SES · Energy · Weekly analysis

594Wave & cycle analysis

CapAllianz Holdings Limited

Latest close SGD 0.002 Week ending 25 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

No clear wave pattern yet

There is no leading pattern that meets the wave rules. Use the trend and other readings for context while more swings develop.

48/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Observing Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countCycle turn-up candidate

No wave count meets the rules yet. The chart still shows price, trend and confirmed swings.

Other readingsUse the other readings for context

3 of 7 available readings are positive and 4 are negative. There is no leading wave direction to compare them with.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

Wait for a pattern that meets the wave rules. A label should not be forced onto every price move.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in SGD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-06	0.004	0.001767	0.002481
2023-10-13	0.002	0.0018	0.002487
2023-10-20	0.002	0.0018	0.002487
2023-10-27	0.002	0.001833	0.002487
2023-11-03	0.002	0.001867	0.002487
2023-11-10	0.002	0.0019	0.002487
2023-11-17	0.002	0.0019	0.002487
2023-11-24	0.002	0.001933	0.002487
2023-12-01	0.002	0.001967	0.002487
2023-12-08	0.002	0.002	0.002487
2023-12-15	0.002	0.002033	0.002487
2023-12-22	0.002	0.002033	0.002487
2023-12-29	0.002	0.002033	0.002487
2024-01-05	0.001	0.002	0.002481
2024-01-12	0.002	0.002	0.002474
2024-01-19	0.001	0.002	0.002462
2024-01-26	0.002	0.002	0.002455
2024-02-02	0.001	0.001967	0.002442
2024-02-09	0.002	0.001967	0.002436
2024-02-16	0.002	0.001967	0.002417
2024-02-23	0.002	0.002	0.002385
2024-03-01	0.002	0.002	0.002365
2024-03-08	0.002	0.002	0.002346
2024-03-15	0.001	0.002	0.002321
2024-03-22	0.002	0.002	0.002301
2024-03-29	0.002	0.001967	0.002282
2024-04-05	0.002	0.001967	0.002263
2024-04-12	0.003	0.001967	0.00225
2024-04-19	0.003	0.002	0.002237
2024-04-26	0.002	0.002	0.002218
2024-05-03	0.002	0.001933	0.002205
2024-05-10	0.002	0.001933	0.002186
2024-05-17	0.002	0.001933	0.002167
2024-05-24	0.003	0.001967	0.00216
2024-05-31	0.003	0.002	0.002147
2024-06-07	0.002	0.002	0.002128
2024-06-14	0.002	0.002	0.002115
2024-06-21	0.002	0.002	0.002109
2024-06-28	0.002	0.002	0.002103
2024-07-05	0.001	0.001967	0.00209
2024-07-12	0.002	0.001967	0.002083
2024-07-19	0.003	0.002	0.002083
2024-07-26	0.003	0.002033	0.002077
2024-08-02	0.001	0.002033	0.002058
2024-08-09	0.002	0.002033	0.002045
2024-08-16	0.002	0.002067	0.002038
2024-08-23	0.003	0.0021	0.002038
2024-08-30	0.002	0.002133	0.002032
2024-09-06	0.002	0.002133	0.002019
2024-09-13	0.002	0.002133	0.002013
2024-09-20	0.002	0.002133	0.002006
2024-09-27	0.002	0.002133	0.002
2024-10-04	0.003	0.002167	0.002
2024-10-11	0.002	0.0022	0.001994
2024-10-18	0.001	0.002167	0.001981
2024-10-25	0.002	0.002167	0.001974
2024-11-01	0.002	0.002167	0.001968
2024-11-08	0.002	0.002133	0.001962
2024-11-15	0.002	0.0021	0.001955
2024-11-22	0.002	0.0021	0.001955
2024-11-29	0.002	0.0021	0.001949
2024-12-06	0.002	0.0021	0.001942
2024-12-13	0.002	0.0021	0.001936
2024-12-20	0.001	0.002033	0.001923
