ASX · Consumer Defensive · Weekly analysis

BUBWave & cycle analysis

Bubs Australia Limited

Latest close AUD 0.105 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

42/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

4 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 4 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-20	0.17	0.191	0.4119
2023-10-27	0.165	0.1888	0.4086
2023-11-03	0.17	0.1868	0.4055
2023-11-10	0.175	0.1857	0.4022
2023-11-17	0.165	0.1845	0.3988
2023-11-24	0.135	0.1825	0.3952
2023-12-01	0.12	0.1805	0.3918
2023-12-08	0.125	0.1783	0.3887
2023-12-15	0.13	0.176	0.3858
2023-12-22	0.13	0.1742	0.3829
2023-12-29	0.13	0.1725	0.38
2024-01-05	0.13	0.1712	0.3772
2024-01-12	0.125	0.1702	0.3745
2024-01-19	0.12	0.1677	0.3716
2024-01-26	0.11	0.1653	0.3683
2024-02-02	0.115	0.1615	0.3649
2024-02-09	0.115	0.1572	0.3617
2024-02-16	0.12	0.1528	0.3588
2024-02-23	0.13	0.1505	0.3561
2024-03-01	0.12	0.148	0.3537
2024-03-08	0.115	0.1455	0.3511
2024-03-15	0.135	0.1435	0.3487
2024-03-22	0.14	0.1422	0.3464
2024-03-29	0.17	0.1422	0.3445
2024-04-05	0.165	0.1422	0.3424
2024-04-12	0.15	0.1417	0.3403
2024-04-19	0.145	0.1412	0.3384
2024-04-26	0.145	0.1405	0.3368
2024-05-03	0.145	0.1398	0.3354
2024-05-10	0.15	0.1387	0.3342
2024-05-17	0.145	0.1378	0.3329
2024-05-24	0.145	0.1372	0.3316
2024-05-31	0.13	0.1358	0.3302
2024-06-07	0.12	0.134	0.3285
2024-06-14	0.14	0.1332	0.3263
2024-06-21	0.125	0.1328	0.3241
2024-06-28	0.13	0.1332	0.322
2024-07-05	0.13	0.1333	0.3197
2024-07-12	0.135	0.1335	0.3174
2024-07-19	0.13	0.1335	0.3151
2024-07-26	0.135	0.1337	0.3132
2024-08-02	0.13	0.1337	0.3114
2024-08-09	0.12	0.1335	0.3096
2024-08-16	0.12	0.1335	0.3077
2024-08-23	0.13	0.1342	0.3058
2024-08-30	0.12	0.1343	0.3039
2024-09-06	0.125	0.1347	0.3022
2024-09-13	0.12	0.1347	0.3007
2024-09-20	0.12	0.1343	0.2992
2024-09-27	0.13	0.1347	0.2978
2024-10-04	0.135	0.1353	0.2964
2024-10-11	0.13	0.1352	0.2942
2024-10-18	0.13	0.1348	0.292
2024-10-25	0.13	0.1335	0.2895
2024-11-01	0.12	0.132	0.2869
2024-11-08	0.115	0.1308	0.284
2024-11-15	0.115	0.1298	0.2812
2024-11-22	0.115	0.1288	0.2786
2024-11-29	0.115	0.1278	0.2762
2024-12-06	0.12	0.1268	0.2741
2024-12-13	0.105	0.1255	0.2721
2024-12-20	0.105	0.1242	0.2699
2024-12-27	0.105	0.1233	0.2675
2025-01-03	0.10	0.1227	0.2652
2025-01-10	0.097	0.1212	0.2629
2025-01-17	0.097	0.1203	0.2606
2025-01-24	0.125	0.1201	0.2586
2025-01-31	0.115	0.1196	0.2565
2025-02-07	0.115	0.119	0.2543
2025-02-14	0.12	0.1186	0.2523
2025-02-21	0.135	0.1186	0.2505
2025-02-28	0.135	0.1188	0.2486
2025-03-07	0.13	0.1191	0.2467
