ASX · Consumer Defensive · Weekly analysis

EDUWave & cycle analysis

EDU Holdings Limited

Latest close AUD 1.07 Week ending 25 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

90/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible Wave 3 advancing

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 2 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-06	0.1365	0.1533	0.1504
2023-10-13	0.1365	0.1523	0.1504
2023-10-20	0.1365	0.1522	0.1505
2023-10-27	0.1365	0.1517	0.1505
2023-11-03	0.1365	0.1512	0.1505
2023-11-10	0.1412	0.1506	0.1505
2023-11-17	0.1318	0.15	0.1503
2023-11-24	0.1318	0.1494	0.1502
2023-12-01	0.1459	0.1494	0.1501
2023-12-08	0.1318	0.1484	0.1499
2023-12-15	0.1412	0.1478	0.1495
2023-12-22	0.1318	0.1469	0.1491
2023-12-29	0.1318	0.1459	0.1487
2024-01-05	0.1318	0.145	0.1482
2024-01-12	0.1271	0.1439	0.1477
2024-01-19	0.1271	0.1428	0.1472
2024-01-26	0.1083	0.141	0.1467
2024-02-02	0.1177	0.1395	0.1463
2024-02-09	0.1271	0.1384	0.1459
2024-02-16	0.1177	0.1373	0.1455
2024-02-23	0.113	0.1359	0.145
2024-03-01	0.0941	0.1343	0.1445
2024-03-08	0.0941	0.1324	0.1439
2024-03-15	0.0932	0.1305	0.1434
2024-03-22	0.0941	0.1289	0.1429
2024-03-29	0.0941	0.1271	0.1423
2024-04-05	0.0932	0.1251	0.1418
2024-04-12	0.0941	0.1233	0.1412
2024-04-19	0.0923	0.1213	0.1407
2024-04-26	0.0923	0.1194	0.1402
2024-05-03	0.0932	0.1179	0.1397
2024-05-10	0.0932	0.1165	0.1393
2024-05-17	0.0932	0.115	0.1389
2024-05-24	0.0932	0.1136	0.1385
2024-05-31	0.0913	0.1121	0.1383
2024-06-07	0.0857	0.1102	0.138
2024-06-14	0.0941	0.109	0.1376
2024-06-21	0.0941	0.1077	0.1373
2024-06-28	0.0894	0.1058	0.1369
2024-07-05	0.0875	0.1044	0.1366
2024-07-12	0.0875	0.1026	0.1362
2024-07-19	0.0819	0.1009	0.1359
2024-07-26	0.081	0.0992	0.1355
2024-08-02	0.0791	0.0975	0.1352
2024-08-09	0.0791	0.0959	0.1349
2024-08-16	0.0791	0.0943	0.1346
2024-08-23	0.0791	0.0933	0.1343
2024-08-30	0.0847	0.0922	0.1341
2024-09-06	0.0847	0.0908	0.1339
2024-09-13	0.0565	0.0887	0.1335
2024-09-20	0.0546	0.0868	0.1332
2024-09-27	0.0659	0.0859	0.1329
2024-10-04	0.0659	0.0849	0.1324
2024-10-11	0.0659	0.084	0.132
2024-10-18	0.0659	0.0831	0.1316
2024-10-25	0.0725	0.0823	0.1312
2024-11-01	0.0678	0.0815	0.1309
2024-11-08	0.0678	0.0806	0.1306
2024-11-15	0.0725	0.08	0.1303
2024-11-22	0.0847	0.0797	0.13
2024-11-29	0.0847	0.0794	0.1297
2024-12-06	0.0847	0.0791	0.1294
2024-12-13	0.0847	0.0789	0.129
2024-12-20	0.0847	0.0786	0.1286
2024-12-27	0.0847	0.0784	0.1283
2025-01-03	0.0894	0.0785	0.1279
2025-01-10	0.0941	0.0785	0.1275
2025-01-17	0.0941	0.0785	0.1271
2025-01-24	0.1035	0.0789	0.1268
2025-01-31	0.113	0.0798	0.1265
2025-02-07	0.1083	0.0805	0.1262
2025-02-14	0.113	0.0815	0.1258
2025-02-21	0.1318	0.0832	0.1255
2025-02-28	0.1694	0.0862	0.1258
2025-03-07	0.1553	0.0888	0.126
2025-03-14	0.1365	0.0907	0.1261
2025-03-21	0.1365	0.0926	0.1261
2025-03-28	0.1388	0.0944	0.1261
2025-04-04	0.1388	0.0962	0.1261
2025-04-11	0.1365	0.0989	0.1261
2025-04-18	0.1318	0.1014	0.1261
2025-04-25	0.1224	0.1033	0.126
2025-05-02	0.1365	0.1057	0.126
2025-05-09	0.1318	0.1079	0.126
2025-05-16	0.16	0.111	0.1259
2025-05-23	0.1742	0.1144	0.1262
2025-05-30	0.2542	0.1206	0.1269
2025-06-06	0.2589	0.127	0.1277
2025-06-13	0.2495	0.1329	0.1285
2025-06-20	0.3201	0.1407	0.1298
2025-06-27	0.3106	0.1483	0.131
2025-07-04	0.3295	0.1564	0.1323
2025-07-11	0.3342	0.1647	0.1337
2025-07-18	0.3436	0.1734	0.1351
