CRYPTO · Crypto · Weekly analysis

Cardano USDWave & cycle analysis

Latest close USD 0.2429 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

42/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

5 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The leading count changed 1 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in USD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-20	0.2511	0.313	0.8111
2023-10-27	0.2895	0.3094	0.8124
2023-11-03	0.329	0.3076	0.8138
2023-11-10	0.3862	0.3058	0.8156
2023-11-17	0.3666	0.3053	0.8172
2023-11-24	0.3862	0.3047	0.8187
2023-12-01	0.3842	0.3043	0.8202
2023-12-08	0.5459	0.3102	0.8228
2023-12-15	0.6014	0.3179	0.8256
2023-12-22	0.6242	0.3266	0.8286
2023-12-29	0.6085	0.3343	0.8314
2024-01-05	0.5412	0.3425	0.8329
2024-01-12	0.5473	0.352	0.8345
2024-01-19	0.5032	0.3589	0.8355
2024-01-26	0.4853	0.3655	0.8363
2024-02-02	0.514	0.3731	0.8362
2024-02-09	0.5408	0.3802	0.8337
2024-02-16	0.5989	0.3897	0.8316
2024-02-23	0.5832	0.3988	0.8274
2024-03-01	0.7191	0.413	0.8245
2024-03-08	0.7249	0.4274	0.8225
2024-03-15	0.7264	0.4428	0.8188
2024-03-22	0.6133	0.4545	0.815
2024-03-29	0.6644	0.4682	0.8116
2024-04-05	0.5748	0.4789	0.8075
2024-04-12	0.5036	0.4873	0.8017
2024-04-19	0.4688	0.4948	0.7973
2024-04-26	0.4627	0.5019	0.7916
2024-05-03	0.4675	0.5086	0.784
2024-05-10	0.4482	0.5154	0.774
2024-05-17	0.482	0.523	0.7671
2024-05-24	0.4595	0.5287	0.7604
2024-05-31	0.4475	0.5327	0.7523
2024-06-07	0.4496	0.5348	0.746
2024-06-14	0.4117	0.5363	0.7395
2024-06-21	0.3761	0.5359	0.7339
2024-06-28	0.3854	0.536	0.7274
2024-07-05	0.3499	0.5294	0.721
2024-07-12	0.4165	0.5233	0.7161
2024-07-19	0.439	0.5171	0.7112
2024-07-26	0.4177	0.5108	0.7055
2024-08-02	0.3638	0.5048	0.6989
2024-08-09	0.3485	0.4982	0.6874
2024-08-16	0.3305	0.4925	0.6738
2024-08-23	0.3915	0.4893	0.6574
2024-08-30	0.3472	0.4838	0.6406
2024-09-06	0.3147	0.4762	0.6273
2024-09-13	0.3609	0.4683	0.6146
2024-09-20	0.3521	0.4606	0.6022
2024-09-27	0.4023	0.45	0.5903
2024-10-04	0.3514	0.4376	0.5782
2024-10-11	0.3512	0.4251	0.5663
2024-10-18	0.3507	0.4163	0.5547
2024-10-25	0.3244	0.405	0.5439
2024-11-01	0.3571	0.3977	0.5335
2024-11-08	0.4438	0.3957	0.5232
2024-11-15	0.6741	0.4026	0.5156
2024-11-22	1.01	0.4208	0.5123
2024-11-29	1.08	0.4412	0.5092
2024-12-06	1.23	0.4673	0.5093
2024-12-13	1.12	0.4885	0.5087
2024-12-20	0.951	0.5049	0.5058
2024-12-27	0.8748	0.5191	0.503
2025-01-03	1.09	0.5405	0.5023
2025-01-10	0.9315	0.5578	0.50
2025-01-17	1.14	0.5831	0.50
2025-01-24	0.9715	0.6027	0.4995
2025-01-31	0.9422	0.6224	0.4983
2025-02-07	0.7071	0.6321	0.4959
2025-02-14	0.8005	0.6441	0.4946
2025-02-21	0.7614	0.6556	0.4938
2025-02-28	0.6331	0.6646	0.4924