2025-03-14	0.12	0.1191	0.2448
2025-03-21	0.13	0.1191	0.2428
2025-03-28	0.13	0.1195	0.2406
2025-04-04	0.12	0.1193	0.2381
2025-04-11	0.12	0.1193	0.2358
2025-04-18	0.12	0.1193	0.2335
2025-04-25	0.12	0.119	0.2315
2025-05-02	0.115	0.1183	0.2299
2025-05-09	0.115	0.1178	0.2283
2025-05-16	0.12	0.1175	0.2264
2025-05-23	0.13	0.1175	0.2241
2025-05-30	0.135	0.118	0.2211
2025-06-06	0.14	0.1188	0.2179
2025-06-13	0.16	0.1203	0.2148
2025-06-20	0.16	0.1218	0.2117
2025-06-27	0.17	0.1236	0.2089
2025-07-04	0.185	0.1258	0.2065
2025-07-11	0.17	0.128	0.2043
2025-07-18	0.17	0.1301	0.2016
2025-07-25	0.17	0.1323	0.1988
2025-08-01	0.155	0.1341	0.196
2025-08-08	0.165	0.1364	0.193
2025-08-15	0.165	0.1387	0.1903
2025-08-22	0.155	0.1397	0.1876
2025-08-29	0.18	0.1418	0.1852
2025-09-05	0.165	0.1435	0.1829
2025-09-12	0.155	0.1447	0.1805
2025-09-19	0.15	0.1452	0.1783
2025-09-26	0.15	0.1457	0.176
2025-10-03	0.145	0.1462	0.1736
2025-10-10	0.15	0.1472	0.1715
2025-10-17	0.14	0.1475	0.1695
2025-10-24	0.155	0.1483	0.1677
2025-10-31	0.155	0.1495	0.1663
2025-11-07	0.15	0.1505	0.1649
2025-11-14	0.145	0.1513	0.1636
2025-11-21	0.14	0.152	0.1622
2025-11-28	0.14	0.1528	0.1611
2025-12-05	0.145	0.1538	0.16
2025-12-12	0.14	0.1545	0.159
2025-12-19	0.135	0.1547	0.1579
2025-12-26	0.135	0.1547	0.1569
2026-01-02	0.14	0.1547	0.156
2026-01-09	0.135	0.1538	0.155
2026-01-16	0.135	0.153	0.1538
2026-01-23	0.135	0.1518	0.1524
2026-01-30	0.135	0.1502	0.1514
2026-02-06	0.125	0.1487	0.1503
2026-02-13	0.125	0.1472	0.1493
2026-02-20	0.125	0.1457	0.1482
2026-02-27	0.12	0.1445	0.1474
2026-03-06	0.1225	0.1431	0.1467
2026-03-13	0.12	0.1416	0.146
2026-03-20	0.11	0.1401	0.1452
2026-03-27	0.10	0.1374	0.1444
2026-04-03	0.11	0.1356	0.1436
2026-04-10	0.105	0.1339	0.1429
2026-04-17	0.11	0.1326	0.1423
2026-04-24	0.105	0.1311	0.1418
2026-05-01	0.10	0.1296	0.1413
2026-05-08	0.10	0.1279	0.1407
2026-05-15	0.099	0.1266	0.14
2026-05-22	0.093	0.1245	0.1394
2026-05-29	0.092	0.1224	0.1389
2026-06-05	0.087	0.1203	0.1383
2026-06-12	0.084	0.1182	0.1379
2026-06-19	0.085	0.1164	0.1372
2026-06-26	0.079	0.1144	0.1365
2026-07-03	0.084	0.1124	0.1356
2026-07-10	0.08	0.1104	0.1345
2026-07-17	0.08	0.1085	0.1335
2026-07-24	0.079	0.1066	0.1327
2026-07-31	0.085	0.1048	0.132
2026-08-07	0.093	0.1034	0.1314
2026-08-14	0.094	0.102	0.1307
2026-08-21	0.092	0.1006	0.1301
2026-08-28	0.084	0.0989	0.1296
2026-09-04	0.10	0.0981	0.1292
2026-09-11	0.115	0.0978	0.1289
2026-09-18	0.12	0.0976	0.1286
2026-09-25	0.105	0.0971	0.1282
2026-10-02	0.099	0.0963	0.1278
2026-10-09	0.105	0.0958	0.1273