2024-12-27	0.002	0.002	0.001923
2025-01-03	0.002	0.002	0.001917
2025-01-10	0.002	0.002	0.00191
2025-01-17	0.001	0.001967	0.001897
2025-01-24	0.002	0.001967	0.001891
2025-01-31	0.002	0.002	0.001891
2025-02-07	0.001	0.001967	0.001885
2025-02-14	0.001	0.0019	0.001872
2025-02-21	0.002	0.001867	0.001865
2025-02-28	0.002	0.0019	0.001865
2025-03-07	0.002	0.0019	0.001865
2025-03-14	0.001	0.001867	0.001859
2025-03-21	0.002	0.001833	0.001859
2025-03-28	0.002	0.001833	0.001859
2025-04-04	0.001	0.0018	0.001853
2025-04-11	0.002	0.0018	0.001853
2025-04-18	0.002	0.0018	0.001859
2025-04-25	0.002	0.0018	0.001859
2025-05-02	0.002	0.001767	0.001859
2025-05-09	0.002	0.001767	0.001859
2025-05-16	0.003	0.001833	0.001865
2025-05-23	0.002	0.001833	0.001865
2025-05-30	0.002	0.001833	0.001865
2025-06-06	0.003	0.001867	0.001872
2025-06-13	0.002	0.001867	0.001872
2025-06-20	0.002	0.001867	0.001872
2025-06-27	0.003	0.0019	0.001878
2025-07-04	0.002	0.0019	0.001878
2025-07-11	0.002	0.0019	0.001878
2025-07-18	0.003	0.001967	0.001885
2025-07-25	0.003	0.002	0.001891
2025-08-01	0.003	0.002033	0.001897
2025-08-08	0.003	0.002067	0.001904
2025-08-15	0.002	0.0021	0.001904
2025-08-22	0.002	0.0021	0.001904
2025-08-29	0.001	0.002067	0.001904
2025-09-05	0.001	0.002067	0.001897
2025-09-12	0.001	0.002067	0.001891
2025-09-19	0.002	0.002067	0.001891
2025-09-26	0.002	0.002067	0.001891
2025-10-03	0.002	0.002067	0.001891
2025-10-10	0.002	0.0021	0.001891
2025-10-17	0.002	0.0021	0.001897
2025-10-24	0.002	0.0021	0.001897
2025-10-31	0.002	0.002133	0.001897
2025-11-07	0.003	0.002167	0.001904
2025-11-14	0.003	0.0022	0.00191
2025-11-21	0.002	0.0022	0.001917
2025-11-28	0.002	0.0022	0.001917
2025-12-05	0.002	0.0022	0.001923
2025-12-12	0.002	0.002167	0.001923
2025-12-19	0.002	0.002167	0.001923
2025-12-26	0.002	0.002167	0.001923
2026-01-02	0.001	0.0021	0.001923
2026-01-09	0.002	0.0021	0.001929
2026-01-16	0.002	0.0021	0.001936
2026-01-23	0.002	0.002067	0.001936
2026-01-30	0.002	0.002067	0.001942
2026-02-06	0.002	0.002067	0.001942
2026-02-13	0.002	0.002033	0.001942
2026-02-20	0.002	0.002	0.001942
2026-02-27	0.001	0.001933	0.001942
2026-03-06	0.001	0.001867	0.001942
2026-03-13	0.001	0.001833	0.001942
2026-03-20	0.002	0.001833	0.001942
2026-03-27	0.001	0.001833	0.001942
2026-04-03	0.001	0.001833	0.001942
2026-04-10	0.002	0.001867	0.001949
2026-04-17	0.002	0.001867	0.001949
2026-04-24	0.002	0.001867	0.001955
2026-05-01	0.002	0.001867	0.001962
2026-05-08	0.002	0.001867	0.001968
2026-05-15	0.002	0.001867	0.001974
2026-05-22	0.002	0.001867	0.001974
2026-05-29	0.002	0.001867	0.001974
2026-06-05	0.002	0.001833	0.001974
2026-06-12	0.001	0.001767	0.001968
2026-06-19	0.001	0.001733	0.001968
2026-06-26	0.002	0.001733	0.001968
2026-07-03	0.002	0.001733	0.001968
2026-07-10	0.001	0.0017	0.001962
2026-07-17	0.002	0.0017	0.001962
2026-07-24	0.001	0.001667	0.001962
2026-07-31	0.002	0.0017	0.001962
2026-08-07	0.002	0.0017	0.001962
2026-08-14	0.002	0.0017	0.001968
2026-08-21	0.001	0.001667	0.001962
2026-08-28	0.001	0.001633	0.001949
2026-09-04	0.002	0.001633	0.001949
2026-09-11	0.001	0.0016	0.001936
2026-09-18	0.001	0.001567	0.001929
2026-09-25	0.002	0.0016	0.001929

