Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
MPWR earnings intelligence
Monolithic Power Systems IncTechnology · Semiconductors · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery and acceptance aligned
Results have usually cleared estimates and the next completed weekly close has, on average, confirmed the delivery.
Evidence95/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Thursday 29 October 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
48event risk
Elevated
Countdown18 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate6.50 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+37.4%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement10.1%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is stable and has persisted through 12 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move236.2%2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09
Earnings move60.0%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-176.2 ptsStable
Current multiple69.2xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure91/100Extreme
Model confidence83/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Expectations stretched
Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate100.0%12 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+3.2%median 2.2%
Delivery streak1212 consecutive beats
Average response+5.3%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation67%same directional sign
Surprise variability3.0 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-57.1%year on year
Revenue growth28.7%year on year
Average surprise4.7%latest four quarters
SUE0.96standardised surprise
Net margin24.4%trailing basis
Cash conversion0.73xcash flow / net income
P/E88.6xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close1,386.29 USDcompleted week
13-week return2.5%price momentum
Fair-value gap58.4%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-0.4exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week statePositive62.0%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period30 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate5.41 / 4.84USD
Surprise+11.8%Beat
EPS growth+28.5%year on year
Revenue / growth980642000+47.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+6.9% / -1.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Apr 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate5.10 / 4.90USD
Surprise+4.1%Beat
EPS growth+26.2%year on year
Revenue / growth804185000+26.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.1% / -2.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.79 / 4.74USD
Surprise+1.1%Beat
EPS growth+17.1%year on year
Revenue / growth751155000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.4% / +1.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.73 / 4.64USD
Surprise+1.9%Beat
EPS growth+16.5%year on year
Revenue / growth737176000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.5% / -18.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period31 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.21 / 4.12USD
Surprise+2.2%Beat
EPS growth+32.8%year on year
Revenue / growth664574000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.9% / +18.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.04 / 4.00USD
Surprise+1.0%Beat
EPS growth+43.8%year on year
Revenue / growth637554000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.1% / +13.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.09 / 3.98USD
Surprise+2.8%Beat
EPS growth+42.0%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+13.0% / -4.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.06 / 3.97USD
Surprise+2.3%Beat
EPS growth+31.8%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-15.7% / -35.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.17 / 3.07USD
Surprise+3.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.2% / +13.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.81 / 2.64USD
Surprise+6.4%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.4% / +11.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.88 / 2.85USD
Surprise+1.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+18.3% / +17.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Oct 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.08 / 3.06USD
Surprise+0.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+21.4% / +35.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.