 20260.21σ
8 May 2026-0.68σ
15 May 20260.24σ
22 May 20260.93σ
29 May 20260.89σ
5 Jun 20260.97σ
12 Jun 20261.18σ
19 Jun 20260.98σ
26 Jun 20260.69σ
3 Jul 20260.70σ
10 Jul 20260.68σ
17 Jul 20261.09σ
24 Jul 20261.39σ
31 Jul 20261.40σ
7 Aug 20260.99σ
14 Aug 20260.74σ
21 Aug 20260.57σ
28 Aug 20260.20σ
4 Sep 2026-0.09σ
11 Sep 20260.11σ
18 Sep 2026-0.04σ
Price paths · first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

PBR 175.32PBR-A 176.26
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 100.0125.0150.0175.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values · 156 observations
DatePBRPBR-A
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202394.0094.82
13 Oct 2023103.00103.72
20 Oct 2023108.14109.63
27 Oct 2023102.27102.85
3 Nov 2023104.60105.69
10 Nov 2023101.60103.28
17 Nov 2023107.01109.12
24 Nov 2023104.10106.90
1 Dec 2023103.28108.01
8 Dec 2023101.04104.15
15 Dec 2023101.52106.08
22 Dec 2023107.16111.95
29 Dec 2023108.45113.59
5 Jan 2024112.32117.97
12 Jan 2024110.96117.01
19 Jan 2024106.88112.77
26 Jan 2024115.78121.09
2 Feb 2024115.51122.51
9 Feb 2024116.73123.85
16 Feb 2024120.19127.71
23 Feb 2024117.88124.81
1 Mar 2024113.27120.72
8 Mar 2024100.36107.64
15 Mar 202498.74107.34
22 Mar 202499.75107.27
29 Mar 2024103.28110.76
5 Apr 2024105.19112.10
12 Apr 2024106.75112.77
19 Apr 2024111.84115.89
26 Apr 2024117.24121.73
3 May 2024115.32120.53
10 May 2024119.89123.69
17 May 2024105.43110.06
24 May 2024104.02108.76
31 May 2024109.15113.99
7 Jun 2024102.06106.60
14 Jun 202498.02102.22
21 Jun 2024101.62106.50
28 Jun 2024104.51108.00
5 Jul 2024106.24109.11
12 Jul 2024108.83111.17
19 Jul 2024107.75108.95
26 Jul 2024104.36105.39
2 Aug 202498.0298.82
9 Aug 2024102.49104.44
16 Aug 2024109.34111.41
23 Aug 2024105.25108.11
30 Aug 2024111.32111.96
6 Sep 2024107.81107.87
13 Sep 2024106.20106.02
20 Sep 2024105.25104.98
27 Sep 2024106.57106.58
4 Oct 2024111.02111.64
11 Oct 2024107.74107.14
18 Oct 2024103.50103.37
25 Oct 2024100.79101.36
1 Nov 202495.8296.54
8 Nov 202499.99101.76
15 Nov 2024103.13104.17
22 Nov 2024108.91109.15
29 Nov 2024104.37104.73
6 Dec 2024101.30103.13
13 Dec 2024103.38105.49
20 Dec 202499.05101.47
27 Dec 202497.5498.64
3 Jan 2025100.71100.86
10 Jan 2025104.27103.33
17 Jan 2025106.13104.61
24 Jan 2025106.20105.64
31 Jan 2025109.92110.17
7 Feb 2025106.13107.43
14 Feb 2025110.77112.30
21 Feb 2025114.17114.69
28 Feb 2025103.27104.27
7 Mar 2025100.33102.56
14 Mar 2025103.88106.32
21 Mar 2025109.53110.59
28 Mar 2025111.23111.45
4 Apr 2025101.56101.37
11 Apr 202589.4292.74
18 Apr 202589.8892.49
25 Apr 202589.8093.01
2 May 202590.8294.22
9 May 202592.3194.82
16 May 202594.0397.59
23 May 202592.6295.77
30 May 202590.2793.52
6 Jun 202590.7194.28
13 Jun 2025101.77104.57
20 Jun 2025104.73106.16
27 Jun 202599.20101.02
4 Jul 2025104.65105.63
11 Jul 2025102.73104.12
18 Jul 202596.2498.54
25 Jul 2025100.97102.26
1 Aug 2025101.69102.88
8 Aug 202597.1299.51
15 Aug 202596.7298.71
22 Aug 202598.80101.29
29 Aug 2025100.97103.50
5 Sep 202599.42101.97
12 Sep 2025102.84105.31
19 Sep 2025102.76105.40
26 Sep 2025106.51109.01
3 Oct 2025100.97104.77
10 Oct 202594.4598.27
17 Oct 202594.7898.99
24 Oct 202595.5999.98
31 Oct 202594.7899.71
7 Nov 2025104.71108.83
14 Nov 2025107.32111.99
21 Nov 2025103.90108.56
28 Nov 2025102.11107.29
5 Dec 202598.77103.68
12 Dec 202599.18105.13
19 Dec 202595.68100.89
26 Dec 202596.03101.37
2 Jan 202699.10104.50
9 Jan 202698.77104.59
16 Jan 2026105.51110.22
23 Jan 2026118.72122.86
30 Jan 2026127.54132.45
6 Feb 2026123.63129.96
13 Feb 2026126.29130.51
20 Feb 2026131.28135.49
27 Feb 2026138.26142.04
6 Mar 2026146.33148.68
13 Mar 2026154.39154.77
20 Mar 2026156.30157.35
27 Mar 2026172.68173.40
3 Apr 2026170.94172.11
10 Apr 2026178.83180.32
17 Apr 2026170.02171.46
24 Apr 2026174.55175.10
1 May 2026183.16182.90
8 May 2026170.03173.33
15 May 2026166.68167.02
22 May 2026166.43164.51
29 May 2026156.98155.69
5 Jun 2026149.62148.44
12 Jun 2026154.93152.85
19 Jun 2026141.19140.39
26 Jun 2026137.31137.49
3 Jul 2026135.79135.99
10 Jul 2026145.99145.82
17 Jul 2026151.47149.85
24 Jul 2026155.90153.13
31 Jul 2026161.13158.01
7 Aug 2026149.17147.97
14 Aug 2026148.51148.06
21 Aug 2026159.06158.66
28 Aug 2026156.19157.06
4 Sep 2026169.59170.92
11 Sep 2026178.70178.98
18 Sep 2026175.32176.26
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

