LSE · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

MRKWave & cycle analysis

Marks Electrical Group PLC

Latest close GBP 0.49 Week ending 2 Oct 2026 History 257 weeks

Current reading

A rebound is being tested

The wave pattern treats the recent rise as a rebound within a larger decline. A fresh fall is still something to confirm.

52/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

A, B and C label a three-part correction. The outlined last point is still forming.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 3 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in GBP · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-13	0.8933	0.9038	0.8688
2023-10-20	0.8739	0.9062	0.8688
2023-10-27	0.8739	0.9085	0.8689
2023-11-03	0.8714	0.9104	0.8689
2023-11-10	0.903	0.9119	0.8692
2023-11-17	0.8884	0.9136	0.8694
2023-11-24	0.8641	0.9144	0.8694
2023-12-01	0.8671	0.9162	0.8693
2023-12-08	0.8671	0.9171	0.8693
2023-12-15	0.8768	0.9184	0.8694
2023-12-22	0.8817	0.9198	0.8695
2023-12-29	0.8866	0.9214	0.8696
2024-01-05	0.9109	0.9227	0.87
2024-01-12	0.6771	0.9149	0.8683
2024-01-19	0.6966	0.9069	0.8668
2024-01-26	0.7307	0.9001	0.8657
2024-02-02	0.7161	0.8931	0.8644
2024-02-09	0.7209	0.8869	0.8632
2024-02-16	0.7161	0.8807	0.862
2024-02-23	0.7014	0.8725	0.8607
2024-03-01	0.7112	0.8655	0.8594
2024-03-08	0.6917	0.8565	0.8581
2024-03-15	0.6868	0.8473	0.8567
2024-03-22	0.6868	0.8382	0.8553
2024-03-29	0.7014	0.8297	0.8541
2024-04-05	0.6868	0.8207	0.8528
2024-04-12	0.6868	0.8115	0.8515
2024-04-19	0.682	0.8006	0.8502
2024-04-26	0.682	0.789	0.8489
2024-05-03	0.6479	0.776	0.8473
2024-05-10	0.6576	0.7682	0.8459
2024-05-17	0.6576	0.7609	0.8445
2024-05-24	0.6576	0.7537	0.8431
2024-05-31	0.6673	0.7469	0.8418
2024-06-07	0.6722	0.7392	0.8406
2024-06-14	0.6917	0.7327	0.8395
2024-06-21	0.6868	0.7268	0.8384
2024-06-28	0.6917	0.7209	0.8373
2024-07-05	0.6917	0.7151	0.8363
2024-07-12	0.6885	0.7088	0.8352
2024-07-19	0.6885	0.7024	0.8342
2024-07-26	0.6639	0.6949	0.833
2024-08-02	0.6442	0.6861	0.8317
2024-08-09	0.6393	0.6848	0.8304
2024-08-16	0.6491	0.6832	0.8291
2024-08-23	0.6344	0.68	0.8278
2024-08-30	0.6245	0.677	0.8264
2024-09-06	0.6196	0.6736	0.825
2024-09-13	0.6196	0.6704	0.8237
2024-09-20	0.5803	0.6663	0.822
2024-09-27	0.5901	0.6623	0.8205
2024-10-04	0.5901	0.6589	0.819
2024-10-11	0.5901	0.6557	0.8175
2024-10-18	0.5754	0.652	0.816
2024-10-25	0.5655	0.6474	0.8144
2024-11-01	0.5655	0.6434	0.8112
2024-11-08	0.5754	0.6397	0.8081
2024-11-15	0.4967	0.6335	0.8041
2024-11-22	0.4967	0.6273	0.8001
2024-11-29	0.5243	0.6232	0.796
2024-12-06	0.5194	0.6186	0.7919
2024-12-13	0.5194	0.614	0.7879
2024-12-20	0.5243	0.6095	0.7839
2024-12-27	0.5243	0.6048	0.7799
2025-01-03	0.5243	0.5998	0.776
2025-01-10	0.5243	0.5943	0.7722
2025-01-17	0.5317	0.5891	0.7686
2025-01-24	0.5342	0.5838	0.7651
2025-01-31	0.5342	0.5786	0.7617
2025-02-07	0.5392	0.5736	0.7584
2025-02-14	0.5392	0.5686	0.7552
