ASX · Industrials · Weekly analysis

MOVWave & cycle analysis

MOVE Logistics Group Limited

Latest close AUD 0.18 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 223 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

95/100 Setup score 95/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible Wave 3 advancing

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

6 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 1 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The leading count changed 1 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-20	0.60	0.803	0.959
2023-10-27	0.60	0.7883	0.9538
2023-11-03	0.60	0.7737	0.9487
2023-11-10	0.61	0.7593	0.9439
2023-11-17	0.60	0.7443	0.9392
2023-11-24	0.60	0.736	0.9345
2023-12-01	0.59	0.7247	0.9299
2023-12-08	0.59	0.7163	0.9253
2023-12-15	0.53	0.7047	0.9201
2023-12-22	0.53	0.6923	0.9151
2023-12-29	0.525	0.6803	0.9101
2024-01-05	0.525	0.6695	0.9052
2024-01-12	0.525	0.6587	0.9004
2024-01-19	0.525	0.6478	0.8958
2024-01-26	0.525	0.6387	0.8913
2024-02-02	0.50	0.628	0.8866
2024-02-09	0.45	0.6157	0.8814
2024-02-16	0.45	0.6045	0.8763
2024-02-23	0.40	0.5922	0.8708
2024-03-01	0.48	0.5828	0.8663
2024-03-08	0.50	0.574	0.8621
2024-03-15	0.50	0.5658	0.858
2024-03-22	0.50	0.5592	0.8541
2024-03-29	0.50	0.5525	0.8502
2024-04-05	0.50	0.5475	0.8464
2024-04-12	0.50	0.5425	0.8426
2024-04-19	0.50	0.5378	0.839
2024-04-26	0.50	0.5332	0.8354
2024-05-03	0.50	0.5285	0.8319
2024-05-10	0.32	0.5192	0.8266
2024-05-17	0.36	0.5112	0.8219
2024-05-24	0.37	0.5035	0.8173
2024-05-31	0.35	0.4952	0.8126
2024-06-07	0.35	0.4865	0.8081
2024-06-14	0.30	0.4765	0.8031
2024-06-21	0.30	0.4665	0.7982
2024-06-28	0.30	0.4568	0.7934
2024-07-05	0.30	0.4472	0.7887
2024-07-12	0.30	0.4395	0.7841
2024-07-19	0.23	0.4295	0.7789
2024-07-26	0.24	0.42	0.7739
2024-08-02	0.24	0.4105	0.769
2024-08-09	0.20	0.3997	0.7639
2024-08-16	0.325	0.393	0.7599
2024-08-23	0.33	0.3865	0.7561
2024-08-30	0.33	0.3808	0.7523
2024-09-06	0.33	0.3768	0.7486
2024-09-13	0.33	0.3728	0.745
2024-09-20	0.33	0.3705	0.7414
2024-09-27	0.33	0.3655	0.7379
2024-10-04	0.33	0.3598	0.7344
2024-10-11	0.33	0.3542	0.731
2024-10-18	0.21	0.3445	0.7267
2024-10-25	0.175	0.3337	0.7221
2024-11-01	0.16	0.3223	0.7175
2024-11-08	0.16	0.311	0.713
2024-11-15	0.16	0.2997	0.7085
2024-11-22	0.14	0.2877	0.704
2024-11-29	0.175	0.2768	0.6998
2024-12-06	0.175	0.272	0.6956
2024-12-13	0.175	0.2658	0.6916
2024-12-20	0.175	0.2593	0.6876
2024-12-27	0.175	0.2535	0.6836
2025-01-03	0.175	0.2477	0.6797
2025-01-10	0.175	0.2435	0.6759
2025-01-17	0.175	0.2393	0.6721
2025-01-24	0.175	0.2352	0.6684
2025-01-31	0.175	0.231	0.6648
2025-02-07	0.175	0.2268	0.6612
2025-02-14	0.21	0.2262	0.6579
2025-02-21	0.21	0.2252	0.6546
2025-02-28	0.21	0.2242	0.6514