2025-03-07	0.8168	0.6802	0.4926
2025-03-14	0.7383	0.6938	0.4918
2025-03-21	0.7051	0.7042	0.4893
2025-03-28	0.7056	0.7162	0.4864
2025-04-04	0.6604	0.7277	0.484
2025-04-11	0.6242	0.7365	0.4819
2025-04-18	0.6274	0.7456	0.4801
2025-04-25	0.7141	0.756	0.4795
2025-05-02	0.698	0.7676	0.479
2025-05-09	0.7777	0.7818	0.4806
2025-05-16	0.7593	0.7954	0.4821
2025-05-23	0.7464	0.8095	0.484
2025-05-30	0.6893	0.8206	0.4848
2025-06-06	0.6564	0.8277	0.4854
2025-06-13	0.6421	0.8266	0.4864
2025-06-20	0.5773	0.8122	0.4869
2025-06-27	0.5588	0.7949	0.4876
2025-07-04	0.5729	0.7729	0.4882
2025-07-11	0.7105	0.7593	0.49
2025-07-18	0.8159	0.7548	0.4921
2025-07-25	0.8161	0.7528	0.494
2025-08-01	0.7157	0.7404	0.4952
2025-08-08	0.7912	0.7357	0.4968
2025-08-15	0.9438	0.7293	0.50
2025-08-22	0.9299	0.7279	0.5032
2025-08-29	0.8271	0.7241	0.5056
2025-09-05	0.8311	0.7282	0.5077
2025-09-12	0.9171	0.7321	0.5105
2025-09-19	0.8909	0.7364	0.5133
2025-09-26	0.7922	0.7417	0.5156
2025-10-03	0.8663	0.7434	0.5184
2025-10-10	0.6348	0.7399	0.5201
2025-10-17	0.6248	0.7372	0.5219
2025-10-24	0.6559	0.7356	0.5235
2025-10-31	0.6092	0.7339	0.5247
2025-11-07	0.576	0.7323	0.5261
2025-11-14	0.4984	0.728	0.5272
2025-11-21	0.4091	0.7178	0.5278
2025-11-28	0.4202	0.7086	0.5285
2025-12-05	0.4163	0.6965	0.5291
2025-12-12	0.4091	0.6848	0.5301
2025-12-19	0.3766	0.6725	0.5308
2025-12-26	0.3496	0.6612	0.5315
2026-01-02	0.3938	0.6524	0.5322
2026-01-09	0.3907	0.644	0.5325
2026-01-16	0.3955	0.638	0.5327
2026-01-23	0.3601	0.6314	0.5325
2026-01-30	0.3204	0.6229	0.532
2026-02-06	0.2762	0.6085	0.5315
2026-02-13	0.2727	0.5904	0.5306
2026-02-20	0.2849	0.5727	0.5301
2026-02-27	0.2776	0.5581	0.5297
2026-03-06	0.259	0.5403	0.5293
2026-03-13	0.2657	0.5177	0.5288
2026-03-20	0.2661	0.4956	0.5282
2026-03-27	0.246	0.4762	0.5272
2026-04-03	0.2462	0.4567	0.5263
2026-04-10	0.2543	0.4346	0.5251
2026-04-17	0.2589	0.4136	0.5243
2026-04-24	0.2504	0.3955	0.5234
2026-05-01	0.2481	0.3749	0.5224
2026-05-08	0.2733	0.3628	0.5218
2026-05-15	0.2615	0.3507	0.5211
2026-05-22	0.2424	0.3369	0.5203
2026-05-29	0.2326	0.3244	0.5194
2026-06-05	0.1566	0.3104	0.5185
2026-06-12	0.1698	0.2995	0.5179
2026-06-19	0.1621	0.2912	0.5171
2026-06-26	0.1482	0.2822	0.5162
2026-07-03	0.1799	0.2743	0.5155
2026-07-10	0.1665	0.2662	0.5145
2026-07-17	0.1666	0.2592	0.5135
2026-07-24	0.1638	0.253	0.5126
2026-07-31	0.168	0.2455	0.5118
2026-08-07	0.2011	0.2392	0.5112
2026-08-14	0.1799	0.232	0.5106
2026-08-21	0.2292	0.2276	0.5104
2026-08-28	0.2031	0.2237	0.5101
2026-09-04	0.2113	0.2215	0.5098
2026-09-11	0.2062	0.2193	0.5095
2026-09-18	0.2245	0.2173	0.5094
2026-09-25	0.2585	0.2167	0.5095
2026-10-02	0.2444	0.2162	0.5093
2026-10-09	0.2429	0.2154	0.5093

