LSE · Technology · Weekly analysis

ARCWave & cycle analysis

Arcontech Group plc

Latest close GBP 0.825 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

A rebound is being tested

The wave pattern treats the recent rise as a rebound within a larger decline. A fresh fall is still something to confirm.

39/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

A, B and C label a three-part correction. The outlined last point is still forming.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 3 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in GBP · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-20	0.7793	0.7156	0.9643
2023-10-27	0.7839	0.7188	0.9593
2023-11-03	0.7699	0.7218	0.9537
2023-11-10	0.7979	0.7257	0.9479
2023-11-17	0.8166	0.7304	0.9418
2023-11-24	0.8166	0.7356	0.9361
2023-12-01	0.8866	0.7434	0.9308
2023-12-08	0.8866	0.7512	0.926
2023-12-15	0.8866	0.759	0.9213
2023-12-22	0.8866	0.7668	0.917
2023-12-29	0.8866	0.7749	0.9123
2024-01-05	0.8866	0.7835	0.9077
2024-01-12	0.8866	0.7936	0.9031
2024-01-19	0.8866	0.8041	0.8986
2024-01-26	0.8726	0.8136	0.8946
2024-02-02	0.8539	0.8228	0.8897
2024-02-09	0.8493	0.8319	0.8847
2024-02-16	0.8493	0.841	0.8798
2024-02-23	1.01	0.85	0.8776
2024-03-01	1.01	0.8584	0.8741
2024-03-08	0.9846	0.865	0.8711
2024-03-15	0.9799	0.8709	0.8683
2024-03-22	1.04	0.8795	0.8661
2024-03-29	0.9986	0.8864	0.8636
2024-04-05	0.9846	0.8903	0.8607
2024-04-12	0.9939	0.8931	0.8578
2024-04-19	0.9939	0.8958	0.8545
2024-04-26	0.9799	0.899	0.8515
2024-05-03	0.9659	0.9018	0.8485
2024-05-10	0.9426	0.9054	0.8453
2024-05-17	0.9333	0.9106	0.8421
2024-05-24	0.9333	0.9155	0.8388
2024-05-31	0.9193	0.9205	0.8355
2024-06-07	0.9146	0.9244	0.8324
2024-06-14	0.9006	0.9272	0.8292
2024-06-21	0.8959	0.9298	0.826
2024-06-28	0.8633	0.9291	0.8228
2024-07-05	0.8586	0.9281	0.8197
2024-07-12	0.8493	0.9269	0.8166
2024-07-19	0.8259	0.9249	0.8133
2024-07-26	0.9193	0.926	0.8105
2024-08-02	0.9099	0.9267	0.8073
2024-08-09	0.9099	0.9275	0.8038
2024-08-16	0.9286	0.9289	0.8007
2024-08-23	0.9146	0.9303	0.7976
2024-08-30	0.9146	0.9323	0.7961
2024-09-06	1.16	0.9426	0.7953
2024-09-13	1.16	0.953	0.7944
2024-09-20	1.12	0.9569	0.7932
2024-09-27	1.17	0.9622	0.7925
2024-10-04	1.11	0.9663	0.7922
2024-10-11	1.05	0.9686	0.7921
2024-10-18	1.09	0.9702	0.7923
2024-10-25	1.06	0.9722	0.7924
2024-11-01	1.05	0.9743	0.792
2024-11-08	1.10	0.9778	0.792
2024-11-15	1.22	0.9854	0.7926
2024-11-22	1.19	0.9925	0.7933
2024-11-29	1.20	1.00	0.7958
2024-12-06	1.21	1.01	0.7986
2024-12-13	1.21	1.02	0.8017
2024-12-20	1.17	1.03	0.8046
2024-12-27	1.16	1.03	0.8076
2025-01-03	1.15	1.04	0.8107
2025-01-10	1.17	1.05	0.814
2025-01-17	1.14	1.06	0.8172
2025-01-24	1.13	1.07	0.8195
2025-01-31	1.04	1.07	0.8207
2025-02-07	1.03	1.08	0.822
2025-02-14	1.04	1.09	0.8234
2025-02-21	1.04	1.09	0.8253
2025-02-28	0.7942	1.09	0.8258
2025-03-07	0.799	1.08	0.8265