2025-03-07	0.21	0.2245	0.6483
2025-03-14	0.21	0.2207	0.6452
2025-03-21	0.22	0.217	0.6422
2025-03-28	0.215	0.2132	0.6392
2025-04-04	0.215	0.2093	0.6362
2025-04-11	0.22	0.2057	0.6334
2025-04-18	0.22	0.202	0.6305
2025-04-25	0.22	0.1983	0.6278
2025-05-02	0.22	0.1947	0.625
2025-05-09	0.22	0.191	0.6223
2025-05-16	0.22	0.1913	0.6196
2025-05-23	0.22	0.1928	0.617
2025-05-30	0.22	0.1948	0.6143
2025-06-06	0.22	0.1968	0.6118
2025-06-13	0.22	0.1988	0.6092
2025-06-20	0.22	0.2015	0.6067
2025-06-27	0.22	0.203	0.6042
2025-07-04	0.215	0.2043	0.5991
2025-07-11	0.215	0.2057	0.5938
2025-07-18	0.215	0.207	0.5886
2025-07-25	0.195	0.2077	0.5834
2025-08-01	0.195	0.2083	0.5781
2025-08-08	0.20	0.2092	0.5717
2025-08-15	0.205	0.2102	0.565
2025-08-22	0.21	0.2113	0.5587
2025-08-29	0.215	0.2127	0.5526
2025-09-05	0.215	0.214	0.5465
2025-09-12	0.215	0.2142	0.5404
2025-09-19	0.215	0.2143	0.5343
2025-09-26	0.215	0.2145	0.5282
2025-10-03	0.19	0.2138	0.5221
2025-10-10	0.19	0.2132	0.5159
2025-10-17	0.19	0.2122	0.5098
2025-10-24	0.165	0.2105	0.5036
2025-10-31	0.175	0.2092	0.4976
2025-11-07	0.175	0.2077	0.4916
2025-11-14	0.19	0.2067	0.4858
2025-11-21	0.17	0.205	0.4798
2025-11-28	0.17	0.2033	0.4739
2025-12-05	0.17	0.2017	0.4679
2025-12-12	0.165	0.1998	0.4626
2025-12-19	0.165	0.198	0.4571
2025-12-26	0.16	0.196	0.4515
2026-01-02	0.16	0.194	0.4459
2026-01-09	0.23	0.1943	0.441
2026-01-16	0.23	0.1947	0.4359
2026-01-23	0.23	0.195	0.4309
2026-01-30	0.23	0.1955	0.4258
2026-02-06	0.24	0.1963	0.4208
2026-02-13	0.24	0.1972	0.4158
2026-02-20	0.21	0.1977	0.4105
2026-02-27	0.19	0.1975	0.4051
2026-03-06	0.19	0.1972	0.3997
2026-03-13	0.19	0.1967	0.3944
2026-03-20	0.19	0.196	0.3889
2026-03-27	0.195	0.1953	0.3835
2026-04-03	0.195	0.1947	0.3781
2026-04-10	0.195	0.194	0.3727
2026-04-17	0.195	0.1933	0.3672
2026-04-24	0.195	0.1927	0.363
2026-05-01	0.14	0.191	0.3579
2026-05-08	0.15	0.1897	0.3535
2026-05-15	0.15	0.1883	0.3488
2026-05-22	0.15	0.1878	0.344
2026-05-29	0.16	0.1873	0.3394
2026-06-05	0.16	0.1868	0.3349
2026-06-12	0.16	0.1858	0.3305
2026-06-19	0.16	0.1855	0.3261
2026-06-26	0.145	0.1847	0.3219
2026-07-03	0.145	0.1838	0.3176
2026-07-10	0.145	0.1832	0.3132
2026-07-17	0.145	0.1825	0.3091
2026-07-24	0.15	0.1822	0.3052
2026-07-31	0.15	0.1818	0.3012
2026-08-07	0.15	0.1792	0.2973
2026-08-14	0.15	0.1765	0.2935
2026-08-21	0.15	0.1738	0.29
2026-08-28	0.15	0.1712	0.2864
2026-09-04	0.17	0.1688	0.2834
2026-09-11	0.17	0.1665	0.2803
2026-09-18	0.18	0.1655	0.2773
2026-09-25	0.18	0.1652	0.2744
2026-10-02	0.18	0.1648	0.2714
2026-10-09	0.18	0.1645	0.2688

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewAbove AUD 0.18 0.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewBelow AUD 0.145 -19.4% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing AUD 0.145

