MEX Equity Snapshot

MSTR Weekly Equity Report

Strategy Inc

Latest Close 2,140 MXN 12 Jun 2026
1W Return 2.7% latest completed week
4W Return -30.8% short-term follow-through
12W Return -11.9% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 15.4% 8 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.3x vs 13-week average
Sharemaestro Evidence Rating

Caution

A cross-signal market read combining weekly price structure, proprietary indicators, factors, Patient Capital, options, sentiment, insider activity, earnings risk, research flow, and sector context.

Evidence Score 35 Caution

Top-level conclusion

The strongest supporting evidence is sentiment: Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.

The main constraint is weekly tape: Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 24/100 tape read.

The combined read is defensive, so risk control and evidence of stabilization matter more than headline upside.

Primary driver

Sentiment 52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.

Main constraint

Weekly tape 24/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 24/100 tape read.

Company Brief

What the company does

Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments. The company also provides AI-powered enterprise analytics software, including Strategy One, which provides non-technical users with the ability to directly access novel and actionable insights for decision-making. In addition, the company provides Strategy Mosaic, a universal intelligence layer that offers enterprises with consistent definitions and governance across data sources, regardless …

Snapshot

What the weekly tape is saying

MSTR closed the latest completed week at 2,140 MXN. The 4-week return is -30.8% and the 12-week return is -11.9%. The trend backdrop is inactive, with activity pressure at 0.82. Setup signature: Risk-first tape with a 22/100 composite read.

Trend backdrop Inactive
Activity pressure No fresh buy
Price vs Trend -20.5%
Volume 1.3x
Setup Cockpit

A compressed read of the whole setup

The radar blends trend persistence, momentum, activity pressure, relative leadership, volume confirmation, and risk control into one weekly cockpit.

Composite setup radar

Scoreboard

Trend 8 Persistence of the active trend backdrop over the last year and current streak.
Momentum 0 Blend of 4-week and 12-week follow-through.
Activity Pressure 61 Latest activity pressure and whether pressure has improved over four weeks.
Relative Leadership 0 Relative leadership and short-term leadership change.
Expectancy Model 29 Sharemaestro expectancy direction and probability from the latest completed week.
Volume 53 Participation compared with the 13-week volume baseline.
Smart Money 22 Activity pressure and recent smart-money signal balance.
Risk Control 0 Drawdown and recent weekly volatility pressure.

16-week signal tape

27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun
Weekly return bar Trend backdrop dot Positive activity-pressure dot
Price Action

Price, Trend Line, and Fair Value

Weekly price context with the latest close, trend position, Fair Value gap, drawdown, and 52-week range location.

52-week price path

Price Trend Line Fair Value

Price zone

Close Trend Fair
1,822 MXN 4.7% 8,580 MXN
Range location 4.7% Shows where the latest close sits between the 52-week low and high.
Trend distance -20.5% Price premium or discount versus the weekly Trend Line.
Fair-value gap -41.8% Premium demand or model discount versus Sharemaestro Fair Value.
High-water gap -75.1% Distance from the latest 52-week high.
Momentum

Returns and trend persistence

Return windows separate the latest week from short-term and medium-term follow-through.

Return windows

1W 2.7%
4W -30.8%
12W -11.9%
26W -35.2%
52W -70.5%

Trend read

Active Streak
0 weeks
52W Active Weeks
8
52W Active Breadth
15.4%
Sector Scope
MX Technology
Sector Rank
30 of 148
Sector Percentile
80.3%
30 of 148
Peer Context

Sector and industry pulse

Peer breadth helps separate a stock-specific move from a broader group rotation.

Activity Pressure

Pressure, relative leadership, and expectancy

Activity pressure and relative leadership show whether buying pressure and group strength are confirming the price move.

Dynamics path

Activity pressure Relative leadership

Pressure map

Activity pressure
Relative leadership
Pressure 0.82 Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change -49.1% Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership -54.13 Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change -36.5% Four-week change in relative leadership.
Expectancy Model Negative 42.38% probability read.
Indicator Analysis

Smart money, activity pressure, trend signals, and expectancy

Recent confirmation shows whether the latest setup is supported by activity pressure, trend quality, relative leadership, and the Sharemaestro Expectancy Model.

