ASX · Basic Materials · Weekly analysis

CNJWave & cycle analysis

Conico Ltd

Latest close AUD 0.01 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

A rebound is being tested

The wave pattern treats the recent rise as a rebound within a larger decline. A fresh fall is still something to confirm.

62/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

A, B and C label a three-part correction. The outlined last point is still forming.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

4 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 3 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 7 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-20	0.40	0.5907	2.03
2023-10-27	0.40	0.58	2.01
2023-11-03	0.40	0.5693	2.00
2023-11-10	0.36	0.5573	1.98
2023-11-17	0.32	0.544	1.96
2023-11-24	0.48	0.5333	1.94
2023-12-01	0.40	0.524	1.93
2023-12-08	0.48	0.5187	1.91
2023-12-15	0.40	0.5107	1.90
2023-12-22	0.40	0.5027	1.89
2023-12-29	0.40	0.492	1.88
2024-01-05	0.40	0.484	1.87
2024-01-12	0.40	0.476	1.85
2024-01-19	0.36	0.4667	1.84
2024-01-26	0.32	0.4587	1.82
2024-02-02	0.28	0.4493	1.81
2024-02-09	0.24	0.436	1.79
2024-02-16	0.20	0.424	1.78
2024-02-23	0.16	0.408	1.76
2024-03-01	0.16	0.3947	1.75
2024-03-08	0.24	0.384	1.74
2024-03-15	0.20	0.372	1.72
2024-03-22	0.20	0.3627	1.70
2024-03-29	0.12	0.3507	1.69
2024-04-05	0.12	0.3387	1.67
2024-04-12	0.16	0.3253	1.66
2024-04-19	0.08	0.312	1.64
2024-04-26	0.08	0.2987	1.63
2024-05-03	0.08	0.288	1.61
2024-05-10	0.12	0.2787	1.60
2024-05-17	0.08	0.268	1.58
2024-05-24	0.08	0.2573	1.57
2024-05-31	0.12	0.248	1.55
2024-06-07	0.08	0.2387	1.54
2024-06-14	0.08	0.2307	1.53
2024-06-21	0.08	0.2173	1.51
2024-06-28	0.08	0.2067	1.50
2024-07-05	0.08	0.1933	1.49
2024-07-12	0.08	0.1827	1.47
2024-07-19	0.08	0.172	1.45
2024-07-26	0.08	0.1613	1.42
2024-08-02	0.16	0.1533	1.39
2024-08-09	0.08	0.1427	1.36
2024-08-16	0.08	0.1333	1.32
2024-08-23	0.08	0.1253	1.27
2024-08-30	0.16	0.1213	1.24
2024-09-06	0.08	0.116	1.20
2024-09-13	0.08	0.112	1.17
2024-09-20	0.16	0.112	1.15
2024-09-27	0.16	0.112	1.12
2024-10-04	0.08	0.1067	1.10
2024-10-11	0.08	0.1027	1.08
2024-10-18	0.08	0.0987	1.06
2024-10-25	0.08	0.0973	1.04
2024-11-01	0.08	0.096	1.02
2024-11-08	0.08	0.0933	1.00
2024-11-15	0.08	0.0933	0.9859
2024-11-22	0.08	0.0933	0.9674
2024-11-29	0.08	0.0933	0.9485
2024-12-06	0.08	0.092	0.9295
2024-12-13	0.08	0.092	0.911
2024-12-20	0.096	0.0925	0.8937
2024-12-27	0.08	0.0912	0.8757
2025-01-03	0.08	0.0912	0.8573
2025-01-10	0.072	0.0909	0.8388
2025-01-17	0.064	0.0904	0.8187
2025-01-24	0.072	0.0901	0.8012
2025-01-31	0.064	0.0896	0.7934
2025-02-07	0.064	0.0891	0.7864
2025-02-14	0.064	0.0885	0.7806
2025-02-21	0.056	0.0877	0.7748
2025-02-28	0.048	0.084	0.7695
2025-03-07	0.048	0.0829	0.7636
2025-03-14	0.056	0.0821	0.7573
2025-03-21	0.056	0.0813	0.7492