2025-07-25	0.3954	0.1837	0.1368
2025-08-01	0.4189	0.1947	0.1387
2025-08-08	0.4424	0.2063	0.1406
2025-08-15	0.4424	0.2179	0.1426
2025-08-22	0.4471	0.2294	0.1447
2025-08-29	0.466	0.2411	0.1468
2025-09-05	0.5181	0.2548	0.1493
2025-09-12	0.4941	0.2675	0.1515
2025-09-19	0.5229	0.2805	0.154
2025-09-26	0.5661	0.2938	0.1567
2025-10-03	0.6141	0.3091	0.1597
2025-10-10	0.71	0.3282	0.1633
2025-10-17	0.6476	0.3452	0.1665
2025-10-24	0.6093	0.3609	0.1694
2025-10-31	0.5661	0.3751	0.172
2025-11-07	0.5517	0.389	0.1745
2025-11-14	0.6524	0.4063	0.1775
2025-11-21	0.5949	0.4221	0.1802
2025-11-28	0.5805	0.4369	0.1829
2025-12-05	0.7388	0.4571	0.1866
2025-12-12	0.9019	0.4818	0.1913
2025-12-19	0.8059	0.5029	0.1954
2025-12-26	0.7916	0.5208	0.1994
2026-01-02	0.7868	0.5384	0.2034
2026-01-09	0.9019	0.5602	0.2082
2026-01-16	0.8203	0.5768	0.2124
2026-01-23	0.6716	0.5889	0.2156
2026-01-30	0.7532	0.603	0.2192
2026-02-06	0.6141	0.6123	0.222
2026-02-13	0.6428	0.6223	0.2249
2026-02-20	0.734	0.6336	0.2286
2026-02-27	0.7196	0.6436	0.2323
2026-03-06	0.65	0.6505	0.2356
2026-03-13	0.625	0.6566	0.2385
2026-03-20	0.63	0.6627	0.2416
2026-03-27	0.70	0.6705	0.2452
2026-04-03	0.755	0.6784	0.249
2026-04-10	0.87	0.6909	0.2536
2026-04-17	0.85	0.7018	0.2581
2026-04-24	0.885	0.7125	0.2628
2026-05-01	0.845	0.7202	0.2673
2026-05-08	0.755	0.7217	0.2711
2026-05-15	0.87	0.7291	0.2756
2026-05-22	0.875	0.7379	0.2802
2026-05-29	1.01	0.7527	0.2857
2026-06-05	0.96	0.7663	0.2908
2026-06-12	1.01	0.7783	0.2962
2026-06-19	1.04	0.7933	0.3019
2026-06-26	1.03	0.8082	0.3075
2026-07-03	1.06	0.819	0.3132
2026-07-10	0.95	0.8206	0.3183
2026-07-17	0.94	0.825	0.3233
2026-07-24	0.99	0.8316	0.3287
2026-07-31	1.08	0.8412	0.3347
2026-08-07	1.18	0.8505	0.3413
2026-08-14	1.14	0.8611	0.3476
2026-08-21	1.04	0.8734	0.3534
2026-08-28	1.07	0.884	0.3593
2026-09-04	1.11	0.9005	0.3654
2026-09-11	1.10	0.9159	0.3715
2026-09-18	1.10	0.9281	0.3776
2026-09-25	1.07	0.9398	0.3835

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewAbove AUD 1.07 0.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewBelow AUD 0.6141 -42.6% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing AUD 0.6141

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-02-06

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 0.0%

13-week return 3.9%

26-week return 52.9%

52-week return 89.0%

From 52-week high -12.7%

26-week volatility 51.4%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Above AUD 1.07

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Below AUD 0.6141

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

2 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 24.0% reversalFive-wave advance mature

95/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 16.0% reversalPossible Wave 3 advancing

74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 11.2% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

58/100 pattern fit

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancingPrimary swing size · Leading14%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size8%

Five-wave advance matureStrategic swing size79%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible Wave 3 advancing

14% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 1.07 Fails below 0.6141 Count stability Moderate · 68/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.5517; Wave 2 0.6141.

PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.9019; Wave 3 1.07.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 82% of Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.30× Wave 1.

Strategic degreeFive-wave advance mature

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 74.3%

33 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.6141

Pivot from 2026-02-06

Nearest confirmed resistance -

Price is above prior confirmed highs

30-week trend 0.9398

Price is 13.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.3835

Price is 179.0% from Fair Value

52-week range position 78%

0.5085 low · 1.22 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

13.9% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Cresting

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack

Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+29.8

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+19.6

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.0

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+48.7

Balance of readings Constructive

5 constructive, 2 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This supports the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This supports the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 25 Sep 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+31 weeks

10w bandEstimated 12w · Falling

30/100Repeat fit · 23.0 cycles of history

Trough: 6 Nov–4 Dec 2026 (+6–10w)Crest: 23 Oct–20 Nov 2026 (+4–8w)

20w bandEstimated 15w · Falling

51/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history

Trough: 2 Oct–11 Dec 2026 (+1–11w)Crest: 23 Oct–1 Jan 2027 (+4–14w)

40w bandEstimated 30w · Cresting

35/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history

Trough: 11 Dec–30 Apr 2027 (+11–31w)Crest: 20 Nov–9 Apr 2027 (+8–28w)

80w bandEstimated 60w · Cresting

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 4.6 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is near a high and starting to turn. Watch whether price and momentum also weaken.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 51/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseCresting

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

0/100 rising alignment · 100/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low6 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high9 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score30/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough4w

Possible next low6–10w

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score51/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough9w

Possible next low1–11w

Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score35/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough9w

Possible next low11–31w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough71w

Possible next low-

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 9.3% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 12.7% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Cycle rollover
Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.
Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.
Trend extension
Price is 13.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

Downside risk check

Watch

47/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension12/20

Range position2/15

Cycle rollover15/15

Multi-cycle risk15/15

Count instability3/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.5085

52-week high1.22

Annualised volatility51.4%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range5.8%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-9.3%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume164%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

43% constructive

10 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

13% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Check the upcoming earnings date

Earnings: 2026-10-27 · about 5w away

Options: Bullish · 54/100 conviction · ±7.3% expected move

Stored options pressure is bullish with 54/100 conviction.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	524	46%	-0.3%	-0.5%	-9.8% to 10.1%
13 weeks	203	49%	-0.2%	-0.9%	-18.3% to 20.7%
26 weeks	120	48%	-1.0%	-1.3%	-24.8% to 29.5%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +6.9% across 98 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

99 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

6.9%

13w

24.6%

26w

42.7%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	98	62%	6.9%	-31.9% to 96.4%
13 weeks	89	76%	24.6%	-30.7% to 235.7%
26 weeks	79	77%	42.7%	-25.0% to 420.2%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-09-25 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2023-03-24	Confirmed	Low	0.1412	-26.8%	5 weeks
2023-07-07	Confirmed	High	0.1647	16.7%	15 weeks
2024-01-26	Confirmed	Low	0.1083	-34.3%	29 weeks
2024-02-09	Confirmed	High	0.1271	17.4%	2 weeks
2024-09-20	Confirmed	Low	0.0546	-57.0%	32 weeks
2025-02-28	Confirmed	High	0.1694	210.3%	23 weeks
2025-04-25	Confirmed	Low	0.1224	-27.8%	8 weeks
2025-10-10	Confirmed	High	0.71	480.2%	24 weeks
2025-11-07	Confirmed	Low	0.5517	-22.3%	4 weeks
2026-01-09	Confirmed	High	0.9019	63.5%	9 weeks
2026-02-06	Confirmed	Low	0.6141	-31.9%	4 weeks
2026-09-25	Forming	High	1.07	74.3%	33 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

EDUWave & cycle analysis

The wave count points to an advance

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

43% constructive

Check the upcoming earnings date

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

43% constructive

Check the upcoming earnings date

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