SHH · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

600749Wave & cycle analysis

Tibet Tourism Co.,Ltd

Latest close CNY 12.65 Week ending 2 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The five-wave move is mature

The count describes a move that may be nearing its end. Watch for a confirmed reversal; maturity alone does not mean price has turned.

95/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Mature / manage risk Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countFive-wave decline mature

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsCheck whether the move is losing support

1 readings are positive, 6 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 6 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in CNY · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-09-22	12.39	12.83	11.21
2023-09-29	12.32	12.83	11.22
2023-10-13	11.20	12.82	11.22
2023-10-20	10.93	12.80	11.23
2023-10-27	11.55	12.78	11.24
2023-11-03	11.70	12.74	11.25
2023-11-10	11.56	12.70	11.26
2023-11-17	11.90	12.61	11.28
2023-11-24	11.96	12.52	11.30
2023-12-01	12.08	12.47	11.32
2023-12-08	11.89	12.45	11.34
2023-12-15	11.98	12.44	11.36
2023-12-22	11.44	12.42	11.37
2023-12-29	11.76	12.42	11.38
2024-01-05	12.10	12.39	11.40
2024-01-12	12.12	12.35	11.43
2024-01-19	12.39	12.32	11.45
2024-01-26	11.80	12.29	11.47
2024-02-02	9.56	12.17	11.48
2024-02-09	9.11	12.03	11.48
2024-02-23	9.81	11.92	11.49
2024-03-01	10.13	11.82	11.50
2024-03-08	10.41	11.72	11.51
2024-03-15	10.73	11.64	11.52
2024-03-22	11.09	11.57	11.53
2024-03-29	11.10	11.51	11.54
2024-04-05	11.34	11.49	11.54
2024-04-12	11.90	11.47	11.55
2024-04-19	10.14	11.37	11.55
2024-04-26	13.63	11.40	11.56
2024-05-03	11.84	11.38	11.57
2024-05-10	11.00	11.34	11.57
2024-05-17	12.26	11.37	11.58
2024-05-24	11.55	11.39	11.58
2024-05-31	12.02	11.41	11.59
2024-06-07	11.64	11.41	11.60
2024-06-14	11.30	11.40	11.60
2024-06-21	11.85	11.40	11.61
2024-06-28	12.93	11.43	11.62
2024-07-05	12.42	11.44	11.64
2024-07-12	12.39	11.46	11.65
2024-07-19	10.99	11.42	11.66
2024-07-26	10.54	11.40	11.66
2024-08-02	10.98	11.37	11.67
2024-08-09	10.86	11.33	11.67
2024-08-16	10.78	11.28	11.66
2024-08-23	10.43	11.22	11.66
2024-08-30	10.49	11.17	11.67
2024-09-06	10.49	11.20	11.67
2024-09-13	10.02	11.24	11.68
2024-09-20	10.12	11.25	11.68
2024-09-27	11.23	11.28	11.68
2024-10-04	12.29	11.34	11.69
2024-10-11	10.72	11.34	11.68
2024-10-18	10.99	11.34	11.68
2024-10-25	11.37	11.35	11.68
2024-11-01	11.26	11.35	11.69
2024-11-08	11.98	11.35	11.70
2024-11-15	11.21	11.39	11.70
2024-11-22	10.76	11.29	11.70
2024-11-29	11.34	11.27	11.72
2024-12-06	11.61	11.29	11.73
2024-12-13	12.65	11.31	11.75
2024-12-20	11.48	11.30	11.76
