ASX · Healthcare · Weekly analysis

NSBWave & cycle analysis

NeuroScientific Biopharmaceuticals Limited

Latest close AUD 0.058 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

83/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The most recent swing is still forming and can extend. A settled label needs a confirmed reversal.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-10-200.070.08530.2166
2023-10-270.0610.08430.2152
2023-11-030.060.08360.2137
2023-11-100.0560.08320.212
2023-11-170.060.08270.2103
2023-11-240.0710.08270.2088
2023-12-010.060.08230.2073
2023-12-080.0490.08120.2058
2023-12-150.0490.07960.2044
2023-12-220.0490.07790.2031
2023-12-290.0440.07620.2018
2024-01-050.0390.07470.2003
2024-01-120.0390.07330.199
2024-01-190.0380.07210.1977
2024-01-260.0350.07060.1965
2024-02-020.040.06840.1953
2024-02-090.0410.06630.1941
2024-02-160.0370.06350.1929
2024-02-230.0360.06140.1918
2024-03-010.0460.060.1906
2024-03-080.0420.05850.1892
2024-03-150.0480.05710.1879
2024-03-220.0490.05570.1864
2024-03-290.0470.05430.185
2024-04-050.0650.05350.1838
2024-04-120.060.05230.1825
2024-04-190.0530.05140.1809
2024-04-260.0480.05070.1792
2024-05-030.0550.05020.1779
2024-05-100.0450.04970.1768
2024-05-170.0460.04890.1751
2024-05-240.0430.04830.1733
2024-05-310.0490.0480.1716
2024-06-070.0470.04770.1699
2024-06-140.040.0470.1683
2024-06-210.0390.04590.1664
2024-06-280.040.04530.1645
2024-07-050.0370.04490.1625
2024-07-120.0390.04450.1607
2024-07-190.040.04420.1588
2024-07-260.0390.04410.1569
2024-08-020.0370.0440.1552
2024-08-090.0390.0440.1536
2024-08-160.0410.04410.1518
2024-08-230.0450.04440.15
2024-08-300.0430.04450.1482
2024-09-060.0390.04450.1462
2024-09-130.0380.04450.1436
2024-09-200.0390.04460.1406
2024-09-270.0340.04420.1379
2024-10-040.0360.0440.1354
2024-10-110.040.04370.1331
2024-10-180.0390.04340.1307
2024-10-250.0360.0430.1286
2024-11-010.0370.04210.1266
2024-11-080.0380.04140.1244
2024-11-150.0360.04080.1223
2024-11-220.0370.04040.1204
2024-11-290.0360.03980.1185
2024-12-060.0340.03940.1167
2024-12-130.0370.03910.115
2024-12-200.0340.03880.113
2024-12-270.0330.03830.1111
2025-01-030.0330.03780.1089
2025-01-100.0330.03760.1069
2025-01-170.0390.03760.105
2025-01-240.0380.03750.1034
2025-01-310.0370.03750.1017
2025-02-070.0390.03750.0996
2025-02-140.0380.03750.0978
2025-02-210.0370.03740.0963
2025-02-280.0380.03740.0946
2025-03-070.0340.03730.093
2025-03-140.0420.03730.0914
2025-03-210.040.03710.0898
2025-03-280.0370.03690.0882
2025-04-040.0360.03680.0865
2025-04-110.0350.03670.085
2025-04-180.0460.0370.0834
2025-04-250.0550.03770.0821
2025-05-020.0490.03810.0809
2025-05-090.0520.03850.0799
2025-05-160.0480.03880.0787
2025-05-230.0530.03940.0777
2025-05-300.0580.04010.0766
2025-06-060.0560.04070.0757
2025-06-130.0660.04170.0749
2025-06-200.0790.04310.0741
2025-06-270.080.04450.0734
2025-07-040.140.04810.073
2025-07-110.160.05220.0727
2025-07-180.1750.05690.0726
2025-07-250.220.06310.0727
2025-08-010.250.07030.0728
2025-08-080.1950.07570.0724
2025-08-150.180.08040.0718
2025-08-220.1750.0850.0714
2025-08-290.1750.08960.0712
2025-09-050.1850.09450.0717
2025-09-120.17250.0990.0722
2025-09-190.180.10370.0728
2025-09-260.1650.1080.0732
2025-10-030.1550.1120.0736
2025-10-100.150.11560.074
2025-10-170.150.11920.0744
2025-10-240.1350.12250.0747
2025-10-310.1250.12550.0749
2025-11-070.140.1290.0754
2025-11-140.1350.1320.0756
2025-11-210.1050.13360.0755
2025-11-280.120.1360.0753
2025-12-050.1150.13810.075
2025-12-120.1050.140.0747
2025-12-190.1050.14170.0745
2025-12-260.1050.14330.0743
2026-01-020.100.14480.0744
2026-01-090.1150.14640.0745
2026-01-160.1450.14860.0748
2026-01-230.140.15060.0751
2026-01-300.140.15060.0753
2026-02-060.130.14960.0755
2026-02-130.130.14810.0758
2026-02-200.1150.14460.076
2026-02-270.1050.13980.076
2026-03-060.0970.13650.076
2026-03-130.0930.13360.0761
2026-03-200.0930.13080.0762
2026-03-270.0710.12740.0761
2026-04-030.100.12460.0762
2026-04-100.100.12210.0764
2026-04-170.1150.120.0766
2026-04-240.1150.11830.0769
2026-05-010.1050.11660.0771
2026-05-080.100.1150.0773
2026-05-150.0990.11330.0773
2026-05-220.0940.11190.0772
2026-05-290.0920.11080.0772
2026-06-050.0870.1090.0772
2026-06-120.0690.10680.0772
2026-06-190.0620.10540.0771
2026-06-260.0640.10350.077
2026-07-030.0640.10180.0767
2026-07-100.0650.10050.0765
2026-07-170.0610.0990.0761
2026-07-240.0650.09770.0759
2026-07-310.060.09640.0757
2026-08-070.0590.09450.0755
2026-08-140.0580.09160.0753
2026-08-210.0650.08910.0751
2026-08-280.0620.08650.075
2026-09-040.0610.08420.0748
2026-09-110.0620.08190.0746
2026-09-180.0610.08010.0744
2026-09-250.0620.07870.0744
2026-10-020.0580.07740.0743
2026-10-090.0580.07620.0743
4-week return -6.5%
13-week return -10.8%
26-week return -42.0%
52-week return -61.3%
From 52-week high -67.8%
26-week volatility 49.1%
Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Below AUD 0.058