2025-02-21	0.5392	0.5645	0.7523
2025-02-28	0.5392	0.561	0.7494
2025-03-07	0.5441	0.5578	0.7469
2025-03-14	0.554	0.5546	0.7445
2025-03-21	0.5738	0.5526	0.7423
2025-03-28	0.5787	0.5511	0.7402
2025-04-04	0.5787	0.5497	0.7382
2025-04-11	0.5837	0.5485	0.7359
2025-04-18	0.5738	0.5483	0.7336
2025-04-25	0.5738	0.5478	0.7316
2025-05-02	0.5787	0.5474	0.7296
2025-05-09	0.5787	0.547	0.7276
2025-05-16	0.5787	0.5471	0.7257
2025-05-23	0.5787	0.5476	0.7239
2025-05-30	0.5787	0.548	0.722
2025-06-06	0.5787	0.5481	0.7203
2025-06-13	0.5837	0.551	0.7188
2025-06-20	0.5837	0.5539	0.7172
2025-06-27	0.5936	0.5562	0.7159
2025-07-04	0.6035	0.559	0.7147
2025-07-11	0.61	0.562	0.7138
2025-07-18	0.63	0.5656	0.713
2025-07-25	0.61	0.5684	0.7125
2025-08-01	0.605	0.5711	0.712
2025-08-08	0.605	0.5738	0.7114
2025-08-15	0.605	0.5762	0.711
2025-08-22	0.605	0.5786	0.7111
2025-08-29	0.605	0.581	0.7111
2025-09-05	0.605	0.5832	0.7113
2025-09-12	0.605	0.5854	0.7115
2025-09-19	0.605	0.5875	0.7117
2025-09-26	0.52	0.5869	0.7115
2025-10-03	0.51	0.5858	0.7114
2025-10-10	0.51	0.5843	0.711
2025-10-17	0.505	0.582	0.7106
2025-10-24	0.50	0.5794	0.7099
2025-10-31	0.495	0.5766	0.7087
2025-11-07	0.485	0.5733	0.7074
2025-11-14	0.47	0.5698	0.7059
2025-11-21	0.455	0.5659	0.7042
2025-11-28	0.445	0.5614	0.7023
2025-12-05	0.45	0.5571	0.7003
2025-12-12	0.445	0.5527	0.6983
2025-12-19	0.46	0.5487	0.696
2025-12-26	0.46	0.5448	0.6938
2026-01-02	0.46	0.5408	0.6912
2026-01-09	0.465	0.5369	0.6882
2026-01-16	0.465	0.5329	0.6856
2026-01-23	0.465	0.5286	0.6832
2026-01-30	0.465	0.524	0.6812
2026-02-06	0.465	0.5192	0.679
2026-02-13	0.46	0.5135	0.6768
2026-02-20	0.465	0.5087	0.6744
2026-02-27	0.47	0.5042	0.6716
2026-03-06	0.47	0.4997	0.6692
2026-03-13	0.47	0.4952	0.6667
2026-03-20	0.465	0.4905	0.6646
2026-03-27	0.48	0.4863	0.6625
2026-04-03	0.475	0.482	0.6603
2026-04-10	0.475	0.4777	0.6578
2026-04-17	0.49	0.4738	0.6556
2026-04-24	0.49	0.4728	0.6534
2026-05-01	0.49	0.4722	0.6513
2026-05-08	0.49	0.4715	0.6491
2026-05-15	0.49	0.471	0.6468
2026-05-22	0.49	0.4707	0.6446
2026-05-29	0.49	0.4705	0.6423
2026-06-05	0.49	0.4707	0.6399
2026-06-12	0.49	0.4713	0.6372
2026-06-19	0.455	0.4713	0.6341
2026-06-26	0.455	0.4717	0.631
2026-07-03	0.455	0.4718	0.628
2026-07-10	0.455	0.4722	0.6251
2026-07-17	0.455	0.472	0.6222
2026-07-24	0.455	0.4718	0.6191
2026-07-31	0.455	0.4717	0.6161
2026-08-07	0.455	0.4713	0.6129
2026-08-14	0.455	0.471	0.6096
2026-08-21	0.455	0.4707	0.6064
2026-08-28	0.455	0.4703	0.6032
2026-09-04	0.455	0.47	0.5999
2026-09-11	0.455	0.4698	0.5967
2026-09-18	0.45	0.4693	0.5931
2026-09-25	0.455	0.4688	0.5894
2026-10-02	0.49	0.4695	0.5859

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewBelow GBP 0.45 -8.2% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewAbove GBP 0.49 0.0% from the latest close · Forming

This is the forming swing’s current endpoint. It can move as the swing extends; it is not a fixed stop price.

