Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
HD earnings intelligence
The Home Depot IncConsumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence96/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Tuesday 17 November 2026
Before the open · Fiscal period ending 31 Oct 2026
19event risk
Contained
Countdown36 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate3.86 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+3.2%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement3.0%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is closing and has persisted through 11 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move8.9%2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09
Earnings move-7.5%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-16.4 ptsClosing
Current multiple19.6xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure37/100Low
Model confidence90/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Fundamental fracture
Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate58.3%7 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+1.2%median 0.6%
Delivery streak33 consecutive beats
Average response+1.0%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation86%same directional sign
Surprise variability2.6 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-2.7%year on year
Revenue growth2.5%year on year
Average surprise2.7%latest four quarters
SUE0.34standardised surprise
Net margin8.4%trailing basis
Cash conversion1.06xcash flow / net income
P/E20.4xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close290.74 USDcompleted week
13-week return-15.3%price momentum
Fair-value gap-16.6%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-22.3exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided48.9%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period18 Aug 202631 Jul 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.92 / 4.71USD
Surprise+4.5%Beat
EPS growth+5.1%year on year
Revenue / growth47861000000+5.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.0% / -8.2%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 May 202630 Apr 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.43 / 3.41USD
Surprise+0.6%Beat
EPS growth-3.7%year on year
Revenue / growth41765000000+4.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.2% / +11.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Feb 202631 Jan 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.72 / 2.52USD
Surprise+7.9%Beat
EPS growth-9.9%year on year
Revenue / growth38198000000-3.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.4% / -15.5%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Nov 202531 Oct 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.74 / 3.83USD
Surprise-2.3%Miss
EPS growth+1.9%year on year
Revenue / growth41352000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.3% / -0.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Aug 202531 Jul 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.68 / 4.69USD
Surprise-0.2%In-Line
EPS growth+1.7%year on year
Revenue / growth45277000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.4% / +6.4%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 May 202530 Apr 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.56 / 3.59USD
Surprise-0.8%Miss
EPS growth-1.9%year on year
Revenue / growth39856000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.7% / -6.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Feb 202531 Jan 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.02 / 3.04USD
Surprise-0.7%Miss
EPS growth+7.1%year on year
Revenue / growth39704000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.9% / -8.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period12 Nov 202431 Oct 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.67 / 3.66USD
Surprise+0.3%In-Line
EPS growth-3.7%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.6% / +6.8%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period13 Aug 202431 Jul 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.60 / 4.55USD
Surprise+1.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.8% / +3.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period14 May 202430 Apr 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.63 / 3.61USD
Surprise+0.6%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.6% / -5.0%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Feb 202431 Jan 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.82 / 2.77USD
Surprise+1.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.7% / +3.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period14 Nov 202331 Oct 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.81 / 3.76USD
Surprise+1.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.4% / +12.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.