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewBelow AUD 0.105 0.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewAbove AUD 0.12 14.3% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing AUD 0.12

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-09-18

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return -8.7%

13-week return 31.2%

26-week return 0.0%

52-week return -30.0%

From 52-week high -36.4%

26-week volatility 51.4%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Below AUD 0.105

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above AUD 0.12

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

2 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 19.0% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 11.9% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 8.3% reversalFive-wave advance mature

95/100 pattern fit

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 11.9% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading4%

Five-wave advance matureTactical swing size92%

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size4%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

4% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.105 Fails above 0.12 Count stability Low · 36/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.12; Wave 2 0.105.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 0% of Wave 1.

Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 19.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 11.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeFive-wave advance mature

Tactical degree uses a 8.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 0.0%

2 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.079

Pivot from 2026-07-24

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.12

Pivot from 2026-09-18

30-week trend 0.0958

Price is 9.6% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.1273

Price is -17.5% from Fair Value

52-week range position 33%

0.076 low · 0.165 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

57% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 2 readings support the selected direction; 4 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

9.6% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising

Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-6.2

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+71.2

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.1

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-12.5

Balance of readings Constructive

4 constructive, 2 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+66 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Cresting

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 15w · Cresting

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 37w · Rising

6/100Repeat fit · 7.5 cycles of history

Trough: 12 Feb–21 May 2027 (+18–32w)Crest: 13 Nov–19 Feb 2027 (+5–19w)

80w bandEstimated 62w · Troughing

5/100Repeat fit · 4.5 cycles of history

Trough: 16 Jul–14 Jan 2028 (+40–66w)Crest: 9 Oct–19 Feb 2027 (+0–19w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 6/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

50/100 rising alignment · 50/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low25 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high6 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough6w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough6w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 37w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score6/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough12w

Possible next low18–32w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 62w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score5/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough9w

Possible next low40–66w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 83.8% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 36.4% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 50/100.
Trend extension
Price is 9.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

20/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension6/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk8/15

Count instability6/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.076

52-week high0.165

Annualised volatility51.4%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range7.7%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-83.8%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume245%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

48% constructive

11 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

35% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	171	49%	0.0%	-1.3%	-10.7% to 9.9%
13 weeks	90	46%	-0.6%	-1.9%	-18.5% to 22.0%
26 weeks	78	53%	0.5%	-3.1%	-21.2% to 35.7%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -3.6% across 34 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

35 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-3.6%

13w

-10.3%

26w

-17.2%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	34	27%	-3.6%	-22.5% to 43.5%
13 weeks	31	13%	-10.3%	-34.5% to 33.3%
26 weeks	31	16%	-17.2%	-52.0% to 37.5%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 11.9% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2024-09-20	Confirmed	Low	0.12	-14.3%	14 weeks
2024-10-04	Confirmed	High	0.135	12.5%	2 weeks
2025-01-17	Confirmed	Low	0.097	-28.1%	15 weeks
2025-02-28	Confirmed	High	0.135	39.2%	6 weeks
2025-05-09	Confirmed	Low	0.115	-14.8%	10 weeks
2025-07-04	Confirmed	High	0.185	60.9%	8 weeks
2025-08-22	Confirmed	Low	0.155	-16.2%	7 weeks
2025-08-29	Confirmed	High	0.18	16.1%	1 weeks
2026-07-24	Confirmed	Low	0.079	-56.1%	47 weeks
2026-09-18	Confirmed	High	0.12	51.9%	8 weeks
2026-09-25	Confirmed	Low	0.105	-12.5%	1 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	High	0.105	0.0%	2 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

BUBWave & cycle analysis

The wave count points to a decline

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

48% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

48% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