2025-03-14	0.7797	1.08	0.8272
2025-03-21	0.7797	1.07	0.8279
2025-03-28	0.7701	1.07	0.8285
2025-04-04	0.7557	1.06	0.8291
2025-04-11	0.746	1.04	0.8296
2025-04-18	0.7412	1.03	0.8299
2025-04-25	0.746	1.02	0.8303
2025-05-02	0.746	1.00	0.8306
2025-05-09	0.7508	0.9936	0.831
2025-05-16	0.8038	0.9841	0.8318
2025-05-23	0.8327	0.9766	0.8328
2025-05-30	0.8375	0.9695	0.8338
2025-06-06	0.8038	0.9597	0.8346
2025-06-13	0.8182	0.9463	0.8357
2025-06-20	0.8423	0.9345	0.8371
2025-06-27	0.8567	0.923	0.8384
2025-07-04	0.8471	0.911	0.8395
2025-07-11	0.8808	0.90	0.841
2025-07-18	0.8567	0.8895	0.8423
2025-07-25	0.8615	0.8794	0.8437
2025-08-01	0.8615	0.8699	0.8451
2025-08-08	0.8567	0.8595	0.8464
2025-08-15	0.8567	0.8502	0.8476
2025-08-22	0.8808	0.8418	0.849
2025-08-29	0.8712	0.8362	0.8503
2025-09-05	0.8519	0.8303	0.8514
2025-09-12	0.9626	0.8277	0.8531
2025-09-19	1.03	0.8275	0.8553
2025-09-26	1.00	0.8344	0.8572
2025-10-03	1.08	0.8436	0.8597
2025-10-10	1.00	0.8511	0.8617
2025-10-17	0.94	0.8565	0.8634
2025-10-24	0.94	0.8621	0.8646
2025-10-31	0.94	0.8683	0.8659
2025-11-07	0.925	0.8743	0.867
2025-11-14	0.92	0.8802	0.8681
2025-11-21	0.905	0.8855	0.8692
2025-11-28	0.875	0.8898	0.8701
2025-12-05	0.865	0.8936	0.8711
2025-12-12	0.845	0.895	0.872
2025-12-19	0.835	0.8951	0.8728
2025-12-26	0.845	0.8953	0.8736
2026-01-02	0.845	0.8967	0.8745
2026-01-09	0.875	0.8986	0.8759
2026-01-16	0.855	0.899	0.8772
2026-01-23	0.84	0.8985	0.8784
2026-01-30	0.835	0.898	0.8797
2026-02-06	0.785	0.8949	0.8806
2026-02-13	0.82	0.8936	0.8817
2026-02-20	0.82	0.8922	0.8829
2026-02-27	0.855	0.892	0.8839
2026-03-06	0.815	0.8906	0.8843
2026-03-13	0.79	0.8884	0.8846
2026-03-20	0.765	0.8846	0.8849
2026-03-27	0.75	0.8805	0.8853
2026-04-03	0.73	0.8765	0.8856
2026-04-10	0.745	0.8692	0.8861
2026-04-17	0.75	0.8597	0.8866
2026-04-24	0.775	0.8522	0.8873
2026-05-01	0.775	0.8422	0.8881
2026-05-08	0.775	0.8345	0.8888
2026-05-15	0.765	0.8287	0.8896
2026-05-22	0.74	0.822	0.8901
2026-05-29	0.755	0.8158	0.8908
2026-06-05	0.755	0.8102	0.8916
2026-06-12	0.755	0.8047	0.8927
2026-06-19	0.775	0.8003	0.894
2026-06-26	0.775	0.797	0.8953
2026-07-03	0.835	0.796	0.8969
2026-07-10	0.825	0.7953	0.8985
2026-07-17	0.795	0.794	0.8999
2026-07-24	0.79	0.7922	0.9002
2026-07-31	0.79	0.7903	0.9004
2026-08-07	0.795	0.7877	0.9005
2026-08-14	0.795	0.7857	0.9005
2026-08-21	0.795	0.7842	0.9005
2026-08-28	0.7483	0.7813	0.9003
2026-09-04	0.7483	0.7801	0.8995
2026-09-11	0.7721	0.7785	0.8986
2026-09-18	0.7626	0.7765	0.8976
2026-09-25	0.7864	0.7743	0.897
2026-10-02	0.825	0.7746	0.8967
2026-10-09	0.825	0.7758	0.8966

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewBelow GBP 0.7483 -9.3% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewAbove GBP 0.825 0.0% from the latest close · Forming

This is the forming swing’s current endpoint. It can move as the swing extends; it is not a fixed stop price.

