HKG · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

2298Wave & cycle analysis

Cosmo Lady (China) Holdings Company Limited

Latest close HKD 0.255 Week ending 2 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

No clear wave pattern yet

There is no leading pattern that meets the wave rules. Use the trend and other readings for context while more swings develop.

91/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Observing Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst crest risk

No wave count meets the rules yet. The chart still shows price, trend and confirmed swings.

Other readingsUse the other readings for context

0 of 7 available readings are positive and 7 are negative. There is no leading wave direction to compare them with.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

Wait for a pattern that meets the wave rules. A label should not be forced onto every price move.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-13	0.2246	0.3302	0.5643
2023-10-20	0.2227	0.3251	0.5591
2023-10-27	0.2105	0.3201	0.554
2023-11-03	0.2087	0.3151	0.5486
2023-11-10	0.204	0.3097	0.5419
2023-11-17	0.233	0.3056	0.5352
2023-11-24	0.2573	0.3027	0.5287
2023-12-01	0.248	0.2991	0.5225
2023-12-08	0.233	0.2948	0.5162
2023-12-15	0.2283	0.2901	0.5101
2023-12-22	0.2208	0.2864	0.5034
2023-12-29	0.2236	0.2823	0.4971
2024-01-05	0.2246	0.2783	0.4909
2024-01-12	0.2152	0.2736	0.4846
2024-01-19	0.2021	0.2691	0.4783
2024-01-26	0.2012	0.2643	0.4711
2024-02-02	0.1974	0.2599	0.464
2024-02-09	0.2059	0.2545	0.4574
2024-02-16	0.2115	0.2495	0.4511
2024-02-23	0.2133	0.2445	0.4454
2024-03-01	0.2208	0.24	0.4395
2024-03-08	0.218	0.2356	0.434
2024-03-15	0.2199	0.2315	0.4283
2024-03-22	0.2143	0.2276	0.4229
2024-03-29	0.218	0.2245	0.4171
2024-04-05	0.2264	0.2232	0.4115
2024-04-12	0.2246	0.2213	0.4062
2024-04-19	0.2115	0.2193	0.4005
2024-04-26	0.2105	0.2186	0.395
2024-05-03	0.2049	0.2185	0.3897
2024-05-10	0.2049	0.2178	0.3847
2024-05-17	0.2012	0.2171	0.3796
2024-05-24	0.19	0.2164	0.375
2024-05-31	0.1956	0.216	0.3691
2024-06-07	0.1862	0.2154	0.3635
2024-06-14	0.2021	0.2144	0.3582
2024-06-21	0.1984	0.2124	0.353
2024-06-28	0.1946	0.2106	0.3473
2024-07-05	0.1984	0.2095	0.3421
2024-07-12	0.1974	0.2084	0.337
2024-07-19	0.1871	0.2073	0.3319
2024-07-26	0.1853	0.206	0.3271
2024-08-02	0.1853	0.2047	0.3226
2024-08-09	0.1787	0.2035	0.3182
2024-08-16	0.2386	0.2047	0.315
2024-08-23	0.2667	0.2069	0.3122
2024-08-30	0.2714	0.2094	0.3091
2024-09-06	0.248	0.2108	0.3061
2024-09-13	0.2339	0.2115	0.3033
2024-09-20	0.2423	0.2125	0.301
2024-09-27	0.2492	0.2134	0.2984
2024-10-04	0.298	0.2161	0.2965
2024-10-11	0.2638	0.2176	0.2944
2024-10-18	0.2638	0.2192	0.2925
2024-10-25	0.2638	0.2208	0.2908
2024-11-01	0.2736	0.2223	0.2896
2024-11-08	0.2785	0.2241	0.2871
2024-11-15	0.2687	0.226	0.2844
2024-11-22	0.2413	0.2271	0.2817
2024-11-29	0.2492	0.2285	0.2791
2024-12-06	0.254	0.2302	0.2765