2025-03-28	0.056	0.0779	0.7424
2025-04-04	0.056	0.0771	0.7356
2025-04-11	0.056	0.0763	0.7293
2025-04-18	0.056	0.0728	0.723
2025-04-25	0.056	0.0693	0.7172
2025-05-02	0.056	0.0685	0.7114
2025-05-09	0.056	0.0677	0.7035
2025-05-16	0.056	0.0669	0.689
2025-05-23	0.056	0.0661	0.6714
2025-05-30	0.056	0.0653	0.6528
2025-06-06	0.056	0.0645	0.6378
2025-06-13	0.056	0.0637	0.6243
2025-06-20	0.056	0.0629	0.6134
2025-06-27	0.056	0.0621	0.603
2025-07-04	0.056	0.0613	0.5869
2025-07-11	0.056	0.0605	0.5719
2025-07-18	0.056	0.0592	0.5569
2025-07-25	0.056	0.0584	0.5424
2025-08-01	0.056	0.0576	0.5227
2025-08-08	0.056	0.0571	0.5051
2025-08-15	0.056	0.0568	0.4773
2025-08-22	0.056	0.0563	0.4423
2025-08-29	0.056	0.056	0.4195
2025-09-05	0.032	0.0549	0.3977
2025-09-12	0.04	0.0541	0.3779
2025-09-19	0.032	0.0533	0.3582
2025-09-26	0.048	0.0533	0.339
2025-10-03	0.048	0.0533	0.329
2025-10-10	0.056	0.0533	0.3207
2025-10-17	0.104	0.0549	0.3142
2025-10-24	0.096	0.0563	0.3071
2025-10-31	0.064	0.0565	0.3018
2025-11-07	0.064	0.0568	0.2976
2025-11-14	0.064	0.0571	0.2929
2025-11-21	0.064	0.0573	0.2887
2025-11-28	0.056	0.0573	0.2845
2025-12-05	0.043	0.0569	0.2806
2025-12-12	0.0341	0.0562	0.2768
2025-12-19	0.012	0.0547	0.2727
2025-12-26	0.01	0.0532	0.2684
2026-01-02	0.011	0.0517	0.2639
2026-01-09	0.01	0.0501	0.2593
2026-01-16	0.009	0.0486	0.2548
2026-01-23	0.013	0.0471	0.2477
2026-01-30	0.011	0.0456	0.2413
2026-02-06	0.011	0.0441	0.2353
2026-02-13	0.011	0.0426	0.2292
2026-02-20	0.011	0.0411	0.2236
2026-02-27	0.011	0.0396	0.2183
2026-03-06	0.011	0.0381	0.2127
2026-03-13	0.011	0.0366	0.2079
2026-03-20	0.009	0.0351	0.2034
2026-03-27	0.009	0.0335	0.1988
2026-04-03	0.009	0.0327	0.1942
2026-04-10	0.009	0.0317	0.1897
2026-04-17	0.009	0.0309	0.1851
2026-04-24	0.01	0.0297	0.1801
2026-05-01	0.009	0.0284	0.1758
2026-05-08	0.009	0.0268	0.1717
2026-05-15	0.011	0.0237	0.1677
2026-05-22	0.01	0.0208	0.1636
2026-05-29	0.011	0.0191	0.1591
2026-06-05	0.008	0.0172	0.1551
2026-06-12	0.009	0.0154	0.151
2026-06-19	0.009	0.0135	0.147
2026-06-26	0.009	0.012	0.1434
2026-07-03	0.0085	0.0108	0.1399
2026-07-10	0.008	0.00995	0.1358
2026-07-17	0.008	0.009817	0.1323
2026-07-24	0.007	0.009717	0.1282
2026-07-31	0.007	0.009583	0.1247
2026-08-07	0.008	0.009517	0.1212
2026-08-14	0.008	0.009483	0.1176
2026-08-21	0.008	0.009317	0.1146
2026-08-28	0.011	0.009317	0.1116
2026-09-04	0.01	0.009283	0.1086
2026-09-11	0.01	0.00925	0.1051
2026-09-18	0.008	0.00915	0.102
2026-09-25	0.01	0.009117	0.099
2026-10-02	0.009	0.00905	0.0965
2026-10-09	0.01	0.009017	0.094

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewBelow AUD 0.009 -10.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewAbove AUD 0.01 0.0% from the latest close · Forming

This is the forming swing’s current endpoint. It can move as the swing extends; it is not a fixed stop price.

