LSE · Basic Materials · Weekly analysis

AMGWave & cycle analysis

Atlas Metals Group plc

Latest close GBP 0.0575 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

75/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countWave + Hurst trough confluence

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

4 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 3 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 2 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in GBP · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-20	0.058	0.0695	0.3045
2023-10-27	0.053	0.069	0.2997
2023-11-03	0.053	0.0684	0.2946
2023-11-10	0.053	0.0677	0.2895
2023-11-17	0.053	0.067	0.2844
2023-11-24	0.053	0.0663	0.2793
2023-12-01	0.053	0.0655	0.2745
2023-12-08	0.05	0.0647	0.2694
2023-12-15	0.05	0.0639	0.2646
2023-12-22	0.048	0.063	0.2594
2023-12-29	0.048	0.0621	0.2543
2024-01-05	0.048	0.0612	0.2491
2024-01-12	0.048	0.0603	0.2445
2024-01-19	0.05	0.0594	0.2402
2024-01-26	0.05	0.0586	0.2361
2024-02-02	0.055	0.0579	0.2319
2024-02-09	0.055	0.0575	0.2276
2024-02-16	0.055	0.0572	0.2233
2024-02-23	0.053	0.0568	0.2191
2024-03-01	0.043	0.056	0.2151
2024-03-08	0.043	0.0553	0.2109
2024-03-15	0.038	0.0544	0.2064
2024-03-22	0.043	0.0537	0.2021
2024-03-29	0.045	0.0531	0.198
2024-04-05	0.053	0.0526	0.1937
2024-04-12	0.073	0.0527	0.1897
2024-04-19	0.073	0.0527	0.1861
2024-04-26	0.075	0.0531	0.1816
2024-05-03	0.06	0.0531	0.1768
2024-05-10	0.085	0.0539	0.1734
2024-05-17	0.105	0.0555	0.1704
2024-05-24	0.14	0.0584	0.1675
2024-05-31	0.17	0.0623	0.1648
2024-06-07	0.17	0.0662	0.1621
2024-06-14	0.17	0.0701	0.1598
2024-06-21	0.30	0.0783	0.1582
2024-06-28	0.31	0.0869	0.1565
2024-07-05	0.31	0.0955	0.1548
2024-07-12	0.275	0.103	0.1532
2024-07-19	0.305	0.1116	0.152
2024-07-26	0.255	0.1185	0.1506
2024-08-02	0.215	0.1241	0.1488
2024-08-09	0.24	0.1305	0.1469
2024-08-16	0.29	0.1385	0.1457
2024-08-23	0.28	0.1461	0.1443
2024-08-30	0.285	0.1538	0.1426
2024-09-06	0.33	0.163	0.1411
2024-09-13	0.422	0.1752	0.1404
2024-09-20	0.49	0.1898	0.1404
2024-09-27	0.455	0.2035	0.1403
2024-10-04	0.45	0.2171	0.1404
2024-10-11	0.46	0.2311	0.1405
2024-10-18	0.50	0.2464	0.141
2024-10-25	0.485	0.261	0.1415
2024-11-01	0.44	0.2739	0.1417
2024-11-08	0.33	0.2825	0.1411
2024-11-15	0.525	0.2976	0.1423
2024-11-22	0.47	0.3107	0.1436
2024-11-29	0.48	0.3247	0.1451
2024-12-06	0.435	0.3364	0.1462
2024-12-13	0.365	0.3451	0.1467
2024-12-20	0.265	0.3492	0.1466
2024-12-27	0.11	0.3472	0.1456
2025-01-03	0.1325	0.346	0.1447
2025-01-10	0.105	0.3438	0.1432
2025-01-17	0.095	0.337	0.1419
2025-01-24	0.0925	0.3297	0.1409
2025-01-31	0.1025	0.3228	0.1401
2025-02-07	0.0975	0.3169	0.1394
2025-02-14	0.085	0.3096	0.1386