2024-12-27	11.00	11.27	11.76
2025-01-03	10.31	11.23	11.76
2025-01-10	10.26	11.19	11.76
2025-01-17	10.74	11.15	11.77
2025-01-24	10.72	11.08	11.77
2025-01-31	10.66	11.02	11.78
2025-02-07	10.69	10.97	11.78
2025-02-14	10.84	10.96	11.78
2025-02-21	11.12	10.98	11.78
2025-02-28	11.41	10.99	11.78
2025-03-07	11.41	11.01	11.78
2025-03-14	11.76	11.05	11.77
2025-03-21	11.80	11.09	11.77
2025-03-28	11.46	11.12	11.76
2025-04-04	11.65	11.16	11.75
2025-04-11	11.53	11.21	11.73
2025-04-18	11.72	11.27	11.72
2025-04-25	11.88	11.29	11.70
2025-05-02	11.11	11.25	11.69
2025-05-09	11.10	11.26	11.68
2025-05-16	11.13	11.27	11.68
2025-05-23	11.00	11.25	11.68
2025-05-30	11.19	11.25	11.69
2025-06-06	11.57	11.24	11.69
2025-06-13	11.51	11.25	11.69
2025-06-20	11.47	11.27	11.68
2025-06-27	11.95	11.29	11.68
2025-07-04	11.75	11.30	11.68
2025-07-11	12.05	11.28	11.68
2025-07-18	11.95	11.29	11.68
2025-07-25	19.26	11.57	11.72
2025-08-01	28.20	12.16	11.82
2025-08-08	24.25	12.63	11.90
2025-08-15	26.76	13.16	11.99
2025-08-22	24.90	13.64	12.07
2025-08-29	24.43	14.10	12.16
2025-09-05	24.71	14.56	12.25
2025-09-12	21.51	14.92	12.31
2025-09-19	24.34	15.36	12.40
2025-09-26	18.76	15.60	12.44
2025-10-03	18.43	15.84	12.49
2025-10-10	18.29	16.06	12.53
2025-10-17	17.85	16.26	12.58
2025-10-24	18.26	16.48	12.63
2025-10-31	18.86	16.72	12.69
2025-11-07	18.33	16.95	12.74
2025-11-14	18.23	17.17	12.80
2025-11-21	16.83	17.33	12.83
2025-11-28	17.33	17.54	12.87
2025-12-05	16.95	17.74	12.90
2025-12-12	16.62	17.92	12.94
2025-12-19	17.24	18.13	12.97
2025-12-26	16.96	18.32	13.00
2026-01-02	17.08	18.50	13.03
2026-01-09	17.28	18.69	13.06
2026-01-16	16.98	18.88	13.09
2026-01-23	17.63	19.07	13.12
2026-01-30	16.62	19.23	13.15
2026-02-06	16.69	19.38	13.18
2026-02-13	16.45	19.53	13.21
2026-02-27	16.42	19.44	13.24
2026-03-06	16.34	19.04	13.27
2026-03-13	16.61	18.79	13.30
2026-03-20	16.12	18.44	13.32
2026-03-27	16.21	18.15	13.35
2026-04-03	15.55	17.85	13.38
2026-04-10	16.99	17.59	13.41
2026-04-17	20.30	17.55	13.46
2026-04-24	18.30	17.35	13.49
2026-05-01	16.24	17.27	13.50
2026-05-08	16.40	17.20	13.51
2026-05-15	16.05	17.12	13.53
2026-05-22	15.31	17.04	13.55
2026-05-29	14.82	16.92	13.56
2026-06-05	14.99	16.80	13.58
2026-06-12	16.22	16.73	13.61
2026-06-19	14.49	16.60	13.62
2026-06-26	13.38	16.49	13.62
2026-07-03	14.07	16.38	13.63
2026-07-10	14.85	16.31	13.64
2026-07-17	13.99	16.22	13.65
2026-07-24	13.10	16.08	13.64
2026-07-31	13.82	15.98	13.65
2026-08-07	14.56	15.89	13.66
2026-08-14	13.90	15.78	13.66
2026-08-21	13.71	15.67	13.66
2026-08-28	14.83	15.58	13.67
2026-09-04	15.49	15.54	13.69
2026-09-11	14.55	15.47	13.71
2026-09-18	13.66	15.38	13.72
2026-09-25	13.19	15.27	13.72
2026-10-02	12.65	15.14	13.72