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewBelow USD 0.1482 -39.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewAbove USD 0.9438 288.5% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing USD 0.9438

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2025-08-15

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 17.8%

13-week return 45.9%

26-week return -4.5%

52-week return -61.7%

From 52-week high -67.0%

26-week volatility 86.0%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Below USD 0.1482

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above USD 0.9438

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

2 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 24.0% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 16.0% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 11.2% reversalPossible Wave 4 trough

90/100 pattern fit

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading6%

Possible Wave 4 troughTactical swing size88%

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size6%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

6% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.1482 Fails above 0.9438 Count stability High · 84/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.9438; Wave 2 0.2429.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 12% of Wave 1.

Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 4 trough

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 63.9%

15 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.1482

Pivot from 2026-06-26

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.9438

Pivot from 2025-08-15

30-week trend 0.2154

Price is 12.8% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.5093

Price is -52.3% from Fair Value

52-week range position 17%

0.1387 low · 0.7351 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

71% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 2 readings support the selected direction; 5 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

12.8% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-3.0

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+24.0

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.8

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-8.6

Balance of readings Constructive

5 constructive, 2 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+31 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Rising

2/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history

Trough: 16 Oct–27 Nov 2026 (+1–7w)Crest: 30 Oct–11 Dec 2026 (+3–9w)

20w bandEstimated 15w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 42w · Troughing

4/100Repeat fit · 6.6 cycles of history

Trough: 11 Dec–2 Apr 2027 (+9–25w)Crest: 22 Jan–14 May 2027 (+15–31w)

80w bandEstimated 60w · Troughing

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 4.6 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 4/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 rising alignment · 0/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low17 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high23 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score2/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough4w

Possible next low1–7w

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough15w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 42w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score4/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough25w

Possible next low9–25w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough14w

Possible next low-

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 91.8% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 67.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Trend extension
Price is 12.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has high recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

12/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension10/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk0/15

Count instability2/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.1387

52-week high0.7351

Annualised volatility86.0%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range10.0%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-91.8%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume322%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

There is not enough peer history to compare the sector with this count.

Unavailable

No peers with enough weekly history were found.

Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -2.0% across 57 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

58 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-2.0%

13w

-17.7%

26w

-28.6%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	57	42%	-2.0%	-42.7% to 177.4%
13 weeks	53	32%	-17.7%	-56.0% to 223.7%
26 weeks	49	20%	-28.6%	-71.1% to 78.9%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2024-10-25	Confirmed	Low	0.3244	-19.4%	4 weeks
2024-12-06	Confirmed	High	1.23	279.5%	6 weeks
2024-12-27	Confirmed	Low	0.8748	-28.9%	3 weeks
2025-01-17	Confirmed	High	1.14	29.8%	3 weeks
2025-02-28	Confirmed	Low	0.6331	-44.2%	6 weeks
2025-03-07	Confirmed	High	0.8168	29.0%	1 weeks
2025-04-11	Confirmed	Low	0.6242	-23.6%	5 weeks
2025-05-09	Confirmed	High	0.7777	24.6%	4 weeks
2025-06-27	Confirmed	Low	0.5588	-28.2%	7 weeks
2025-08-15	Confirmed	High	0.9438	68.9%	7 weeks
2026-06-26	Confirmed	Low	0.1482	-84.3%	45 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	High	0.2429	63.9%	15 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

Cardano USDWave & cycle analysis

The wave count points to a decline

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

Unavailable

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

Unavailable

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