2024-12-13	0.2638	0.2323	0.2752
2024-12-20	0.2589	0.2346	0.274
2024-12-27	0.254	0.2365	0.2726
2025-01-03	0.254	0.2388	0.2713
2025-01-10	0.2638	0.2408	0.27
2025-01-17	0.2638	0.243	0.2687
2025-01-24	0.2687	0.2455	0.2674
2025-01-31	0.2589	0.2475	0.2662
2025-02-07	0.254	0.2494	0.2649
2025-02-14	0.2589	0.2518	0.2637
2025-02-21	0.2589	0.2542	0.2624
2025-02-28	0.254	0.2565	0.2613
2025-03-07	0.2638	0.2593	0.2605
2025-03-14	0.2589	0.26	0.2596
2025-03-21	0.2492	0.2594	0.2586
2025-03-28	0.2492	0.2587	0.2578
2025-04-04	0.2423	0.2585	0.2568
2025-04-11	0.2335	0.2585	0.256
2025-04-18	0.2296	0.2581	0.2553
2025-04-25	0.2267	0.2573	0.2546
2025-05-02	0.2306	0.2551	0.254
2025-05-09	0.2306	0.254	0.2533
2025-05-16	0.2325	0.2529	0.2527
2025-05-23	0.2198	0.2515	0.2517
2025-05-30	0.215	0.2495	0.251
2025-06-06	0.21	0.2472	0.2502
2025-06-13	0.207	0.2452	0.2495
2025-06-20	0.234	0.2449	0.2487
2025-06-27	0.231	0.2443	0.248
2025-07-04	0.24	0.2439	0.2477
2025-07-11	0.24	0.2431	0.2475
2025-07-18	0.26	0.2431	0.2473
2025-07-25	0.40	0.248	0.2481
2025-08-01	0.36	0.2515	0.249
2025-08-08	0.395	0.2559	0.2503
2025-08-15	0.38	0.2597	0.2515
2025-08-22	0.37	0.2631	0.2526
2025-08-29	0.35	0.2662	0.2533
2025-09-05	0.34	0.269	0.2543
2025-09-12	0.36	0.2724	0.2553
2025-09-19	0.35	0.2754	0.2563
2025-09-26	0.315	0.2775	0.2572
2025-10-03	0.315	0.2792	0.2579
2025-10-10	0.325	0.2814	0.2588
2025-10-17	0.305	0.2832	0.2596
2025-10-24	0.355	0.2868	0.2608
2025-10-31	0.355	0.2905	0.2621
2025-11-07	0.36	0.2947	0.2635
2025-11-14	0.345	0.2986	0.2646
2025-11-21	0.31	0.3014	0.2653
2025-11-28	0.315	0.3042	0.2662
2025-12-05	0.31	0.3068	0.2669
2025-12-12	0.305	0.3092	0.2676
2025-12-19	0.285	0.3114	0.2683
2025-12-26	0.265	0.3131	0.2688
2026-01-02	0.325	0.3169	0.2696
2026-01-09	0.365	0.3222	0.2707
2026-01-16	0.34	0.3257	0.2717
2026-01-23	0.365	0.3302	0.2728
2026-01-30	0.33	0.3332	0.2737
2026-02-06	0.345	0.3367	0.2744
2026-02-13	0.355	0.3398	0.2748
2026-02-20	0.355	0.3383	0.2745
2026-02-27	0.355	0.3382	0.2743
2026-03-06	0.35	0.3367	0.2744
2026-03-13	0.33	0.335	0.274
2026-03-20	0.32	0.3333	0.2737
2026-03-27	0.345	0.3332	0.2736
2026-04-03	0.3249	0.3327	0.2733
2026-04-10	0.344	0.3321	0.2732
2026-04-17	0.3918	0.3335	0.2734
2026-04-24	0.4587	0.3383	0.2742
2026-05-01	0.4443	0.3426	0.2747
2026-05-08	0.4396	0.3464	0.2752
2026-05-15	0.4204	0.3503	0.2756
2026-05-22	0.3822	0.3512	0.2759
2026-05-29	0.3488	0.351	0.2759
2026-06-05	0.365	0.3512	0.276
2026-06-12	0.35	0.3513	0.276
2026-06-19	0.35	0.3527	0.2761
2026-06-26	0.345	0.3537	0.2761
2026-07-03	0.33	0.3543	0.2761
2026-07-10	0.32	0.3548	0.2758
2026-07-17	0.315	0.3558	0.2755
2026-07-24	0.315	0.3575	0.2752
2026-07-31	0.295	0.3565	0.2748
2026-08-07	0.305	0.3545	0.2745
2026-08-14	0.305	0.3533	0.2742
2026-08-21	0.29	0.3508	0.274
2026-08-28	0.295	0.3497	0.2739
2026-09-04	0.285	0.3477	0.274
2026-09-11	0.285	0.3453	0.274
2026-09-18	0.265	0.3423	0.274
2026-09-25	0.265	0.3393	0.2742
2026-10-02	0.255	0.3362	0.2745