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Earlier confirmation levelBelow CNY 12.65 0.0% from the latest close

This is a reference for the mature move. It does not establish that another move in the same direction will follow.

Changes the wave viewAbove CNY 15.49 22.5% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing CNY 15.49

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-09-04

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return -18.3%

13-week return -10.1%

26-week return -18.6%

52-week return -32.6%

From 52-week high -42.5%

26-week volatility 52.2%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

A mature move needs fresh evidence

Below CNY 12.65

The earlier confirmation is a reference for the completed advance or decline. It does not confirm a new move in the same direction.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above CNY 15.49

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

1 of 1 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 15.5% reversalFive-wave decline mature

95/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 9.7% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

Tactical · 6.8% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 9.7% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave decline matureStrategic swing size · Leading86%

Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningStrategic swing size10%

A/B/C reset may be completingStrategic swing size4%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Five-wave decline mature

86% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 12.65 Fails above 15.49 Count stability Low · 4/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 28.20; Wave 2 20.30.

PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 15.55; Wave 3 13.10.

PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 15.55; Wave 4 15.49.

PassWave 3 is not the shortest motive waveMotive lengths: 12.65, 7.20, 2.84.

PassWave 5 makes motive progressWave 3 13.10; Wave 5 12.65.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 38% of Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 0.57× Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 33% of Wave 3.

GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.

Strategic degreeFive-wave decline mature

Strategic degree uses a 15.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeNo valid count

Primary degree uses a 9.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 6.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -18.3%

4 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 10.26

Pivot from 2025-01-10

Nearest confirmed resistance 15.49

Pivot from 2026-09-04

30-week trend 15.14

Price is -16.5% from trend

Fair Value reference 13.72

Price is -7.8% from Fair Value

52-week range position 1%

12.60 low · 22.00 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

1 readings are positive, 6 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

86% directional agreement

Check whether the move is losing support.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

16.5% below trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-18.4

Market activity

Participation is weak

-23.9

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.2

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-22.6

Balance of readings Defensive

1 constructive, 6 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 2 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+1 weeks

10w bandEstimated 12w · Falling

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 23.0 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 23w · Falling

Gaps in recent weekly history

0/100Repeat fit · 12.0 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 30w · Falling

Gaps in recent weekly history

0/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history

80w bandEstimated 100w · Falling

Gaps in recent weekly history

0/100Repeat fit · 2.8 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 0/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

0/100 rising alignment · 100/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low-

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high-

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough6w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 23w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough13w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough9w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough83w

Possible next low-

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 55.1% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 42.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Wave maturity
A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.
Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.
Cycle rollover
Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

Downside risk check

Elevated vulnerability

61/100

Wave maturity25/25

Trend extension0/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover11/15

Multi-cycle risk15/15

Count instability10/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low12.60

52-week high22.00

Annualised volatility52.2%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range6.7%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-55.1%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume49%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

29% constructive

7 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

12% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	576	49%	-0.1%	-0.8%	-11.6% to 13.0%
13 weeks	220	47%	-0.8%	-1.9%	-23.2% to 24.6%
26 weeks	125	50%	-0.5%	-2.7%	-23.5% to 41.9%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +4.2% across 60 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

60 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4.2%

13w

5.3%

26w

8.6%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	60	70%	4.2%	-9.7% to 25.9%
13 weeks	55	67%	5.3%	-21.2% to 126.4%
26 weeks	46	74%	8.6%	-18.6% to 164.5%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-02 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 9.7% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2025-08-01	Confirmed	High	28.20	174.9%	29 weeks
2025-08-08	Confirmed	Low	24.25	-14.0%	1 weeks
2025-08-15	Confirmed	High	26.76	10.4%	1 weeks
2025-09-12	Confirmed	Low	21.51	-19.6%	4 weeks
2025-09-19	Confirmed	High	24.34	13.2%	1 weeks
2026-04-03	Confirmed	Low	15.55	-36.1%	27 weeks
2026-04-17	Confirmed	High	20.30	30.5%	2 weeks
2026-06-26	Confirmed	Low	13.38	-34.1%	10 weeks
2026-07-10	Confirmed	High	14.85	11.0%	2 weeks
2026-07-24	Confirmed	Low	13.10	-11.8%	2 weeks
2026-09-04	Confirmed	High	15.49	18.2%	6 weeks
2026-10-02	Forming	Low	12.65	-18.3%	4 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

600749Wave & cycle analysis

The five-wave move is mature

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

A mature move needs fresh evidence

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave decline mature

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Elevated vulnerability

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

29% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

A mature move needs fresh evidence

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave decline mature

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Elevated vulnerability

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

29% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