2025-02-21	0.0925	0.3042	0.138
2025-02-28	0.095	0.3002	0.1375
2025-03-07	0.0925	0.2952	0.137
2025-03-14	0.0925	0.2886	0.1363
2025-03-21	0.0925	0.2824	0.1357
2025-03-28	0.0875	0.2758	0.1352
2025-04-04	0.0875	0.2677	0.1347
2025-04-11	0.0825	0.2564	0.1342
2025-04-18	0.0825	0.2428	0.1338
2025-04-25	0.0825	0.2304	0.1333
2025-05-02	0.0825	0.2182	0.1328
2025-05-09	0.0825	0.2056	0.1323
2025-05-16	0.0775	0.1915	0.1318
2025-05-23	0.08	0.178	0.1313
2025-05-30	0.08	0.166	0.1308
2025-06-06	0.085	0.1578	0.1303
2025-06-13	0.0925	0.1434	0.1299
2025-06-20	0.155	0.1329	0.1299
2025-06-27	0.155	0.1221	0.13
2025-07-04	0.14	0.1122	0.1301
2025-07-11	0.14	0.1048	0.1301
2025-07-18	0.125	0.1001	0.1301
2025-07-25	0.11	0.1001	0.13
2025-08-01	0.11	0.0993	0.1298
2025-08-08	0.11	0.0995	0.1299
2025-08-15	0.10	0.0997	0.1299
2025-08-22	0.10	0.0999	0.1299
2025-08-29	0.10	0.0998	0.1299
2025-09-05	0.10	0.0999	0.13
2025-09-12	0.285	0.1066	0.1312
2025-09-19	0.305	0.1137	0.1326
2025-09-26	0.315	0.121	0.1339
2025-10-03	0.285	0.1274	0.1352
2025-10-10	0.325	0.1352	0.1367
2025-10-17	0.375	0.1446	0.1387
2025-10-24	0.39	0.1547	0.1407
2025-10-31	0.56	0.1704	0.1438
2025-11-07	0.35	0.1793	0.1455
2025-11-14	0.295	0.1864	0.1469
2025-11-21	0.315	0.1942	0.1485
2025-11-28	0.32	0.2021	0.15
2025-12-05	0.19	0.2057	0.1507
2025-12-12	0.185	0.2092	0.1514
2025-12-19	0.1175	0.2105	0.1516
2025-12-26	0.1075	0.2114	0.1517
2026-01-02	0.11	0.2122	0.1519
2026-01-09	0.1025	0.2126	0.1521
2026-01-16	0.105	0.2109	0.1523
2026-01-23	0.105	0.2092	0.1526
2026-01-30	0.1575	0.2098	0.1531
2026-02-06	0.1075	0.2088	0.1534
2026-02-13	0.1075	0.2082	0.1536
2026-02-20	0.0925	0.2076	0.1538
2026-02-27	0.0875	0.2068	0.1539
2026-03-06	0.075	0.2057	0.1539
2026-03-13	0.07	0.2047	0.1539
2026-03-20	0.08	0.204	0.154
2026-03-27	0.0712	0.203	0.154
2026-04-03	0.07	0.202	0.154
2026-04-10	0.0665	0.1948	0.1539
2026-04-17	0.0665	0.1868	0.1539
2026-04-24	0.072	0.1787	0.1539
2026-05-01	0.08	0.1719	0.1539
2026-05-08	0.085	0.1639	0.154
2026-05-15	0.089	0.1543	0.154
2026-05-22	0.0975	0.1446	0.1542
2026-05-29	0.095	0.1291	0.1543
2026-06-05	0.09	0.1204	0.1544
2026-06-12	0.075	0.1131	0.1544
2026-06-19	0.0675	0.1048	0.1544
2026-06-26	0.0675	0.0964	0.1543
2026-07-03	0.069	0.0924	0.1543
2026-07-10	0.071	0.0886	0.1543
2026-07-17	0.0675	0.0869	0.1543
2026-07-24	0.0685	0.0856	0.1543
2026-07-31	0.0675	0.0842	0.1544
2026-08-07	0.0525	0.0825	0.1543
2026-08-14	0.0525	0.0808	0.1542
2026-08-21	0.0475	0.0789	0.1541
2026-08-28	0.0525	0.0754	0.154
2026-09-04	0.051	0.0735	0.1539
2026-09-11	0.051	0.0716	0.1538
2026-09-18	0.0515	0.0702	0.1536
2026-09-25	0.055	0.0692	0.1536
2026-10-02	0.071	0.069	0.1537
2026-10-09	0.0575	0.0686	0.1537

