Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
DE earnings intelligence
Deere & CompanyIndustrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Results and price are diverging
The sign of the earnings surprise has often differed from the direction of the next completed weekly close.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Thursday 20 August 2026
Before the open · Fiscal period ending 31 Jul 2026
47event risk
Elevated
Countdown8 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate4.85 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+2.1%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement6.6%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 7 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move62.5%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move-42.2%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-104.8 ptsWidening
Current multiple35.2xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure81/100High
Model confidence96/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Fundamental fracture
Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree.
Beat rate91.7%11 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+11.5%median 13.2%
Delivery streak55 consecutive beats
Average response+0.4%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation33%same directional sign
Surprise variability7.5 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-15.4%year on year
Revenue growth5.4%year on year
Average surprise8.7%latest four quarters
SUE1.23standardised surprise
Net margin10.2%trailing basis
Cash conversion2.53xcash flow / net income
P/E35.1xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close620.83 USDcompleted week
13-week return8.3%price momentum
Fair-value gap37.5%price versus current fair value
Relative strength3.9exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided45.8%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period21 May 202630 Apr 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate6.55 / 5.70USD
Surprise+14.9%Beat
EPS growth-1.4%year on year
Revenue / growth13369000000+6.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.8% / +2.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Feb 202631 Jan 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.42 / 2.10USD
Surprise+15.2%Beat
EPS growth-24.1%year on year
Revenue / growth9611000000+16.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.9% / -4.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Nov 202531 Oct 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.93 / 3.83USD
Surprise+2.6%Beat
EPS growth-13.6%year on year
Revenue / growth12094000000+11.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.7% / -3.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period14 Aug 202531 Jul 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.75 / 4.66USD
Surprise+1.9%Beat
EPS growth-24.5%year on year
Revenue / growth11783000000-8.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.2% / -7.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 May 202530 Apr 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate6.64 / 5.62USD
Surprise+18.1%Beat
EPS growth-22.2%year on year
Revenue / growth12525000000-16.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+7.9% / +5.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period13 Feb 202531 Jan 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.19 / 3.25USD
Surprise-1.8%Miss
EPS growth-48.8%year on year
Revenue / growth8262000000-30.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.1% / +7.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Nov 202431 Oct 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.55 / 3.93USD
Surprise+15.8%Beat
EPS growth-45.3%year on year
Revenue / growth10827000000-28.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+12.0% / +10.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 Aug 202431 Jul 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate6.29 / 5.79USD
Surprise+8.6%Beat
EPS growth-38.3%year on year
Revenue / growth12848000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.2% / +10.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 May 202430 Apr 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate8.53 / 7.91USD
Surprise+7.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth14997000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.7% / -9.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 Feb 202431 Jan 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate6.23 / 5.25USD
Surprise+18.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth11846000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.4% / -1.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Nov 202331 Oct 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate8.32 / 7.46USD
Surprise+11.5%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth15157000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.6% / +0.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Aug 202331 Jul 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate10.20 / 8.18USD
Surprise+24.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-10.3% / -8.1%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.