Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
45
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 4 September 2026
Hong Kong HK Financial Services Industry
Capital Markets
For the week ending 04 September 2026, Capital Markets declined 0.13% with 31 advancing, 26 declining, and 7 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Unresolved
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
45
technical evidence
Index699.30
1 week-0.13%
Breadth48%
Members64
Country
🇭🇰 Hong Kong · HK
Sector
Financial Services
Universe
country-listed
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Unresolved
7 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-0.7%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
75%
Negative regime, shorter trend repairing
Participation
48%
31 advancing, 26 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
42
Breadth
47
Persistence
33
Relative
36
Risk quality
89
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 38 percentage points.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
State age7 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width0.83%
Fast versus slow change2.01 pts
Above 33%
Below 33%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
75% agreement
Negative regime, shorter trend repairing
The long trend remains negative, but shorter-horizon repair is now visible.
13-week
1.1%
26-week
-4.4%
39-week
-1.7%
52-week
-5.4%
Constituent trend persistence
98% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
32%positive
Coherent positive11%
Coherent negative32%
Average horizon agreement78%
Positive horizon share39%
Weakening positives9
Repairing negatives18
63 constituents measured as of 4 Sep 2026. Median trend age is 12 weeks.
Custom stage map
98% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
59%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing10%6 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing21%13 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution11%7 securities
Stage 4 · Declining59%37 securities
Re-acceleration watch0
Transition watch10
Relative strength leaders24%
Fair Value repairs3
Measured as of 4 Sep 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
76/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Financial Services
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Financial Services. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index84.8
13-week trend85.2
4-week trend change0.52%
Weekly peer rank9 of 10
1 week
-1.2 pts
relative
4 weeks
-0.7 pts
relative
13 weeks
1.7 pts
relative
26 weeks
2.5 pts
relative
52 weeks
4.0 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Balanced
Participation quality
48%
advanced
- Advancing
- 31
- Declining
- 26
- Unchanged
- 7
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility12.9%
Drawdown from 52-week high-7.8%
Positive weeks, last 1346%
Current directional run1 week
Turnover versus 13-week norm158%
Breadth impulse3.6 pts
Cross-section
64 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -3.0%
Median 0.0%
Q3 2.7%
Average winner4.8%
Average loser-5.7%
Dispersion7.3 pts
Top-five upside share51%
Top-five capital share70%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 64 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 64 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.