Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
TFPM earnings intelligence
Triple Flag Precious Metals CorpBasic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery and acceptance aligned
Results have usually cleared estimates and the next completed weekly close has, on average, confirmed the delivery.
Evidence96/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Tuesday 3 November 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
40event risk
Moderate
Countdown22 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.28 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+16.7%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement5.1%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is widening and has persisted through 2 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move147.9%2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09
Earnings move281.1%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread133.2 ptsWidening
Current multiple22.1xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure78/100High
Model confidence88/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Beat rate100.0%12 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+10.8%median 9.1%
Delivery streak1212 consecutive beats
Average response+2.8%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation67%same directional sign
Surprise variability6.5 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth139.0%year on year
Revenue growth50.6%year on year
Average surprise9.4%latest four quarters
SUE1.92standardised surprise
Net margin84.3%trailing basis
Cash conversion-0.53xcash flow / net income
P/E15.6xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close31.21 USDcompleted week
13-week return11.1%price momentum
Fair-value gap38.4%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-13.1exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided50.9%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period5 Aug 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.39 / 0.33USD
Surprise+18.2%Beat
EPS growth+62.5%year on year
Revenue / growth129211000+37.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks+13.4% / +18.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.45 / 0.42USD
Surprise+7.1%Beat
EPS growth+125.0%year on year
Revenue / growth144956892+76.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.9% / +0.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.33 / 0.32USD
Surprise+3.1%Beat
EPS growth+83.3%year on year
Revenue / growth120743890+62.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.2% / -0.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.24 / 0.22USD
Surprise+9.1%Beat
EPS growth+60.0%year on year
Revenue / growth93456000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.7% / +20.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.24 / 0.22USD
Surprise+9.1%Beat
EPS growth+84.6%year on year
Revenue / growth94087000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+14.8% / +18.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.20 / 0.19USD
Surprise+5.3%Beat
EPS growth+66.7%year on year
Revenue / growth82245000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.4% / +4.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.18 / 0.16USD
Surprise+12.5%Beat
EPS growth+100.0%year on year
Revenue / growth74213000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.0% / +10.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.15 / 0.14USD
Surprise+7.1%Beat
EPS growth+66.7%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.3% / -1.4%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.13 / 0.12USD
Surprise+8.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.1% / +9.1%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.12 / 0.11USD
Surprise+9.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.8% / +1.5%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.09 / 0.07USD
Surprise+28.6%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.6% / +8.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.09 / 0.08USD
Surprise+12.5%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-10.0% / +4.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.