Earlier confirmed swing GBP 0.835

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-07-03

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 6.9%

13-week return 0.0%

26-week return 10.7%

52-week return -17.9%

From 52-week high -18.3%

26-week volatility 19.3%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Below GBP 0.7483

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above GBP 0.825

This is a forming correction endpoint and can move. Use the earlier confirmed swings for wider context.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 8.6% reversalBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

68/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 5.4% reversalBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

68/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 3.8% reversalBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

67/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.4% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size · Leading38%

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size25%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingStrategic swing size38%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

38% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.7483 Fails above 0.825 Count stability Moderate · 52/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 0.73; Wave B 0.7483.

PassWave C moves in the direction of Wave AA length 0.10; C length 0.08.

GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 0.73× Wave A.

Strategic degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Strategic degree uses a 8.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Primary degree uses a 5.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Tactical degree uses a 3.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 10.3%

5 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.7483

Pivot from 2026-09-04

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.835

Pivot from 2026-07-03

30-week trend 0.7758

Price is 6.3% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.8966

Price is -8.0% from Fair Value

52-week range position 40%

0.703 low · 1.01 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

86% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 1 readings support the selected direction; 6 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

6.3% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-1.2

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+19.3

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.4

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+4.4

Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 1 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+57 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 15w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 50w · Troughing

27/100Repeat fit · 5.5 cycles of history

Trough: 19 Feb–3 Sep 2027 (+19–47w)Crest: 30 Apr–12 Nov 2027 (+29–57w)

80w bandEstimated 60w · Troughing

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 4.6 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 27/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 rising alignment · 0/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low33 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high43 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough5w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough5w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score27/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough17w

Possible next low19–47w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough16w

Possible next low-

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 43.5% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 18.3% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Count instability
The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.
Trend extension
Price is 6.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

Downside risk check

Contained

6/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension1/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk0/15

Count instability5/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.703

52-week high1.01

Annualised volatility19.3%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range4.5%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-43.5%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume34%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

58% constructive

14 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

46% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	572	50%	0.0%	-0.2%	-11.2% to 15.2%
13 weeks	225	50%	0.0%	-0.7%	-22.3% to 23.5%
26 weeks	131	50%	-0.4%	-4.4%	-29.6% to 39.1%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -2.8% across 62 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

62 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-2.8%

13w

-5.8%

26w

-9.3%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	62	24%	-2.8%	-14.7% to 16.7%
13 weeks	60	38%	-5.8%	-35.5% to 17.4%
26 weeks	59	41%	-9.3%	-34.0% to 29.8%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.4% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2024-07-19	Confirmed	Low	0.8259	-20.6%	17 weeks
2024-09-27	Confirmed	High	1.17	41.2%	10 weeks
2024-11-01	Confirmed	Low	1.05	-10.1%	5 weeks
2024-11-15	Confirmed	High	1.22	16.5%	2 weeks
2025-04-18	Confirmed	Low	0.7412	-39.4%	22 weeks
2025-10-03	Confirmed	High	1.08	45.0%	24 weeks
2026-02-06	Confirmed	Low	0.785	-27.0%	18 weeks
2026-02-27	Confirmed	High	0.855	8.9%	3 weeks
2026-04-03	Confirmed	Low	0.73	-14.6%	5 weeks
2026-07-03	Confirmed	High	0.835	14.4%	13 weeks
2026-09-04	Confirmed	Low	0.7483	-10.4%	9 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	High	0.825	10.3%	5 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

ARCWave & cycle analysis

A rebound is being tested

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

58% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

58% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