- The trend backdrop is active with a 15-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
TLC
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
The Lottery Corporation Limited · Consumer Cyclical · Gambling
Latest close
5.46 AUD
-2.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is active. Price is 1.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 54.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.3%, after a -0.4% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 53/100.
Setup score
51
out of 100
Latest Close
5.46 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
-2.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
-0.4%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
1.9%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
55.8%
29 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.1x
vs 13-week average
- 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-2.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move -0.4%.
Indicator stack
76/65
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
53/100
30 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 1.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 54.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.3%, after a -0.4% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.6312-week average 0.63
12-week confirmation
Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure3/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership9/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.63Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -0.4% over four weeks, 1.9% over 12 weeks, and 3.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 15 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak15 weeks
Active weeks in one year29
Trend breadth55.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.10Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change162.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-4.26Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-427.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025
Field coverage 85%
Model confidence 43%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength44/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 57; rank 1 is best.
Value6/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 95; rank 1 is best.
Quality91/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 10; rank 1 is best.
Momentum85/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
Growth3/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 98; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 33.2x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 3.3x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.6x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 3.3% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 100.0% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 16.6% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 12.6% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 19.8% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -6.3% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -11.7% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 10.8% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 3.0% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.6% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 3.6% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.6x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment53/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.
7 positive · 22 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-7.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher11 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+8.8%Week of 12 Jun.
Worst week-4.4%Week of 24 Jul.
Latest week-2.3%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains3
Modest gains8
Flat weeks3
Modest losses10
Sharp losses2
Recent vol3.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.7% / -2.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank66 / 91
Group average3.9%
Trend breadth19.8%
Trend19.8%active weekly trend signals
MD71.4%positive activity pressure
RS25.3%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Gambling
4-week rank6 / 9
Group average0.4%
Trend breadth33.3%
Trend33.3%active weekly trend signals
MD55.6%positive activity pressure
RS11.1%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape53/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 53/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis60/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 3/12, relative leadership 9/12.
Activity pressure 0.63; 2 reversal markers Factors55/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 7 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment53/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.
The Lottery Corporation Ltd (ASX:TLC): Portfolio Consideration Guide For Discretionary Sector Investors Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 5.46 AUD | -2.3% | 5.40 AUD | 4.94 AUD | 0.10 | -4.26 | 16.8M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 5.59 AUD | 2.8% | 5.38 AUD | 4.94 AUD | 0.08 | 1.12 | 18.3M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 5.44 AUD | -4.4% | 5.37 AUD | 4.94 AUD | -0.09 | 0.77 | 17.8M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 5.69 AUD | 3.8% | 5.36 AUD | 4.93 AUD | -0.05 | 5.14 | 12.8M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 5.48 AUD | 0.0% | 5.34 AUD | 4.92 AUD | -0.15 | 1.30 | 13.1M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 5.48 AUD | -2.7% | 5.33 AUD | 4.92 AUD | -0.12 | 0.92 | 4.2M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 5.63 AUD | 1.3% | 5.32 AUD | 4.91 AUD | -0.24 | 4.72 | 2.9M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 5.56 AUD | -2.1% | 5.31 AUD | 4.91 AUD | -0.41 | 2.79 | 10.2M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 5.68 AUD | 8.8% | 5.30 AUD | 4.90 AUD | -0.40 | 5.38 | 5.1M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 5.22 AUD | -3.7% | 5.29 AUD | 4.89 AUD | -0.36 | -1.00 | 20.4M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 5.42 AUD | 4.4% | 5.29 AUD | 4.89 AUD | -0.05 | 1.61 | 12.7M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 5.19 AUD | -3.2% | 5.29 AUD | 4.88 AUD | 0.27 | -1.76 | 33.0M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 5.36 AUD | 1.1% | 5.31 AUD | 4.88 AUD | 0.48 | 1.70 | 27.1M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 5.30 AUD | -4.2% | 5.32 AUD | 4.88 AUD | 0.70 | -0.72 | 32.6M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.