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewAbove GBP 0.071 23.5% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewBelow GBP 0.0475 -17.4% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing GBP 0.0475

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-08-21

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 12.7%

13-week return -19.0%

26-week return -13.5%

52-week return -82.3%

From 52-week high -91.2%

26-week volatility 74.3%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Above GBP 0.071

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Below GBP 0.0475

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 24.0% reversalPossible Wave 2 trough

63/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 16.0% reversalPossible Wave 2 trough

63/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 11.2% reversalPossible Wave 2 trough

63/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size · Leading38%

A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size25%

Possible Wave 2 troughStrategic swing size38%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible Wave 2 trough

38% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.071 Fails below 0.0475 Count stability Moderate · 68/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.0475; Wave 2 0.0575.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 57% of Wave 1.

Strategic degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -19.0%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.0475

Pivot from 2026-08-21

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.071

Pivot from 2026-10-02

30-week trend 0.0686

Price is -16.2% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.1537

Price is -62.6% from Fair Value

52-week range position 2%

0.0467 low · 0.65 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 3 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

57% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 3 readings support the selected direction; 4 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

16.2% below trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-55.5

Market activity

Participation is weak

-15.1

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.6

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-17.9

Balance of readings Defensive

3 constructive, 4 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This challenges the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This challenges the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+62 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Rising

2/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history

Trough: 9 Oct–6 Nov 2026 (+0–4w)Crest: 6 Nov–18 Dec 2026 (+4–10w)

20w bandEstimated 15w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 50w · Troughing

16/100Repeat fit · 5.5 cycles of history

Trough: 21 May–17 Dec 2027 (+32–62w)Crest: 5 Feb–3 Sep 2027 (+17–47w)

80w bandEstimated 60w · Falling

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 4.6 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 16/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 rising alignment · 25/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low47 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high32 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score2/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough7w

Possible next low0–4w

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough7w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score16/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough3w

Possible next low32–62w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough2w

Possible next low-

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 90.0% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 91.2% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Event proximity
Earnings are about 4 week(s) away.
Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

12/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension0/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk4/15

Count instability3/10

Event proximity5/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.0467

52-week high0.65

Annualised volatility74.3%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range15.4%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-90.0%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume103%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That agrees with this report’s upward interpretation.

67% constructive

16 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

17% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Check the upcoming earnings date

Earnings: 2026-11-02 · about 4w away

Options: Bullish · 47/100 conviction · ±3.4% expected move

Earnings are due in about 4 weeks.

Stored options pressure is bullish with 47/100 conviction.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	559	56%	1.5%	0.5%	-10.7% to 15.8%
13 weeks	215	57%	1.9%	1.1%	-16.8% to 28.2%
26 weeks	128	53%	0.6%	-3.3%	-19.2% to 36.9%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -2.3% across 106 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

107 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-2.3%

13w

-1.4%

26w

-4.1%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	106	36%	-2.3%	-34.9% to 215.0%
13 weeks	99	47%	-1.4%	-51.3% to 597.7%
26 weeks	86	44%	-4.1%	-51.2% to 1039.5%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2025-01-03	Confirmed	High	0.1325	20.5%	1 weeks
2025-05-16	Confirmed	Low	0.0775	-41.5%	19 weeks
2025-06-27	Confirmed	High	0.155	100.0%	6 weeks
2025-09-05	Confirmed	Low	0.10	-35.5%	10 weeks
2025-10-31	Confirmed	High	0.56	460.0%	8 weeks
2026-01-09	Confirmed	Low	0.1025	-81.7%	10 weeks
2026-01-30	Confirmed	High	0.1575	53.7%	3 weeks
2026-04-17	Confirmed	Low	0.0665	-57.8%	11 weeks
2026-05-22	Confirmed	High	0.0975	46.6%	5 weeks
2026-08-21	Confirmed	Low	0.0475	-51.3%	13 weeks
2026-10-02	Confirmed	High	0.071	49.5%	6 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	Low	0.0575	-19.0%	1 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

AMGWave & cycle analysis

The wave count points to an advance

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 2 trough

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

67% constructive

Check the upcoming earnings date

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 2 trough

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

67% constructive

Check the upcoming earnings date

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