- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
GFTU
LSE
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Grafton Group plc · Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Latest close
1,043 GBP
8.0%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is 14.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 99.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 8.0%, after a 18.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 55/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.
Setup score
61
out of 100
Latest Close
1,043 GBP
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
8.0%
latest completed week
4W Return
18.7%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
29.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
17.3%
9 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.2x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- 1 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
8.0%
Latest completed week; four-week move 18.7%.
Indicator stack
10/100
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
55/100
17 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is 14.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 99.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 8.0%, after a 18.7% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.2x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.2812-week average 0.12
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure4/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership1/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.28Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers11 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 1 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 18.7% over four weeks, 29.0% over 12 weeks, and 18.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year9
Trend breadth17.3%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.02Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change6864.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership4.92Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change155.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 91%
Model confidence 72%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength80/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
Value91/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 10; rank 1 is best.
Quality17/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Momentum83/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 18; rank 1 is best.
Growth87/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 14; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework42/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 14.7x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.8x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.6x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 9.2% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 37.9% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 6.4% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 8.2% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 6.5% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 10.4% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 15.4% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 2.8% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 8/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 3.6% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 2.7% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 6.4% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment55/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 17 relevant articles.
2 positive · 13 neutral · 2 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-0.2%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+8.0%Week of 7 Aug.
Worst week-7.1%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+8.0%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains4
Modest gains11
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses3
Recent vol4.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.8% / -2.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorGB Industrials
4-week rank16 / 100
Group average9.1%
Trend breadth46.0%
Trend46.0%active weekly trend signals
MD65.0%positive activity pressure
RS50.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryGB Industrial Distribution
4-week rank3 / 10
Group average6.7%
Trend breadth40.0%
Trend40.0%active weekly trend signals
MD90.0%positive activity pressure
RS60.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape53/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 53/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis20/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 4/12, relative leadership 1/12.
Activity pressure 0.28; 1 reversal markers Factors66/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 22; Small Cap Core rank 19 SVQF42/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 152.0 of 260 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment55/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 17 relevant articles.
Grafton Group (GFTU) Executes Buyback of 30,000 Shares at £10.3675 Average Price in £25m Repurchase Plan Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 1,043 GBP | 8.0% | 915.0 GBP | 931.4 GBP | 1.02 | 4.92 | 1.4M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 965.7 GBP | 2.4% | 911.9 GBP | 930.4 GBP | 0.73 | -2.57 | 1.6M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 943.5 GBP | -0.1% | 910.4 GBP | 929.8 GBP | 0.48 | -3.82 | 1.5M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 944.8 GBP | 7.5% | 910.0 GBP | 929.4 GBP | 0.29 | -2.69 | 1.4M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 878.8 GBP | -2.8% | 909.7 GBP | 928.9 GBP | -0.02 | -8.85 | 1.7M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 904.3 GBP | -0.9% | 911.3 GBP | 928.5 GBP | -0.26 | -8.15 | 126.7K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 912.6 GBP | 3.5% | 912.1 GBP | 927.5 GBP | -0.71 | -6.34 | 137.7K | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 882.1 GBP | 0.8% | 913.2 GBP | 926.6 GBP | -1.09 | -8.77 | 531.6K | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 875.0 GBP | 5.8% | 913.2 GBP | 925.9 GBP | -1.36 | -10.94 | 573.6K | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 826.7 GBP | -0.4% | 914.5 GBP | 925.5 GBP | -1.52 | -15.54 | 171.1K | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 830.1 GBP | 0.3% | 918.0 GBP | 925.7 GBP | -1.39 | -16.12 | 1.6M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 827.3 GBP | 2.3% | 922.0 GBP | 925.8 GBP | -1.21 | -17.45 | 2.0M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 808.4 GBP | -7.1% | 927.3 GBP | 925.8 GBP | -0.99 | -17.78 | 3.0M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 870.3 GBP | -2.0% | 930.7 GBP | 926.2 GBP | -0.62 | -12.45 | 1.5M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.