Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
ASTL earnings intelligence
Algoma Steel Group IncBasic Materials · Steel · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery under pressure
Estimate misses and negative next-close reactions have appeared together often enough to warrant caution.
Evidence95/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 4 November 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
66event risk
Elevated
Countdown23 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate-0.53 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+53.5%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement8.8%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Three-year relationship unavailable
Earnings power must be positive through the latest visible week.
Beat rate33.3%4 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise-6.0%median -25.6%
Delivery streak55 consecutive misses
Average response-1.4%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation67%same directional sign
Surprise variability140.9 ptspopulation dispersion
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue growth-32.8%year on year
Average surprise-96.4%latest four quarters
SUE-0.47standardised surprise
Net margin-71.6%trailing basis
Cash conversion0.33xcash flow / net income
P/E-current snapshot
Data completeness71%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close4.30 USDcompleted week
13-week return18.8%price momentum
Fair-value gap-33.5%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-13.2exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided50.4%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period29 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.64 / -0.51USD
Surprise-25.5%Miss
EPS growth+29.7%year on year
Revenue / growth267500000-54.6% · CAD
Next close / four weeks-10.9% / +7.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-1.50 / -1.15USD
Surprise-30.4%Miss
EPS growth-219.1%year on year
Revenue / growth296900000-42.6% · CAD
Next close / four weeks+6.6% / +16.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period11 Mar 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-2.54 / -0.61USD
Surprise-313.4%Miss
EPS growth-476.6%year on year
Revenue / growth455000000- · CAD
Next close / four weeks-21.4% / -5.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-1.14 / -0.98USD
Surprise-16.3%Miss
EPS growth-137.5%year on year
Revenue / growth523900000- · CAD
Next close / four weeks-7.3% / -25.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.91 / -0.55USD
Surprise-65.5%Miss
EPS growth-1400.0%year on year
Revenue / growth589700000- · CAD
Next close / four weeks-17.5% / -20.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Apr 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.47 / -1.07USD
Surprise+56.1%Beat
EPS growth-2450.0%year on year
Revenue / growth517100000- · CAD
Next close / four weeks+12.3% / +6.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period12 Mar 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.44 / -0.70USD
Surprise+37.1%Beat
EPS growth+8.3%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.7% / -26.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.48 / -0.28USD
Surprise-71.4%Miss
EPS growth-308.7%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.6% / +2.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period13 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.07 / -0.04USD
Surprise+275.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+7.3% / +14.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Jun 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.02 / -0.02USD
Surprise+200.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.6% / +3.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.48 / -0.25USD
Surprise-92.0%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.3% / -4.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period2 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.23 / 0.31USD
Surprise-25.8%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+6.0% / +12.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.