4-week return 100.0%

13-week return 0.0%

26-week return 100.0%

52-week return 0.0%

From 52-week high -33.3%

26-week volatility 368.2%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

No rule-valid wave count is available. Compare the trend and cycle evidence while a clearer structure develops.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

0 of 0 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 8.0% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

Primary · 5.0% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

Tactical · 3.5% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

No leading count meets the wave rules yet.

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

No valid count

There is no leading pattern to test yet. Use the other readings and wait for more price swings.

Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeNo valid count

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 100.0%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.001

Pivot from 2026-09-18

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.003

Pivot from 2025-11-14

30-week trend 0.0016

Price is 25.0% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.001929

Price is 3.7% from Fair Value

52-week range position 50%

0.001 low · 0.003 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

3 of 7 available readings are positive and 4 are negative. There is no leading wave direction to compare them with.

57% directional agreement

Use the other readings for context.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

25.0% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-2.5

Market activity

Participation is weak

-9.8

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.0

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+100.0

Balance of readings Defensive

3 constructive, 4 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 25 Sep 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+89 weeks

10w bandEstimated 11w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 25.1 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 24w · Falling

21/100Repeat fit · 11.5 cycles of history

Trough: 29 Jan–9 Apr 2027 (+18–28w)Crest: 15 Jan–26 Mar 2027 (+16–26w)

40w bandEstimated 46w · Falling

11/100Repeat fit · 6.0 cycles of history

Trough: 7 May–5 Nov 2027 (+32–58w)Crest: 22 Jan–23 Jul 2027 (+17–43w)

80w bandEstimated 90w · Falling

16/100Repeat fit · 3.1 cycles of history

Trough: 1 Oct–28 Apr 2028 (+53–83w)Crest: 12 Nov–9 Jun 2028 (+59–89w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 21/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 rising alignment · 75/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low23 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high21 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 11w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough1w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 24w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score21/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough1w

Possible next low18–28w

Typical / observed cycle40w / 46w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score11/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough1w

Possible next low32–58w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 90w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score16/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough22w

Possible next low53–83w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 50.0% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 33.3% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Trend extension
Price is 25.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

37/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension20/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk11/15

Count instability6/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.001

52-week high0.003

Annualised volatility368.2%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range53.8%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-50.0%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume367%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

21% constructive

4 of 19 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

26% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^STI	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	461	34%	-2.3%	-3.5%	-17.7% to 15.0%
13 weeks	186	36%	-4.8%	-8.2%	-23.8% to 29.2%
26 weeks	110	40%	-2.5%	-10.7%	-28.4% to 37.6%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 35 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

35 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

0.0%

13w

0.0%

26w

0.0%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	35	14%	0.0%	-50.0% to 100.0%
13 weeks	32	16%	0.0%	-50.0% to 100.0%
26 weeks	29	28%	0.0%	-50.0% to 100.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-09-25 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2026-04-03	Confirmed	Low	0.001	-50.0%	2 weeks
2026-06-05	Confirmed	High	0.002	100.0%	9 weeks
2026-06-19	Confirmed	Low	0.001	-50.0%	2 weeks
2026-07-03	Confirmed	High	0.002	100.0%	2 weeks
2026-07-10	Confirmed	Low	0.001	-50.0%	1 weeks
2026-07-17	Confirmed	High	0.002	100.0%	1 weeks
2026-07-24	Confirmed	Low	0.001	-50.0%	1 weeks
2026-08-14	Confirmed	High	0.002	100.0%	3 weeks
2026-08-28	Confirmed	Low	0.001	-50.0%	2 weeks
2026-09-04	Confirmed	High	0.002	100.0%	1 weeks
2026-09-18	Confirmed	Low	0.001	-50.0%	2 weeks
2026-09-25	Forming	High	0.002	100.0%	1 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

594Wave & cycle analysis

No clear wave pattern yet

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

No valid count

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

21% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

No valid count

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

21% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