Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
NVDA earnings intelligence
NVIDIA CorporationTechnology · Semiconductors · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery strong, expectations demanding
Results have usually cleared estimates, but price has not consistently rewarded the delivery.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 26 August 2026
After the close · Fiscal period ending 31 Jul 2026
45event risk
Elevated
Countdown13 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate2.01 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+91.4%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement5.8%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is widening and has persisted through 12 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move418.2%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move1808.5%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread1390.3 ptsWidening
Current multiple38.3xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure97/100Extreme
Model confidence74/100Moderate
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Fresh improvement awaiting confirmation
Earnings improved at the latest reported update, but market price remains below its pre-update level.
Starting-base sensitivity
The three-year earnings move begins from an unusually depressed level; compare the shorter horizons before relying on its scale.
Model qualification
The three-year starting earnings level was unusually depressed.
Model qualification
The earnings move is exceptionally large and should be read with its quality confirmation.
Beat rate100.0%12 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+9.8%median 8.0%
Delivery streak1212 consecutive beats
Average response-0.4%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation36%same directional sign
Surprise variability7.5 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth107.9%year on year
Revenue growth70.7%year on year
Average surprise4.5%latest four quarters
SUE3.02standardised surprise
Net margin63.0%trailing basis
Cash conversion0.83xcash flow / net income
P/E34.0xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close223.96 USDcompleted week
13-week return4.2%price momentum
Fair-value gap68.5%price versus current fair value
Relative strength3.2exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week statePositive60.2%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period20 May 202630 Apr 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.87 / 1.77USD
Surprise+5.6%Beat
EPS growth+130.9%year on year
Revenue / growth81615000000+85.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.4% / -8.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Feb 202631 Jan 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.62 / 1.54USD
Surprise+5.2%Beat
EPS growth+82.0%year on year
Revenue / growth68127000000+73.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.7% / -9.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Nov 202531 Oct 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.30 / 1.26USD
Surprise+3.2%Beat
EPS growth+60.5%year on year
Revenue / growth57006000000+62.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.9% / -8.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period27 Aug 202531 Jul 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.05 / 1.01USD
Surprise+4.0%Beat
EPS growth+54.4%year on year
Revenue / growth46743000000+55.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.1% / -0.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 May 202530 Apr 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.81 / 0.75USD
Surprise+8.0%Beat
EPS growth+32.4%year on year
Revenue / growth44062000000+69.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.9% / +9.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Feb 202531 Jan 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.89 / 0.85USD
Surprise+4.7%Beat
EPS growth+72.5%year on year
Revenue / growth39331000000+77.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.1% / -12.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Nov 202431 Oct 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.81 / 0.75USD
Surprise+8.0%Beat
EPS growth+101.5%year on year
Revenue / growth35082000000+93.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.0% / -5.4%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Aug 202431 Jul 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.68 / 0.63USD
Surprise+7.9%Beat
EPS growth+151.9%year on year
Revenue / growth30040000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.7% / -10.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 May 202430 Apr 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.61 / 0.56USD
Surprise+9.5%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth26044000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+15.1% / +42.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Feb 202431 Jan 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.52 / 0.46USD
Surprise+11.9%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth22103000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.5% / +21.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Nov 202331 Oct 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.40 / 0.34USD
Surprise+19.6%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth18120000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.1% / -0.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Aug 202331 Jul 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.27 / 0.21USD
Surprise+30.4%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+6.3% / +1.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.