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-07-17

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 5.9%

13-week return 24.1%

26-week return -7.7%

52-week return -5.3%

From 52-week high -37.9%

26-week volatility 49.1%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Above AUD 0.18

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Below AUD 0.145

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 8.0% reversalPossible Wave 3 advancing

74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 5.0% reversalPossible Wave 3 advancing

74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 3.5% reversalPossible Wave 3 advancing

74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancingPrimary swing size · Leading34%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size32%

Possible Wave 3 advancingStrategic swing size34%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible Wave 3 advancing

34% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.18 Fails below 0.145 Count stability High · 84/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.14; Wave 2 0.145.

PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.16; Wave 3 0.18.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 75% of Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.75× Wave 1.

Strategic degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 24.1%

12 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.145

Pivot from 2026-07-17

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.24

Pivot from 2026-02-13

30-week trend 0.1645

Price is 9.4% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.2688

Price is -33.0% from Fair Value

52-week range position 27%

0.14 low · 0.29 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 1 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

86% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 6 readings support the selected direction; 1 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

9.4% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack

Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+3.0

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+42.1

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.9

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-5.3

Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 1 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This supports the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This challenges the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+87 weeks

10w bandEstimated 12w · Cresting

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 18.6 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 24w · Rising

22/100Repeat fit · 9.3 cycles of history

Trough: 13 Nov–5 Feb 2027 (+5–17w)Crest: 23 Oct–15 Jan 2027 (+2–14w)

40w bandEstimated 30w · Rising

10/100Repeat fit · 7.4 cycles of history

Trough: 11 Dec–30 Apr 2027 (+9–29w)Crest: 6 Nov–26 Mar 2027 (+4–24w)

80w bandEstimated 94w · Troughing

13/100Repeat fit · 2.4 cycles of history

Trough: 2 Jul–11 Feb 2028 (+38–70w)Crest: 29 Oct–9 Jun 2028 (+55–87w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 22/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 rising alignment · 25/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high8 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough14w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 24w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score22/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough13w

Possible next low5–17w

Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score10/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough11w

Possible next low9–29w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 94w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score13/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough40w

Possible next low38–70w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 85.6% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 37.9% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Trend extension
Price is 9.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has high recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

11/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension5/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk4/15

Count instability2/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.14

52-week high0.29

Annualised volatility49.1%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range0.7%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-85.6%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume0%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That agrees with this report’s upward interpretation.

54% constructive

13 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

29% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Check the upcoming earnings date

Earnings: 2026-11-24 · about 7w away

Options: Mixed · 16/100 conviction · ±10.3% expected move

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	137	54%	0.7%	-0.4%	-9.6% to 9.5%
13 weeks	76	63%	4.5%	3.6%	-15.5% to 21.2%
26 weeks	64	63%	5.5%	6.6%	-28.4% to 32.3%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 21 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

22 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

0.0%

13w

-13.3%

26w

-29.2%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	21	29%	0.0%	-51.5% to 5.9%
13 weeks	20	15%	-13.3%	-47.0% to 4.8%
26 weeks	20	10%	-29.2%	-37.5% to 2.4%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality95/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 86/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2024-11-22	Confirmed	Low	0.14	-57.6%	6 weeks
2025-06-27	Confirmed	High	0.22	57.1%	31 weeks
2025-08-01	Confirmed	Low	0.195	-11.4%	5 weeks
2025-09-26	Confirmed	High	0.215	10.3%	8 weeks
2025-10-24	Confirmed	Low	0.165	-23.3%	4 weeks
2025-11-14	Confirmed	High	0.19	15.2%	3 weeks
2026-01-02	Confirmed	Low	0.16	-15.8%	7 weeks
2026-02-13	Confirmed	High	0.24	50.0%	6 weeks
2026-05-01	Confirmed	Low	0.14	-41.7%	11 weeks
2026-06-19	Confirmed	High	0.16	14.3%	7 weeks
2026-07-17	Confirmed	Low	0.145	-9.4%	4 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	High	0.18	24.1%	12 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

MOVWave & cycle analysis

The wave count points to an advance

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

54% constructive

Check the upcoming earnings date

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

54% constructive

Check the upcoming earnings date

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