Earlier confirmed swing AUD 0.011

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-08-28

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 0.0%

13-week return 25.0%

26-week return 11.1%

52-week return -82.1%

From 52-week high -90.4%

26-week volatility 99.2%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Below AUD 0.009

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above AUD 0.01

This is a forming correction endpoint and can move. Use the earlier confirmed swings for wider context.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 8.0% reversalBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

67/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 5.0% reversalBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

67/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 3.5% reversalBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

67/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size · Leading33%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingStrategic swing size33%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingTactical swing size33%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

33% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.009 Fails above 0.01 Count stability Low · 0/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 0.008; Wave B 0.009.

PassWave C moves in the direction of Wave AA length 0.00; C length 0.00.

GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 0.50× Wave A.

Strategic degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 11.1%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.009

Pivot from 2026-10-02

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.011

Pivot from 2026-08-28

30-week trend 0.009017

Price is 10.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.094

Price is -89.4% from Fair Value

52-week range position 3%

0.007 low · 0.104 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 3 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

57% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 3 readings support the selected direction; 4 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

10.9% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Cresting

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-47.7

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+2.4

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.5

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-9.1

Balance of readings Constructive

4 constructive, 3 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+102 weeks

10w bandEstimated 12w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 23.0 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 15w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 46w · Troughing

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 6.0 cycles of history

80w bandEstimated 98w · Troughing

65/100Repeat fit · 2.8 cycles of history

Trough: 21 Apr–22 Sep 2028 (+80–102w)Crest: 20 Aug–21 Jan 2028 (+45–67w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is near a high and starting to turn. Watch whether price and momentum also weaken.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 65/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseCresting

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 rising alignment · 0/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low91 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high56 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough3w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough3w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 46w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough25w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle80w / 98w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score65/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough7w

Possible next low80–102w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 99.9% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 90.4% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Cycle rollover
Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has low recent stability.
Trend extension
Price is 10.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

Downside risk check

Watch

33/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension8/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover15/15

Multi-cycle risk0/15

Count instability10/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.007

52-week high0.104

Annualised volatility99.2%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range9.6%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-99.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume176%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

48% constructive

11 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

17% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	135	57%	2.0%	1.4%	-11.8% to 16.0%
13 weeks	79	58%	4.0%	2.9%	-16.5% to 30.9%
26 weeks	65	66%	8.3%	5.9%	-17.8% to 58.3%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 41 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

42 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

0.0%

13w

-10.6%

26w

-50.0%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	41	15%	0.0%	-50.0% to 100.0%
13 weeks	34	24%	-10.6%	-60.0% to 85.7%
26 weeks	30	0%	-50.0%	-83.9% to -20.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2026-05-08	Confirmed	Low	0.009	-10.0%	2 weeks
2026-05-15	Confirmed	High	0.011	22.2%	1 weeks
2026-05-22	Confirmed	Low	0.01	-9.1%	1 weeks
2026-05-29	Confirmed	High	0.011	10.0%	1 weeks
2026-06-05	Confirmed	Low	0.008	-27.3%	1 weeks
2026-06-26	Confirmed	High	0.009	12.5%	3 weeks
2026-07-31	Confirmed	Low	0.007	-22.2%	5 weeks
2026-08-28	Confirmed	High	0.011	57.1%	4 weeks
2026-09-18	Confirmed	Low	0.008	-27.3%	3 weeks
2026-09-25	Confirmed	High	0.01	25.0%	1 weeks
2026-10-02	Confirmed	Low	0.009	-10.0%	1 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	High	0.01	11.1%	1 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

CNJWave & cycle analysis

A rebound is being tested

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

48% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

48% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