- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
- Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
NCK
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Nick Scali Limited · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Latest close
17.11 AUD
7.7%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is 1.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 33.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 7.7%, after a 6.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 54/100.
Setup score
44
out of 100
Latest Close
17.11 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
7.7%
latest completed week
4W Return
6.3%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
23.2%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
50.0%
26 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
2.1x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
7.7%
Latest completed week; four-week move 6.3%.
Indicator stack
28/73
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
54/100
27 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is 1.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 33.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 7.7%, after a 6.3% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 2.1x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.1012-week average 0.04
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure7/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.10Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 6.3% over four weeks, 23.2% over 12 weeks, and -13.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year26
Trend breadth50.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.83Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change104.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-15.97Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change10.9%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025
Field coverage 85%
Model confidence 43%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength30/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
Value16/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 85; rank 1 is best.
Quality95/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 6; rank 1 is best.
Momentum12/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Growth8/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 93; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework62/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 25.4x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 3.0x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.7x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 6.0% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 63.5% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 20.5% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 20.4% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 15.8% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 5.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -28.7% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -1.8% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 4.2% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -0.3% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 3.9% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.4x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment54/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 27 relevant articles.
7 positive · 19 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-33.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher10 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+11.7%Week of 12 Jun.
Worst week-21.9%Week of 13 Feb.
Latest week+7.7%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains4
Flat weeks0
Modest losses10
Sharp losses6
Recent vol5.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/30Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.0% / -3.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank35 / 91
Group average3.9%
Trend breadth19.8%
Trend19.8%active weekly trend signals
MD71.4%positive activity pressure
RS25.3%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Specialty Retail
4-week rank7 / 16
Group average2.8%
Trend breadth6.3%
Trend6.2%active weekly trend signals
MD87.5%positive activity pressure
RS6.2%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape37/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 37/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis22/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 7/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.10; No reversal markers Factors39/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 67; Small Cap Core rank 83 SVQF62/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 99.5 of 257 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment54/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 27 relevant articles.
What Is Driving Attention to Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 17.11 AUD | 7.7% | 16.90 AUD | 15.73 AUD | 0.83 | -15.97 | 3.0M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 15.88 AUD | 5.5% | 17.11 AUD | 15.69 AUD | 0.64 | -19.80 | 2.0M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 15.05 AUD | -2.8% | 17.35 AUD | 15.65 AUD | 0.51 | -22.48 | 1.5M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 15.48 AUD | -3.9% | 17.63 AUD | 15.61 AUD | 0.50 | -20.74 | 2.6M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 16.10 AUD | 0.6% | 17.81 AUD | 15.56 AUD | 0.41 | -17.92 | 1.2M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 16.00 AUD | 0.9% | 17.98 AUD | 15.52 AUD | 0.30 | -18.96 | 197.3K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 15.86 AUD | -3.5% | 18.20 AUD | 15.46 AUD | 0.10 | -19.09 | 501.5K | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 16.43 AUD | 6.3% | 18.45 AUD | 15.41 AUD | -0.17 | -16.96 | 932.8K | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 15.46 AUD | 11.7% | 18.64 AUD | 15.36 AUD | -0.60 | -21.78 | 584.2K | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 13.84 AUD | -4.1% | 18.88 AUD | 15.31 AUD | -0.98 | -28.75 | 1.9M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 14.43 AUD | 7.8% | 19.21 AUD | 15.26 AUD | -1.23 | -26.97 | 605.7K | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 13.38 AUD | -3.7% | 19.56 AUD | 15.22 AUD | -1.37 | -32.01 | 1.9M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 13.89 AUD | -5.1% | 19.84 AUD | 15.18 AUD | -1.33 | -29.59 | 2.0M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 14.64 AUD | -1.7% | 20.10 AUD | 15.15 AUD | -1.27 | -27.09 | 1.7M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.