Activity pressure path

Activity pressure Latest 0.12 12W avg 0.07

Expectancy over time

Positive / negative expectancy Current Negative 42.38%

12-week confirmation

Trend active 0/12 Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure 12/12 Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership 0/12 Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure 0.12 Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals 0 Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers 0 No reversal markers

Smart money activity

Support markers
0
Risk markers
0
Pressure positive weeks
0
Score input
50/100

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

Volume

Participation and confirmation

Volume tells us whether the latest weekly move is being confirmed by unusual participation.

Volume and return confirmation

Participation read

Participation 1.3x Latest volume versus the 13-week average.
Baseline 18.9K 13-week average volume.
One-year base 12.9K 52-week average volume.
Latest 24.0K Most recent completed week.
Risk Anatomy

Volatility, downside weeks, and return shape

A compact risk profile shows whether the move is steady, volatile, or being driven by sharp one-week jumps.

26-week return distribution

Return shape

Strong gains 5
Modest gains 4
Flat weeks 0
Modest losses 8
Sharp losses 9
Recent vol 11.6% 13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol 8.2% 52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split 20/32 Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew 5.5% / -6.6% Average positive week versus average negative week.
Cross-App Evidence

Value, flow, sentiment, events, and research context

These cards convert the rest of Sharemaestro into a compact evidence trail, with direct drilldowns for deeper research.

Options and sentiment

Sentiment
52/100
Articles
30 relevant

Earnings, insiders, and research flow

Earnings
-
Insiders
-
News
0 articles
Market Watch
0 posts

Latest Sharemaestro research

  • No recent research articles are stored for this ticker.

Latest Market Watch posts

  • No recent Market Watch posts are stored for this ticker.
Context

Classification, opportunities, risks, and watch points

Top-level read across company classification, constructive evidence, caution points, and the next things that matter.

Classification

Exchange
MEX
Country
MX
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Application
Currency
MXN
Market Cap
922.7B

Opportunity signals

  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.

Risk signals

  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • The Expectancy Model is negative at 42.38%, which weighs against the setup.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.

Watch next

  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Weekly Tape

Recent completed weeks

The latest weekly rows behind the report snapshot.

Week Close Return Trend Fair Value Pressure Leadership Volume Signal
12 Jun 2026 2,140 MXN 2.7% 2,692 MXN 3,679 MXN 0.82 -54.13 24.0K Off
5 Jun 2026 2,084 MXN -24.4% 2,742 MXN 3,669 MXN 1.12 -55.29 42.9K Off
29 May 2026 2,755 MXN -0.6% 2,822 MXN 3,659 MXN 1.35 -44.39 10.0K Off
22 May 2026 2,772 MXN -10.4% 2,898 MXN 3,644 MXN 1.49 -45.07 13.3K Off
15 May 2026 3,094 MXN -3.3% 2,984 MXN 3,630 MXN 1.60 -39.66 30.0K Off
8 May 2026 3,198 MXN 10.6% 3,058 MXN 3,613 MXN 1.57 -40.65 27.1K Off
1 May 2026 2,892 MXN -2.9% 3,141 MXN 3,596 MXN 1.20 -46.05 22.5K Off
24 Apr 2026 2,977 MXN 3.3% 3,259 MXN 3,581 MXN 0.83 -46.80 28.7K Off
17 Apr 2026 2,882 MXN 29.0% 3,350 MXN 3,566 MXN 0.51 -49.93 16.7K Off
10 Apr 2026 2,234 MXN 2.0% 3,465 MXN 3,551 MXN 0.21 -61.96 6.2K Off
3 Apr 2026 2,191 MXN -4.3% 3,593 MXN 3,540 MXN 0.21 -63.26 6.7K Off
27 Mar 2026 2,288 MXN -5.8% 3,730 MXN 3,530 MXN 0.22 -60.65 8.6K Off
20 Mar 2026 2,428 MXN -3.3% 3,863 MXN 3,518 MXN 0.09 -57.32 8.5K Off
13 Mar 2026 2,510 MXN 6.8% 4,004 MXN 3,506 MXN -0.08 -57.61 5.4K Off