CBOE · Market · Weekly analysis

MSFYWave & cycle analysis

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft (MSFT) ETF

Latest close USD 21.78 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 153 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

95/100 Setup score 79/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible Wave 3 advancing

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

7 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 0 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 3 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in USD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-11-10	17.37	Unavailable	17.37
2023-11-17	17.42	Unavailable	17.39
2023-11-24	17.55	Unavailable	17.45
2023-12-01	17.42	Unavailable	17.44
2023-12-08	17.43	Unavailable	17.44
2023-12-15	17.15	Unavailable	17.39
2023-12-22	17.45	Unavailable	17.40
2023-12-29	17.56	Unavailable	17.42
2024-01-05	17.24	Unavailable	17.40
2024-01-12	18.00	Unavailable	17.46
2024-01-19	18.31	Unavailable	17.54
2024-01-26	18.47	Unavailable	17.61
2024-02-02	18.97	Unavailable	17.72
2024-02-09	19.23	Unavailable	17.83
2024-02-16	18.80	Unavailable	17.89
2024-02-23	18.96	Unavailable	17.96
2024-03-01	19.14	Unavailable	18.03
2024-03-08	18.84	Unavailable	18.07
2024-03-15	19.19	Unavailable	18.13
2024-03-22	19.63	Unavailable	18.21
2024-03-29	19.52	Unavailable	18.27
2024-04-05	19.65	Unavailable	18.33
2024-04-12	19.51	Unavailable	18.38
2024-04-19	18.65	Unavailable	18.39
2024-04-26	19.01	Unavailable	18.42
2024-05-03	18.90	Unavailable	18.44
2024-05-10	19.23	Unavailable	18.47
2024-05-17	19.47	Unavailable	18.50
2024-05-24	19.72	Unavailable	18.54
2024-05-31	19.33	18.57	18.57
2024-06-07	19.66	18.65	18.61
2024-06-14	20.04	18.73	18.65
2024-06-21	20.17	18.82	18.70
2024-06-28	20.19	18.91	18.74
2024-07-05	20.61	19.02	18.79
2024-07-12	20.16	19.12	18.83
2024-07-19	19.54	19.19	18.85
2024-07-26	19.03	19.24	18.86
2024-08-02	18.36	19.28	18.84
2024-08-09	18.39	19.29	18.83
2024-08-16	18.95	19.31	18.84
2024-08-23	18.89	19.33	18.84
2024-08-30	18.91	19.32	18.84
2024-09-06	18.30	19.29	18.83
2024-09-13	19.32	19.31	18.84
2024-09-20	19.56	19.33	18.85
2024-09-27	19.38	19.34	18.86
2024-10-04	18.96	19.34	18.87
2024-10-11	18.94	19.33	18.87
2024-10-18	19.05	19.31	18.87
2024-10-25	19.44	19.31	18.88
2024-11-01	18.80	19.28	18.88
2024-11-08	19.33	19.28	18.89
2024-11-15	19.19	19.29	18.89
2024-11-22	19.12	19.30	18.90
2024-11-29	19.41	19.32	18.91
2024-12-06	20.09	19.34	18.93
2024-12-13	20.19	19.37	18.95
2024-12-20	19.88	19.37	18.97
2024-12-27	19.75	19.39	18.98
2025-01-03	19.46	19.38	18.99
2025-01-10	19.35	19.36	18.99
2025-01-17	19.77	19.34	19.01
2025-01-24	20.34	19.35	19.03
2025-01-31	19.20	19.30	19.03
2025-02-07	18.97	19.26	19.03
2025-02-14	18.93	19.24	19.03
2025-02-21	18.98	19.24	19.03
2025-02-28	18.46	19.24	19.02
2025-03-07	18.33	19.24	19.01
2025-03-14	18.18	19.22	19.00
2025-03-21	18.23	19.19	18.99
2025-03-28	17.72	19.15	18.97
2025-04-04	16.89	19.11	18.94
2025-04-11	18.03	19.06	18.93
2025-04-18	17.25	18.99	18.91
2025-04-25	18.29	18.95	18.90
2025-05-02	19.57	18.97	18.91
2025-05-09	19.69	19.00	18.92
2025-05-16	20.20	19.03	18.93
2025-05-23	20.14	19.06	18.95
2025-05-30	20.52	19.12	18.97
2025-06-06	20.87	19.17	18.99
2025-06-13	21.00	19.23	19.01
2025-06-20	21.09	19.29	19.04
2025-06-27	21.77	19.37	19.07
2025-07-04	21.85	19.43	19.10
2025-07-11	22.04	19.49	19.14
2025-07-18	22.32	19.57	19.17
2025-07-25	22.48	19.66	19.21
2025-08-01	22.99	19.78	19.25
2025-08-08	23.00	19.90	19.29
2025-08-15	22.98	20.01	19.33
2025-08-22	22.41	20.08	19.36
2025-08-29	22.43	20.19	19.39
2025-09-05	21.94	20.29	19.42
2025-09-12	22.47	20.40	19.45
2025-09-19	22.83	20.53	19.49
2025-09-26	22.69	20.67	19.52
2025-10-03	23.06	20.83	19.55
2025-10-10	22.82	20.99	19.59
2025-10-17	22.98	21.14	19.62
2025-10-24	23.44	21.34	19.66
2025-10-31	23.26	21.55	19.69
2025-11-07	22.59	21.70	19.72
2025-11-14	23.08	21.89	19.75
2025-11-21	21.56	22.00	19.77
2025-11-28	22.47	22.10	19.79
2025-12-05	22.01	22.18	19.81
2025-12-12	21.87	22.23	19.83
2025-12-19	22.19	22.30	19.85
2025-12-26	22.32	22.36	19.88
2026-01-02	21.68	22.39	19.89
2026-01-09	21.98	22.42	19.91
2026-01-16	20.98	22.42	19.92
2026-01-23	21.28	22.40	19.93
2026-01-30	19.42	22.32	19.93
2026-02-06	18.09	22.19	19.91
2026-02-13	18.04	22.04	19.90
2026-02-20	17.89	21.89	19.88
2026-02-27	17.60	21.71	19.86
2026-03-06	18.38	21.56	19.85
2026-03-13	17.77	21.38	19.83
2026-03-20	16.96	21.20	19.81
2026-03-27	15.83	20.98	19.78
2026-04-03	16.53	20.80	19.75
2026-04-10	16.47	20.60	19.72
2026-04-17	18.84	20.47	19.72
2026-04-24	18.95	20.34	19.71
2026-05-01	18.38	20.19	19.70
2026-05-08	18.46	20.04	19.69
2026-05-15	18.75	19.90	19.68
2026-05-22	18.74	19.75	19.68
2026-05-29	20.09	19.64	19.68
2026-06-05	18.59	19.51	19.67
2026-06-12	17.03	19.31	19.65
2026-06-19	16.52	19.14	19.63
2026-06-26	16.36	18.93	19.61
2026-07-03	17.03	18.77	19.59
2026-07-10	16.60	18.59	19.57
2026-07-17	17.04	18.42	19.55
2026-07-24	16.45	18.22	19.53
2026-07-31	19.38	18.15	19.53
2026-08-07	20.23	18.09	19.53
2026-08-14	20.04	18.06	19.53
2026-08-21	19.54	18.00	19.53
2026-08-28	20.87	18.05	19.54
2026-09-04	20.26	18.12	19.55
2026-09-11	20.10	18.19	19.55
2026-09-18	19.94	18.26	19.55
2026-09-25	20.97	18.37	19.56
2026-10-02	20.99	18.46	19.57
2026-10-09	21.78	18.59	19.59

