Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
NGVT earnings intelligence
Ingevity CorpBasic Materials · Specialty Chemicals · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence95/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 4 November 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
68event risk
Elevated
Countdown23 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate1.56 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+19.1%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement9.4%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is closing and has persisted through 12 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move71.9%2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09
Earnings move-6.4%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-78.3 ptsClosing
Current multiple14.4xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure60/100Moderate
Model confidence94/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Fundamental fracture
Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree.
Beat rate66.7%8 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+54.9%median 27.5%
Delivery streak22 consecutive beats
Average response+5.8%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation89%same directional sign
Surprise variability75.4 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue growth-12.4%year on year
Average surprise15.0%latest four quarters
SUE0.62standardised surprise
Net margin4.7%trailing basis
Cash conversion2.87xcash flow / net income
P/E44.4xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness93%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close69.76 USDcompleted week
13-week return-3.2%price momentum
Fair-value gap34.3%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-5.4exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week statePositive55.7%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period29 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.74 / 1.31USD
Surprise+32.8%Beat
EPS growth+25.2%year on year
Revenue / growth314100000-14.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.2% / -4.1%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.15 / 0.83USD
Surprise+38.6%Beat
EPS growth+16.2%year on year
Revenue / growth258000000-9.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.4% / -10.7%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.63 / 0.69USD
Surprise-8.3%Miss
EPS growth-33.7%year on year
Revenue / growth255100000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.2% / -11.9%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.31 / 1.35USD
Surprise-3.0%Miss
EPS growth+19.1%year on year
Revenue / growth333100000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-9.9% / -2.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.39 / 1.16USD
Surprise+19.8%Beat
EPS growth+37.6%year on year
Revenue / growth365100000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+26.9% / +44.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.99 / 0.74USD
Surprise+33.8%Beat
EPS growth+90.4%year on year
Revenue / growth284000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+15.5% / +18.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.95 / 0.31USD
Surprise+208.9%Beat
EPS growth+352.4%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.0% / -2.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.10 / 0.90USD
Surprise+22.2%Beat
EPS growth-9.1%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+24.8% / +44.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period31 Jul 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.01 / 1.04USD
Surprise-2.9%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-10.8% / -16.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.52 / 0.25USD
Surprise+108.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+10.4% / -1.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.21 / -0.19USD
Surprise+210.5%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.7% / -5.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.21 / 1.23USD
Surprise-1.6%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.4% / +0.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.