4-week return -10.5%

13-week return -22.7%

26-week return -21.5%

52-week return -19.0%

From 52-week high -46.6%

26-week volatility 42.9%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

No rule-valid wave count is available. Compare the trend and cycle evidence while a clearer structure develops.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

0 of 0 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 16.4% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

Primary · 10.3% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

Tactical · 7.2% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 10.3% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

No leading count meets the wave rules yet.

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

No valid count

There is no leading pattern to test yet. Use the other readings and wait for more price swings.

Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 16.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeNo valid count

Primary degree uses a 10.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 7.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -44.4%

23 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.207

Pivot from 2025-06-13

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.4587

Pivot from 2026-04-24

30-week trend 0.3362

Price is -24.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.2745

Price is -7.1% from Fair Value

52-week range position 6%

0.242 low · 0.4778 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

0 of 7 available readings are positive and 7 are negative. There is no leading wave direction to compare them with.

100% directional agreement

Use the other readings for context.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

24.1% below trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-18.7

Market activity

Participation is weak

-34.9

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-1.6

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-27.1

Balance of readings Defensive

0 constructive, 7 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 2 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+67 weeks

10w bandEstimated 12w · Falling

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 23.0 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 25w · Falling

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 11.0 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 50w · Falling

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 5.5 cycles of history

80w bandEstimated 78w · Falling

15/100Repeat fit · 3.5 cycles of history

Trough: 16 Jul–14 Jan 2028 (+41–67w)Crest: 8 Jan–9 Jul 2027 (+14–40w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 15/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

0/100 rising alignment · 100/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low54 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high27 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough6w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough26w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough39w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle80w / 78w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score15/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough24w

Possible next low41–67w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 76.7% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 46.6% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.
Cycle rollover
Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has high recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

28/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension0/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover11/15

Multi-cycle risk15/15

Count instability2/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.242

52-week high0.4778

Annualised volatility42.9%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range3.8%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-76.7%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume118%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count.

55% constructive

12 of 22 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

5% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^HSI	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	606	48%	-0.3%	-0.6%	-14.4% to 17.3%
13 weeks	237	48%	-1.0%	0.1%	-23.5% to 34.0%
26 weeks	135	50%	0.1%	-0.8%	-26.1% to 49.2%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -2.2% across 80 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

81 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-2.2%

13w

4.6%

26w

30.5%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	80	41%	-2.2%	-25.0% to 73.2%
13 weeks	72	61%	4.6%	-23.5% to 79.0%
26 weeks	72	72%	30.5%	-26.2% to 140.6%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-02 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 10.3% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2024-10-04	Confirmed	High	0.298	27.4%	3 weeks
2024-11-22	Confirmed	Low	0.2413	-19.0%	7 weeks
2025-01-24	Confirmed	High	0.2687	11.3%	9 weeks
2025-06-13	Confirmed	Low	0.207	-23.0%	20 weeks
2025-07-25	Confirmed	High	0.40	93.2%	6 weeks
2025-10-17	Confirmed	Low	0.305	-23.8%	12 weeks
2025-11-07	Confirmed	High	0.36	18.0%	3 weeks
2025-12-26	Confirmed	Low	0.265	-26.4%	7 weeks
2026-01-23	Confirmed	High	0.365	37.7%	4 weeks
2026-03-20	Confirmed	Low	0.32	-12.3%	8 weeks
2026-04-24	Confirmed	High	0.4587	43.3%	5 weeks
2026-10-02	Forming	Low	0.255	-44.4%	23 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

2298Wave & cycle analysis

No clear wave pattern yet

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

No valid count

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

55% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

No valid count

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

55% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