Earlier confirmed swing GBP 0.63

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2025-07-18

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 7.7%

13-week return 7.7%

26-week return 3.2%

52-week return -3.9%

From 52-week high -3.9%

26-week volatility 15.6%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Below GBP 0.45

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above GBP 0.49

This is a forming correction endpoint and can move. Use the earlier confirmed swings for wider context.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 8.0% reversalBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

72/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 5.0% reversalBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

72/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 3.5% reversalBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

72/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size · Leading33%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingStrategic swing size33%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingTactical swing size33%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

33% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.45 Fails above 0.49 Count stability Moderate · 52/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 0.445; Wave B 0.45.

PassWave C moves in the direction of Wave AA length 0.04; C length 0.04.

GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 0.89× Wave A.

Strategic degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 8.9%

2 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.45

Pivot from 2026-09-18

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.63

Pivot from 2025-07-18

30-week trend 0.4695

Price is 4.4% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.5859

Price is -16.4% from Fair Value

52-week range position 78%

0.42 low · 0.51 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

86% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 1 readings support the selected direction; 6 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

4.4% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack

Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+2.4

Market activity

Participation is weak

-10.0

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.2

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+4.3

Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 1 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 2 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+74 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Rising

10/100Repeat fit · 32.1 cycles of history

Trough: 9 Oct–18 Dec 2026 (+1–11w)Crest: 2 Oct–11 Dec 2026 (+0–10w)

20w bandEstimated 15w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 17.1 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 44w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 5.8 cycles of history

80w bandEstimated 96w · Troughing

39/100Repeat fit · 2.7 cycles of history

Trough: 20 Aug–3 Mar 2028 (+46–74w)Crest: 7 May–19 Nov 2027 (+31–59w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 39/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 rising alignment · 0/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low60 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high45 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score10/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough2w

Possible next low1–11w

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough12w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 44w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough8w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle80w / 96w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score39/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough36w

Possible next low46–74w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 57.8% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 3.9% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Count instability
The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.
Event proximity
Earnings are about 4 week(s) away.
Range position
Price is 78% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.

Downside risk check

Contained

12/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension0/20

Range position2/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk0/15

Count instability5/10

Event proximity5/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.42

52-week high0.51

Annualised volatility15.6%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range1.7%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-57.8%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume79%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

42% constructive

10 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

33% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

An event could cross a key price level

Earnings: 2026-10-29 · about 4w away

Options: Bullish · 55/100 conviction · ±3.1% expected move

Earnings are due in about 4 weeks.

The options-implied move is large enough to cross the Elliott invalidation level in one event-sized move.

Stored options pressure is bullish with 55/100 conviction.

Compare the expected move with the price levels above. An event can take price straight through a chart level.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	585	46%	-0.8%	-1.1%	-10.3% to 9.4%
13 weeks	227	50%	0.1%	-2.6%	-19.5% to 17.9%
26 weeks	131	48%	-1.0%	-4.0%	-21.9% to 24.6%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -2.1% across 14 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

14 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-2.1%

13w

-2.5%

26w

-5.5%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	14	14%	-2.1%	-21.4% to 5.9%
13 weeks	14	36%	-2.5%	-24.6% to 12.3%
26 weeks	14	21%	-5.5%	-33.9% to 12.9%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 99/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-02 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2023-11-24	Confirmed	Low	0.8641	-16.8%	7 weeks
2024-01-05	Confirmed	High	0.9109	5.4%	6 weeks
2024-01-12	Confirmed	Low	0.6771	-25.7%	1 weeks
2024-01-26	Confirmed	High	0.7307	7.9%	2 weeks
2024-05-03	Confirmed	Low	0.6479	-11.3%	14 weeks
2024-07-05	Confirmed	High	0.6917	6.8%	9 weeks
2024-11-22	Confirmed	Low	0.4967	-28.2%	20 weeks
2025-07-18	Confirmed	High	0.63	26.8%	34 weeks
2025-12-12	Confirmed	Low	0.445	-29.4%	21 weeks
2026-06-12	Confirmed	High	0.49	10.1%	26 weeks
2026-09-18	Confirmed	Low	0.45	-8.2%	14 weeks
2026-10-02	Forming	High	0.49	8.9%	2 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

MRKWave & cycle analysis

A rebound is being tested

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

42% constructive

An event could cross a key price level

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

42% constructive

An event could cross a key price level

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