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above AUD 0.115

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 24.0% reversalPossible bearish Wave 3 declining
74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
Primary · 16.0% reversalPossible bearish Wave 3 declining
74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
Tactical · 11.2% reversalFive-wave decline mature
95/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningPrimary swing size · Leading14%
A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size7%
Five-wave decline matureTactical swing size80%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 3 declining

14% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.058 Fails above 0.115 Count stability High · 100/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.145; Wave 2 0.115.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.071; Wave 3 0.058.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 59% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 0.77× Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeFive-wave decline mature

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -49.6%

24 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.035

Pivot from 2025-04-11

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.115

Pivot from 2026-04-24

30-week trend 0.0762

Price is -23.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.0743

Price is -21.9% from Fair Value

52-week range position 2%

0.056 low · 0.18 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

23.9% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-38.4
Market activity

Participation is weak

-44.5
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.6
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-37.6
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 5 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window
Now+87 weeks
10w bandEstimated 8w · Falling
10/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history
Trough: 9 Oct–27 Nov 2026 (+0–7w)Crest: 23 Oct–18 Dec 2026 (+2–10w)
20w bandEstimated 15w · Falling
4/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history
Trough: 9 Oct–13 Nov 2026 (+0–5w)Crest: 11 Dec–5 Feb 2027 (+9–17w)
40w bandEstimated 30w · Troughing
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history
80w bandEstimated 100w · Falling
15/100Repeat fit · 2.8 cycles of history
Trough: 6 Aug–9 Jun 2028 (+43–87w)Crest: 7 May–10 Mar 2028 (+30–74w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 15/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 rising alignment · 75/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low1 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high13 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score10/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough5w
Possible next low0–7w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score4/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough14w
Possible next low0–5w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough12w
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score15/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough135w
Possible next low43–87w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 88.4% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 67.8% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

Downside risk check

Contained

11/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability0/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.056
52-week high0.18
Annualised volatility49.1%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range5.9%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-88.4%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume48%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

30% constructive

7 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

22% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks55650%0.1%0.0%-13.7% to 16.7%
13 weeks21456%2.0%0.4%-22.6% to 31.7%
26 weeks12750%0.5%-3.5%-31.4% to 58.9%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -3.2% across 97 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

98 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-3.2%
13w
-11.2%
26w
-10.4%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 97 39% -3.2% -62.5% to 132.9%
13 weeks 90 30% -11.2% -50.0% to 288.9%
26 weeks 84 31% -10.4% -62.9% to 575.7%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-08-23 Confirmed High 0.045 21.6% 3 weeks
2024-09-27 Confirmed Low 0.034 -24.4% 5 weeks
2024-10-11 Confirmed High 0.04 17.6% 2 weeks
2025-01-10 Confirmed Low 0.033 -17.5% 13 weeks
2025-03-14 Confirmed High 0.042 27.3% 9 weeks
2025-04-11 Confirmed Low 0.035 -16.7% 4 weeks
2025-08-01 Confirmed High 0.25 614.3% 16 weeks
2026-01-02 Confirmed Low 0.10 -60.0% 22 weeks
2026-01-16 Confirmed High 0.145 45.0% 2 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 0.071 -51.0% 10 weeks
2026-04-24 Confirmed High 0.115 62.0% 4 weeks
2026-10-09 Forming Low 0.058 -49.6% 24 weeks
Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

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Compare the weekly price path with other published market profiles.

Chart guide

Evidence context