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewAbove USD 21.78 0.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewBelow USD 16.36 -24.9% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing USD 16.36

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-06-26

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 8.4%

13-week return 31.2%

26-week return 32.3%

52-week return -4.5%

From 52-week high -10.0%

26-week volatility 41.3%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Above USD 21.78

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Below USD 16.36

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

2 of 2 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 10.0% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

Primary · 6.2% reversalPossible Wave 3 advancing

74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 4.4% reversalPossible Wave 3 advancing

64/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 6.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancingPrimary swing size · Leading51%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size26%

Possible Wave 3 advancingTactical swing size22%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible Wave 3 advancing

51% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 21.78 Fails below 16.36 Count stability Moderate · 52/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 15.83; Wave 2 16.36.

PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 20.09; Wave 3 21.78.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 88% of Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.27× Wave 1.

Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 10.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Primary degree uses a 6.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Tactical degree uses a 4.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 33.2%

15 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 16.36

Pivot from 2026-06-26

Nearest confirmed resistance 23.08

Pivot from 2025-11-14

30-week trend 18.59

Price is 17.2% from trend

Fair Value reference 19.59

Price is 11.2% from Fair Value

52-week range position 73%

15.20 low · 24.21 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

7 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 0 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

100% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 7 readings support the selected direction; 0 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

17.2% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack

Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+1.1

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+80.6

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.0

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+22.6

Balance of readings Constructive

7 constructive, 0 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This supports the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This supports the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+53 weeks

10w bandEstimated 12w · Cresting

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 12.8 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 15w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 10.2 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 50w · Rising

15/100Repeat fit · 3.1 cycles of history

Trough: 13 Nov–20 Aug 2027 (+5–45w)Crest: 8 Jan–15 Oct 2027 (+13–53w)

80w bandEstimated 80w · Troughing

Fewer than two estimated cycles

0/100Repeat fit · 1.9 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 15/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 rising alignment · 25/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low25 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high33 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough1w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough3w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score15/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough25w

Possible next low5–45w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 80w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough10w

Possible next low-

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 7.1% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 10.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Trend extension
Price is 17.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.
Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.

Downside risk check

Contained

26/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension17/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk4/15

Count instability5/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low15.20

52-week high24.21

Annualised volatility41.3%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range5.4%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-7.1%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume52%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

35% constructive

6 of 17 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

12% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Only options information is available

Options: Bullish · 47/100 conviction · ±% expected move

Stored options pressure is bullish with 47/100 conviction.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs SPY	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	420	64%	0.6%	-0.5%	-5.9% to 6.6%
13 weeks	142	69%	1.9%	-1.1%	-11.6% to 16.0%
26 weeks	76	67%	3.2%	-2.8%	-11.1% to 20.1%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +3.3% across 23 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

24 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

3.3%

13w

3.0%

26w

-5.3%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	23	78%	3.3%	-4.6% to 6.1%
13 weeks	21	71%	3.0%	-13.2% to 13.8%
26 weeks	21	38%	-5.3%	-30.2% to 14.3%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality79/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 59/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 67/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 6.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2025-11-14	Confirmed	High	23.08	-	0 weeks
2026-03-27	Confirmed	Low	15.83	-31.4%	19 weeks
2026-05-29	Confirmed	High	20.09	26.9%	9 weeks
2026-06-26	Confirmed	Low	16.36	-18.6%	4 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	High	21.78	33.2%	15 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

MSFYWave & cycle analysis

The wave count points to an advance

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

35% constructive

Only options information is available

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

35% constructive

Only options information is available

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