PBR / PBR-A gap -0.19σ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, PBR is extended relative to PBR-A; below zero, PBR is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0σ0.0σ2.0σ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, PBR is extended relative to PBR-A; below zero, PBR is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values · 180 observations
DatePBR / PBR-A gap
22 Jan 2026-0.21σ
23 Jan 2026-1.14σ
26 Jan 2026-1.34σ
27 Jan 2026-1.30σ
28 Jan 2026-1.60σ
29 Jan 2026-1.82σ
30 Jan 2026-1.63σ
2 Feb 2026-1.92σ
3 Feb 2026-2.20σ
4 Feb 2026-1.98σ
5 Feb 2026-2.11σ
6 Feb 2026-2.41σ
9 Feb 2026-2.40σ
10 Feb 2026-1.87σ
11 Feb 2026-1.44σ
12 Feb 2026-1.48σ
13 Feb 2026-1.24σ
17 Feb 2026-1.30σ
18 Feb 2026-1.25σ
19 Feb 2026-0.66σ
20 Feb 2026-1.27σ
23 Feb 2026-1.17σ
24 Feb 2026-1.53σ
25 Feb 2026-1.24σ
26 Feb 2026-1.23σ
27 Feb 2026-1.10σ
2 Mar 2026-0.51σ
3 Mar 2026-0.63σ
4 Mar 2026-0.95σ
5 Mar 2026-1.02σ
6 Mar 2026-0.49σ
9 Mar 2026-0.84σ
10 Mar 2026-0.83σ
11 Mar 2026-0.76σ
12 Mar 20260.13σ
13 Mar 20260.32σ
16 Mar 2026-0.36σ
17 Mar 2026-0.46σ
18 Mar 2026-0.11σ
19 Mar 20260.01σ
20 Mar 2026-0.03σ
23 Mar 2026-0.29σ
24 Mar 2026-0.30σ
25 Mar 2026-0.78σ
26 Mar 20260.34σ
27 Mar 2026-0.16σ
30 Mar 2026-0.45σ
31 Mar 2026-0.04σ
1 Apr 2026-0.47σ
2 Apr 2026-0.33σ
6 Apr 2026-0.52σ
7 Apr 2026-0.48σ
8 Apr 2026-0.62σ
9 Apr 2026-0.78σ
10 Apr 2026-0.57σ
13 Apr 2026-0.28σ
14 Apr 2026-0.89σ
15 Apr 2026-0.70σ
16 Apr 2026-0.05σ
17 Apr 2026-0.42σ
20 Apr 2026-0.50σ
21 Apr 2026-0.66σ
22 Apr 2026-0.18σ
23 Apr 2026-0.53σ
24 Apr 2026-0.12σ
27 Apr 2026-0.32σ
28 Apr 2026-0.01σ
29 Apr 20260.15σ
30 Apr 2026-0.19σ
1 May 20260.06σ
4 May 2026-0.33σ
5 May 2026-0.47σ
6 May 2026-1.21σ
7 May 2026-1.41σ
8 May 2026-1.20σ
11 May 2026-0.79σ
12 May 2026-0.51σ
13 May 2026-0.19σ
14 May 2026-0.66σ
15 May 20260.11σ
18 May 20260.16σ
19 May 20260.55σ
20 May 20260.49σ
21 May 20260.49σ
22 May 20261.09σ
26 May 20261.28σ
27 May 20261.26σ
28 May 20260.96σ
29 May 20261.04σ
1 Jun 20260.98σ
2 Jun 20260.90σ
3 Jun 20261.06σ
4 Jun 20260.96σ
5 Jun 20261.17σ
8 Jun 20260.94σ
9 Jun 20261.21σ
10 Jun 20261.47σ
11 Jun 20260.85σ
12 Jun 20261.46σ
15 Jun 20261.49σ
16 Jun 20261.70σ
17 Jun 20261.21σ
18 Jun 20261.19σ
22 Jun 20260.97σ
23 Jun 20261.09σ
24 Jun 20261.16σ
25 Jun 20260.77σ
26 Jun 20260.78σ
29 Jun 20260.44σ
30 Jun 20260.42σ
1 Jul 20260.44σ
2 Jul 20260.80σ
6 Jul 20260.60σ
7 Jul 20260.82σ
8 Jul 20261.05σ
9 Jul 20260.67σ
10 Jul 20260.76σ
13 Jul 20261.44σ
14 Jul 20260.92σ
15 Jul 20260.87σ
16 Jul 20260.89σ
17 Jul 20261.34σ
20 Jul 20261.19σ
21 Jul 20261.49σ
22 Jul 20261.39σ
23 Jul 20261.32σ
24 Jul 20261.60σ
27 Jul 20261.27σ
28 Jul 20261.40σ
29 Jul 20261.68σ
30 Jul 20261.88σ
31 Jul 20261.61σ
3 Aug 20261.66σ
4 Aug 20261.81σ
5 Aug 20261.57σ
6 Aug 20261.28σ
7 Aug 20261.03σ
10 Aug 20260.75σ
11 Aug 20261.24σ
12 Aug 20260.98σ
13 Aug 20260.77σ
14 Aug 20261.00σ
17 Aug 20261.21σ
18 Aug 20260.81σ
19 Aug 20260.90σ
20 Aug 20261.00σ
21 Aug 20260.74σ
24 Aug 20260.64σ
25 Aug 20260.60σ
26 Aug 20260.43σ
27 Aug 20260.01σ
28 Aug 20260.06σ
31 Aug 20260.39σ
1 Sep 20260.55σ
2 Sep 2026-0.05σ
3 Sep 2026-0.33σ
4 Sep 2026-0.37σ
8 Sep 2026-0.35σ
9 Sep 2026-0.51σ
10 Sep 20260.09σ
11 Sep 2026-0.08σ
14 Sep 2026-0.09σ
15 Sep 20260.03σ
16 Sep 2026-0.20σ
17 Sep 2026-0.29σ
18 Sep 2026-0.29σ
21 Sep 2026-0.55σ
22 Sep 2026-0.88σ
23 Sep 2026-0.69σ
24 Sep 2026-0.81σ
25 Sep 2026-0.57σ
28 Sep 2026-0.14σ
29 Sep 2026-0.68σ
30 Sep 2026-0.71σ
1 Oct 2026-0.84σ
2 Oct 2026-0.46σ
5 Oct 2026-1.68σ
6 Oct 2026-1.01σ
7 Oct 2026-0.59σ
8 Oct 2026-0.19σ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowPBRDepressed legPBR-AExtended legReturn differencePBR less PBR-A
1 week2026-09-11 → 2026-09-18-1.9%-1.5%-0.4 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 → 2026-09-1810.2%11.1%-0.9 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 → 2026-09-1824.2%25.6%-1.4 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in PBR / PBR-A?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

