- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
ORCA
LSE
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Orcadian Energy Plc · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Latest close
0.15 GBP
-6.1%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 44.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -6.1%, after a 26.5% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 59/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
45
out of 100
Latest Close
0.15 GBP
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
-6.1%
latest completed week
4W Return
26.5%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
1.3%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
53.8%
28 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.4x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 32.73% based on similar historical setup states.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-6.1%
Latest completed week; four-week move 26.5%.
Indicator stack
30/72
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 32.73%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
59/100
22 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 44.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -6.1%, after a 26.5% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.4x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.2812-week average 0.30
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure2/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership7/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.28Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 26.5% over four weeks, 1.3% over 12 weeks, and 63.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year28
Trend breadth53.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.60Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change138.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership3.30Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change126.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 58%
Model confidence 46%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength38/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 63; rank 1 is best.
Value42/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 59; rank 1 is best.
Quality43/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 58; rank 1 is best.
Momentum43/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 58; rank 1 is best.
Growth44/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 57; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- - Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -15.0% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- - Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- - Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- - Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -31.5% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -1.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment59/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 22 relevant articles.
6 positive · 15 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-38.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility16.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher8 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+55.1%Week of 17 Jul.
Worst week-18.1%Week of 20 Feb.
Latest week-6.1%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains2
Flat weeks5
Modest losses4
Sharp losses9
Recent vol16.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol15.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split19/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew14.1% / -8.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorGB Energy
4-week rank7 / 93
Group average3.2%
Trend breadth34.4%
Trend34.4%active weekly trend signals
MD31.2%positive activity pressure
RS24.7%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryGB Oil & Gas E&P
4-week rank5 / 68
Group average2.0%
Trend breadth35.3%
Trend35.3%active weekly trend signals
MD30.9%positive activity pressure
RS26.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape39/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 39/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis28/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 2/12, relative leadership 7/12.
Activity pressure 0.28; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 32.73%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 32.73% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors40/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 62 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment59/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 22 relevant articles.
European earnings growth estimate rises to 20.8% as energy profits surge Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.15 GBP | -6.1% | 0.16 GBP | 0.12 GBP | 0.60 | 3.30 | 413.7K | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.17 GBP | -17.5% | 0.16 GBP | 0.12 GBP | 0.20 | 10.88 | 1.1M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 0.20 GBP | 5.3% | 0.16 GBP | 0.12 GBP | -0.25 | 36.90 | 6.7M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 0.19 GBP | 55.1% | 0.15 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -0.95 | 33.22 | 3.0M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.12 GBP | 0.0% | 0.15 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -1.57 | -12.48 | 90.6K | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.12 GBP | 0.0% | 0.15 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -1.62 | -13.98 | 11 | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 0.12 GBP | -2.0% | 0.15 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -1.68 | -12.64 | 386 | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 0.12 GBP | 0.0% | 0.15 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -1.55 | -9.69 | 14.7K | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.12 GBP | -10.7% | 0.15 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -1.46 | -10.76 | 359.2K | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 0.14 GBP | -1.8% | 0.15 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -1.30 | 0.88 | 35.2K | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 0.14 GBP | 0.0% | 0.15 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -1.16 | 2.60 | 194.5K | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 0.14 GBP | -6.9% | 0.16 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -1.06 | 2.38 | 200.6K | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 0.15 GBP | 2.0% | 0.15 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -0.76 | 13.19 | 104.9K | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 0.15 GBP | -14.3% | 0.15 GBP | 0.11 GBP | -0.50 | 11.13 | 443.0K | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.