No active pair setup

Keep PBR / PBR-A on routine watch

The two securities are not far enough apart, with enough confirmation, to support a useful convergence case.

01 · Relationship83/100

Stability 93/100 · break risk 13/100

02 · Separation0.04σ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 · Supporting evidence52/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 · Daily turnGap narrowing

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Keep the pair on the relationship map and wait for a meaningful, evidence-backed separation.

A future case would need an unusual separation, a dependable relationship and evidence favouring PBR over PBR-A.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

There is no reason to force a long or short leg while the relationship remains near normal.

A favourable relative move means PBR rises more than PBR-A, falls less than PBR-A, or rises while PBR-A falls. If PBR-A outperforms PBR, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

There is no current dislocation edge; transaction costs can dominate small spread movements.

There is no active case to invalidate because no relative-value position is currently supported.

Possible setup paths · How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long PBR / short PBR-A

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for PBR to outperform PBR-A; PBR can rise faster, fall less, or rise while PBR-A falls. The pair loses ground when PBR-A outperforms PBR.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from “No setup at present” to confirmed convergence. A new, unusual separation would need to develop while the historical relationship remains dependable.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study PBR alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in PBR. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and PBR-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving PBR price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study PBR-A alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in PBR-A. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in PBR-A must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities · fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

1.33σ from the centre

Example: PBR +5%, PBR-A +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 1.044, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioPBRPBR-ANew gap
Both rise5%2%1.33σPast centre
Both fall-2%-5%1.58σPast centre
Move in opposite directions3%-3%2.95σPast centre
The gap works against you-3%3%3.02σ
Current distance: 0.04σ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 1.044 × log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the model’s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • PBR Market Dynamics is improving.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

1.044×

A 1% move in PBR-A is associated with approximately 1.044% in PBR in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.98

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability93/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life8.1 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings19

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context97/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 2

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 2 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
50.0%
Median time among resolved cases
14.0 weeks
Largest further extension
2.90σ
State history · what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-07.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-05.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-30.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-28.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-17.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-11.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-10.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-03.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context